In another thread, I said I'd offer him 3/30. I hadn't thought of going with a qualifying offer, which now sounds like a good idea, but if he took the 3/30 in light of a qualifying offer, I'd still give it to him.
Bailey is going to be a FA in 2015 as is Cueto. Latos is a FA in 2016 (Leake also). I can see the Reds keeping one of Bailey and Cueto and the money its going to take will preclude taking the other. I think Bailey's going to get offers the REDS won't match. I could see them dealing him to get some value at some point also and to bring Cingrani in earlier.
I don't know if Arroyo can keep his performance up, but he seems to have the body and arm type that ages well. I think its a reasonable calculated risk and it fills a spot in the rotation with a vet-type guys. Other spots will have to be filled by farm products.
Your 2016 rotation:
Arroyo (in last year of 3/30 contract)
Cingrani (last cheap year)