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Thread: Phil Ervin

  1. #61
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by mattfeet View Post
    Doug - as a prospect, how would you compare/contrast Ervin to Hamilton? Call me crazy, but from what Im reading it seems that Ervin has better overall MLB potential while lacking *only* BH's speed. Thoughts?

    -Matt
    I disagree.

    Most scouts seem to envision Ervin as a tweener. The consensus is that he's either a mediocre defensive CF with a good bat, or a good defensive corner OF with a mediocre bat. Billy is viewed as a potential game-changer, with the physical tools to be special with the glove in CF and to be the kind of weapon at the leadoff spot not seen since the 1980s.

    Billy clearly is the bigger 'boom or bust' guy IMO. If he hits his ceiling, he could completely change the landscape of the game, but if he hits his floor, he'll never be more than a speedy bench OF. Ervin has a much smaller space between his ceiling and his floor, and his floor is likely to be a lot more useful than Hamilton's.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by mattfeet View Post
    Doug - as a prospect, how would you compare/contrast Ervin to Hamilton? Call me crazy, but from what Im reading it seems that Ervin has better overall MLB potential while lacking *only* BH's speed. Thoughts?

    -Matt
    It's probably an issue of semantics but I don't think it's fair to take Hamilton's best tool out of the equation and then try to make a comparison. Even if Hamilton's bat never develops to be more than fringe-average his speed pretty much guarantees that he is going to be a worth a couple wins based on base running and defense alone.

    From what I've read Ervin seems like a nice, solid pick given where the Reds picked in the draft. That being said I don't think he has the same kind of ceiling as Hamilton and the lack of any standout carrying tool makes it hard for me to argue that he even has a higher floor.

  4. #63
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Hey Doug, from what I have read so far it seems like scouts are divided on Ervin. The ESPN guys (law,churchill, etc) seem to think he's a 4th OF at best, everyone else (including Jim Callis) think he has potential to be an all star CF is there any reason for there being such the big divide about his potential?

  5. #64
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by dunner13 View Post
    Hey Doug, from what I have read so far it seems like scouts are divided on Ervin. The ESPN guys (law,churchill, etc) seem to think he's a 4th OF at best, everyone else (including Jim Callis) think he has potential to be an all star CF is there any reason for there being such the big divide about his potential?
    It all boils down to his position. The naysayers don't think he has enough glove to stick in CF, and not enough bat to play a corner. The guys who like him think he can stick in CF, where his bat definitely profiles as above-average.

  6. #65
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by dunner13 View Post
    Hey Doug, from what I have read so far it seems like scouts are divided on Ervin. The ESPN guys (law,churchill, etc) seem to think he's a 4th OF at best, everyone else (including Jim Callis) think he has potential to be an all star CF is there any reason for there being such the big divide about his potential?
    The big divide is mostly because he played with an injured ankle this year. He wasn't as fast because of it and some wondered if he could play center. That is where most of the divide comes from. Some bought into the idea that he is just an average runner based on him playing with a sprained ankle this spring. Before he hurt his ankle, he was a plus runner.

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    dunner13 (06-10-2013)

  8. #66
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The big divide is mostly because he played with an injured ankle this year. He wasn't as fast because of it and some wondered if he could play center. That is where most of the divide comes from. Some bought into the idea that he is just an average runner based on him playing with a sprained ankle this spring. Before he hurt his ankle, he was a plus runner.
    Great thanks, that makes sense.

  9. #67
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    First Reds pick in years to sign that quickly and not keep us up until midnight some hot night in August.

    I'm not sure if that's good or bad?

  10. #68
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    First Reds pick in years to sign that quickly and not keep us up until midnight some hot night in August.

    I'm not sure if that's good or bad?
    IIRC Travieso signed pretty quickly last year?

    I believe the last one to sign quickly before that was Mesoraco.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Always Red (06-12-2013)

  12. #69
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    They gave him the max contract. Nothing to negotiate. Love this new CBA.

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    REDREAD (06-11-2013)

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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Dayton right? With a half season to go, that's plenty of time to get some real development in. Don't really care to see him dominate the Pioneer League.

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    Benihana (06-11-2013)

  16. #71
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    They gave him the max contract. Nothing to negotiate. Love this new CBA.
    That isn't how it works. They could have given him $6M if they wanted to as long as they still found a way to sign the rest of their Top 10 round guys and stay under budget.

  17. #72
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    That isn't how it works. They could have given him $6M if they wanted to as long as they still found a way to sign the rest of their Top 10 round guys and stay under budget.
    That's true. But the reality of the situation is that the new slotted system has been wonderful (at least for the clubs/fans, maybe the draftees don't like it).

    The old way involved a lot of "negotiating" and kids signing at the 11th hour.

    Now that rounds 1-10 are slotted, most kids seem to accept slot money. I really doubt we'll ever see another contract for a draft pick like Texeria got ever again.

    The new draft system is going to be wonderful for competitive balance, IMO.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Benihana (06-11-2013)

  19. #73
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The big divide is mostly because he played with an injured ankle this year. He wasn't as fast because of it and some wondered if he could play center. That is where most of the divide comes from. Some bought into the idea that he is just an average runner based on him playing with a sprained ankle this spring. Before he hurt his ankle, he was a plus runner.
    Is it fair to assume he's going to return to his prior speed? At least in other sports, ankle injuries often mean the beginning of the end from a speed/quickness standpoint. Obviously he's young, but would it be fair to at least downgrade our expectations of the likelihood he reaches his speed/defensive potential?

    In any event, good that he got himself signed and will be able to get in a summer of pro baseball this year.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  20. #74
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Guy sounds a lot like X. Paul
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  21. #75
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    I still can't believe Ervin lasted until the 27th pick. First Stephenson two years ago and now Ervin.

    I think it helps that Mr. Red wears the No. 27 and the MVP of the 1990 World Series donned the No. 27.

    Ervin being the MVP of the Cape Cod league last year -- coupled with his good junior season at Samford despite playing injured -- should have made him at least a top-20 pick IMO. We were very fortunate. Great job by Buckley and his staff as usual. I fully expect to see Ervin in Cincinnati by the end of the 2015 season (and will be a fixture with the Reds from the start of 2016 on). Love that he and Winker are in the system as our top-two young outfielders.

    Speaking of Winker, it's a matter of time before Ervin gets promoted to Dayton this year and joins Winker with the Dragons. I give him about another 2 weeks in Billings max. I look for Dayton to promote Arias to Bakersfield and then Ervin will get promoted to Dayton.


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