Joel Luckhaupt tweeted something about this earlier in the week or some time last week. . . well, at some point he mentioned Bronson's pitch counts for the year. So I found out info for pitch counts by year as a Cincinnati Red.
2006: 109.9
2007: 100.8
2008: 101
2009: 103.2
2010: 98.7
2011: 103.2
2012: 92.4
2013: 90.9
Arroyo is 36 this year. I'm not sure anyone is surprised by this decline, but it's worth noting that he's gone above 100 pitches only once this year.
This is exactly why I was fine with him being pulled after the 8th tonight. There was no reason to send him back in knowing that he crumbles as soon as he nears 90 pitches.
What's that look like from an IP/GS basis? Maybe he's just being more efficient and he ends up getting pulled because guys pick up on him after a few turns through the lineup regardless of pitch count.Originally Posted by Todd Gack
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
This. When Bronson is having a good game, he consistently gets weak contact early in counts, its not odd to look up and see a pitch count in the 50's in the 6th innings.
Well assuming I am not suffering from a case of conservation bias.
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
He had mono in 2011, hence more pitches because he was bad that year. He hasn't thrown as many pitches in 2012 & 2013 because: (a) he's been good and (b) the bullpen is great, why not use them? Other than 2006, his innings have pretty much been the same (199-220IP each year) and he's on pace for about 220IP in 2013.
The real questions is -- who won the Arroyo trade?
Opponents are also hitting .333 after Arroyo reaches 75 pitches. (They're actually hitting .340 between 46-60)He had mono in 2011, hence more pitches because he was bad that year. He hasn't thrown as many pitches in 2012 & 2013 because: (a) he's been good and (b) the bullpen is great, why not use them? Other than 2006, his innings have pretty much been the same (199-220IP each year) and he's on pace for about 220IP in 2013.
The real questions is -- who won the Arroyo trade?
I think the fear of him giving up a home run vs others comes into play here.
This is an error. Dusty ruins starters.
Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand
dubc47834 (06-04-2013)
Numbers from Chicago-2003 and Cincinnati-2012 pitching staffs. Dusty may or may not have ruined any arms. I am staying out of that one. However, he certainly has become more conservative in his handling of starting pitchers. In 2003, Dusty let his starters stay out there for 120 or more pitches 29 times. In 2012, that number was 2. 2003 Cubs' starters threw more pitches than Reds' starters in 7 less games. Given the health of the Reds' starters for the last two years, I am not complaining.
Code:CHI-03 Starts Pitches Pit/St 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139 >140 Pct>100 Zambrno 32 3414 106.7 10 7 6 0 0 71.9% Prior 30 3401 113.4 7 10 6 3 0 86.7% Wood 32 3546 110.8 5 7 11 1 1 78.1% Clement 32 3145 98.3 9 6 1 0 0 50.0% Estes 28 2598 92.8 7 8 0 0 0 53.6% Totals 154 16104 104.6 38 38 24 4 1 68.2% CIN-12 Starts Pitches Pit/St 100-109 110-119 120-129 130-139 >140 Pct>100 Arroyo 32 2958 92.4 7 3 0 0 0 31.3% Bailey 33 3334 101.0 11 10 0 0 0 63.6% Cueto 33 3449 104.5 9 10 2 0 0 63.6% Latos 33 3271 99.1 12 6 0 0 0 54.5% Leake 30 2714 90.5 4 4 0 0 0 26.7% Totals 161 15726 97.7 43 33 2 0 0 48.4%
I would imagine those numbers are pretty similar to all of MLB. Big shift in way pitchers are handled in last decade.
Especially true when you factor the Reds 2012 Bullpen vs the rotating cast of gas cans the Cubs had in 2003.
Despite rarely going over 100 pitches a game...
I also saw on MLB Tonight that, since 2006, Arroyo leads the NL in wins with 97, Beating out the likes of Cain, Wainwright and Hamels. So while he could never be called the most dominant starter in the NL over the last 7 years, an argument could definitely be made that he's definitely the most consistent.Weathered Fan @WeatheredFan 18m
Bronson Arroyo is currently the #Reds leader in WHIP (1.10), Wins (6), IP (80.0) & FH (feathered hair). Overall, a very solid season so far.
The Reds have a really tough choice to make at the end of this season with Arroyo. Whether the Reds decide to keep him around, or let him walk...I trust Jocketty. But man, Arroyo has been absolutely awesome since he's been in the Queen City. A guy who can pitch 200+ innings, never miss a start and get you a win the majority of the time are hard to come by. And it's not like his skill set is the kind that suddenly falls off a cliff at age 37 either. And you have to wonder if he's played a part in the development of our young pitching staff.
If he does move on to another team, every time he comes back to GABP he should get a 10 minute long standing ovation.
Last edited by joshua; 06-04-2013 at 12:11 PM.
I've gone on record and admitted to mistakes/past errors in judgement on this board before, so I'm going to pat myself on the back and say I was one of the probably 1/3 of forum members who vehemently defended Arroyo following his 2011 season.
It'd be funny to collect some quotes from Oct '11 - Mar '12 and compare them to what's being said now.
Edited to add: I'm not accusing you of anything, Joshua
(Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
-RichRed
And that is the whole point. Back in 2003, if someone criticized manager x for how long he let starting pitchers go, someone else would invariably trot out the tired manager-x-has-forgotten-more-baseball-than-you-ever-knew line. But maybe what they know is wrong. Maybe we are seeing there are better, more efficient ways to play the game. Maybe, as the game conditions change, strategies have to change accordingly. What worked 40 years ago may not work now. If there is, indeed, a big shift in the way pitchers are handled in 2013, leads me to believe what they 'knew' just might have been wrong.
Actually the numbers are not similar. Here's a list of all the teams and how many times they left they're starter in after 120 pitches in 2003:
Dbacks-6
Braves-7
O's-15
Red Sox-5
Cubs-29
White Sox-5
Reds-2
Indians-4
Rockies-0
Tigers-2
Astros-2
Royals-1
Angels-1
Dodgers-9
Marlins-8
Brewers-5
Twins-2
Mets-9
Yankees-18
A's-5
Phillies-5
Pirates-4
Padres-6
Giants-9
Mariners-7
Cardinals-13
Rays-9
Rangers-7
Blue Jays-5
Expos-26
Only the Expos came even close to Baker's Cubs in 2003.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver
dfs (06-04-2013)
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