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Thread: A novel concept...

  1. #61
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: A novel concept...

    Some important points were left out of this analysis. The basic premise of matching up relievers to batting order ignores counter moves, such as the effect of pinch hitting and the randomness of the game, whereby bad hitters are still hitters who can take walks, get hit by pitches, run into one and hit it a long way, etc. It was a very one-sided, static analysis.

    All the writer did was describe "how to burn your bullpen 101...in a game and over the course of the season." What I see being the difference in a successful bullpen year after year is its depth. It doesn't matter if you have one guy shouldering a heavy load, you are still going to need arms at some point in many games. The pecking order isn't really that big of a deal, because effectiveness will end up deciding that.

    And that is the problem with most of this theory, it purports that there is a correct way to manage the bullpen and that smart people will eventually find the holy grail (a science), when really it is more an art based on the quality, durability, and depth of arms in the pen. Usually when you see a manager trying something "outside the box," it is a case of "necessity is the mother of invention" rather than the manager being smarter than everyone else.
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    wlf WV (06-04-2013)

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  4. #62
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: A novel concept...

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Chapman in the seventh, LeCure in the eighth, Marshall in the ninth.

    Ondrusek in Louisville.

    As for when he warms up, he should be able to warm up as an inning deteriorates. And the number of "save situations" will be about the same; you'll just be looking for them in the seventh.
    And when LeCure comes back down to Earth, do we reshuffle the names to whoever has had a good run over the previous month or two?

  5. #63
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: A novel concept...

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    And when LeCure comes back down to Earth, do we reshuffle the names to whoever has had a good run over the previous month or two?
    Yes?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    *BaseClogger* (06-04-2013)

  7. #64
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: A novel concept...

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Yes?
    I don't believe that being reactionary on small samples is a smart way to manage.

  8. #65
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: A novel concept...

    Ok
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

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    *BaseClogger* (06-04-2013), fielder's choice (06-04-2013)

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    Re: A novel concept...

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    It would be interesting to see what the reactions would be if Chapman is brought in to face Braun in a one run game in the 7th and then have Braun beat Hoover or Ondrusek in the 9th.
    Personally, I would be too overjoyed that Chapman was actually used in an inning other than the 9th to be upset about the loss.

  11. #67
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: A novel concept...

    We could take the names out and just say, use your shutdown guy when there's something to shut down. Use your middle relievers in the middle. And use your No. 2 reliever, previously known as the setup man or closer in waiting, to give you a clean ninth. It's not as exotic as it seems.

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    Re: A novel concept...

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Chapman in the seventh, LeCure in the eighth, Marshall in the ninth.

    Ondrusek in Louisville.

    As for when he warms up, he should be able to warm up as an inning deteriorates. And the number of "save situations" will be about the same; you'll just be looking for them in the seventh.
    So let's work with real world examples to see if it makes sense. We start the 7th up 4-2, is the closer in, warming up, or neither? I'll guess neither for now. 1st guy gets out... still nothing? 2nd guy walks, is he warming up? 3rd guy doubles, 2nd and 3rd, now is he up? Surely, he's not warm right? next guy grounds out scoring 1, 4-3, man on 3rd. Is he warm now? Does he come in?

    What are the other guys doing? Are they warming up or is it just current pitcher or closer?

    Honestly, it sounds like chaos to me and with very little expected advantage.

  13. #69
    13 Belongs in Cooperstown Captain13's Avatar
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    Re: A novel concept...

    Quote Originally Posted by swaisuc View Post
    So let's work with real world examples to see if it makes sense. We start the 7th up 4-2, is the closer in, warming up, or neither? I'll guess neither for now. 1st guy gets out... still nothing? 2nd guy walks, is he warming up? 3rd guy doubles, 2nd and 3rd, now is he up? Surely, he's not warm right? next guy grounds out scoring 1, 4-3, man on 3rd. Is he warm now? Does he come in?

    What are the other guys doing? Are they warming up or is it just current pitcher or closer?

    Honestly, it sounds like chaos to me and with very little expected advantage.
    Don't ruin our perfectly good fantasy with real world situations. Before long you are going to mention that Chapman would likely be warming up several times a game and tire out more easily.
    What if this is as good as it gets?

  14. #70
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: A novel concept...

    Anyone know how many warm up pitches Chapman needs to get ready?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  15. #71
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: A novel concept...

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    We could take the names out and just say, use your shutdown guy when there's something to shut down. Use your middle relievers in the middle. And use your No. 2 reliever, previously known as the setup man or closer in waiting, to give you a clean ninth. It's not as exotic as it seems.
    I'm not even sure that sounds good in theory, let alone the practical implications. It also would not fit a thin bullpen very well. Then you have the warming up issue. You also have starters going fewer innings, so you're bringing in your best reliever in the 5-7 inning according to "when there's something to shut down." You'd be run out of town on a charger burning your best reliever in the middle innings night after night with this method. It just isn't a fit for the current era staff management. It also ignores the quality of the starting staff, which varies from team to team. I don't care how much you try to play around with the pecking order or how good a bullpen is, if your starters stink, the bullpen will eventually be toast as well.

    There are a lot of factors going into modern bullpen usage, which is really more a result of current wisdom and trying to apply it to managing a pitching staff than the ideas being thrown around in the article and by posters in this thread are appreciating. Much of what goes on daily in MLB is a domino effect moreso than managers being stubborn or "going by the book." Just like the lazy assertion that managers bring in their closer for "save situations," rather than acknowledging that often a 3 run lead in the 9th in the current era can evaporate pretty quickly, so they bring in their best reliever.
    Last edited by traderumor; 06-04-2013 at 02:33 PM.
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  16. #72
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: A novel concept...

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain13 View Post
    Don't ruin our perfectly good fantasy with real world situations. Before long you are going to mention that Chapman would likely be warming up several times a game and tire out more easily.
    Yup, every time there was "something to shut down." Imagine that. Sounds like something Gene Mauch would try.
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  17. #73
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swaisuc View Post
    So let's work with real world examples to see if it makes sense. We start the 7th up 4-2, is the closer in, warming up, or neither? I'll guess neither for now. 1st guy gets out... still nothing? 2nd guy walks, is he warming up? 3rd guy doubles, 2nd and 3rd, now is he up? Surely, he's not warm right? next guy grounds out scoring 1, 4-3, man on 3rd. Is he warm now? Does he come in?

    What are the other guys doing? Are they warming up or is it just current pitcher or closer?

    Honestly, it sounds like chaos to me and with very little expected advantage.
    Chaos? Maybe I lack fundamental understanding of how things work, but don't managers quite often have several pitchers warming up to prepare for given situations that might arise? Why would it be so complicated to have your shutdown arm prepare earlier in the game, just in case? Does a closer have to warm up in a more specific way for save or non-save situations? I would think not...
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  18. #74
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    Re: A novel concept...

    It doesn't have to be so drastic. There are some games where your starter is gassed, the inning is getting out of hand, you have someone warming, and you take the starter out. Who should that reliever be? Your best or your "front-end" guy?

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  20. #75
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: A novel concept...

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    It doesn't have to be so drastic. There are some games where your starter is gassed, the inning is getting out of hand, you have someone warming, and you take the starter out. Who should that reliever be? Your best or your "front-end" guy?
    But what do you gain? Great, you got me out of that mess, now what? "Winning the battle but losing the war" odds greatly increase if that is a common occurrence. That might be a "must game" mentality, but we are talking about day to day usage patterns here.
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