Phil Ervin

[Steve4192]

In other words you are jaded by the worst stretch in management both owner/gm in franchise history. Where have you been the last five years though? The Reds have churned out a division winning team from their farm system.

It's not being jaded, it's being realistic. Go look at any top prospect list from five years ago or earlier. You will find a ton of flops in the top 100, the top 50, the top 25, the top 10, and even the top 5. That's just the way it works.

[Steve4192]

Honestly, I like Billy's odds of success better than the other prospects, simply because he's closer to the bigs.

Agreed.

I have a hard time getting excited about any prospect until they make it to the upper minors. As bad as the washout rate is for prospects in general, it is MUCH worse for prospects who are still in single-A or lower. New wunderkinds pop up every year in single-A, and for every one of them there are a bunch more who drop off the prospects lists and are never heard from again.

[REDREAD]

Agreed.

I have a hard time getting excited about any prospect until they make it to the upper minors. As bad as the washout rate is for prospects in general, it is MUCH worse for prospects who are still in single-A or lower. New wunderkinds pop up every year in single-A, and for every one of them there are a bunch more who drop off the prospects lists and are never heard from again.

True.. if every prospect lived up to their hype, the average MLB career would only be about 1-2 years It's really hard for a youngster to displace a veteran player, because usually the veteran player is better.

Lots of work to do from being drafted to making the major leagues. Pretty incredible that Leake was able to go to the majors right after college, IMO.

Heck, this is not a bash on Homer, but he was called up to the majors way too early. Despite his good tools, it took time for him to blossom. (I am blaming the Reds for rushing him, in a desperate attempt to get fan interest during the Dark Ages).

You're right, it's usually a long road from being drafted to making the bigs.
Although I agree that this current administration is doing an oustanding job with the draft. I'm extremely pleased with the pick of Ervin. Honestly, based on our draft position, I didn't think we'd get a player this good. No guarantee he'll make it, but a nice pick.

[RedlegJake]

While I certainly trust this management more than earlier regimes I have to agree with Steve and Mike. I get excited and often too optimistic about prospects. When I look realistically I'm happy if 1 in 3 touted guys end up actually proving out. Pitchers, no matter how good are always a bad tweak from being done or delayed a long time and hitters seem to be "found out" by pitching at some point...sometimes until they reach the show (ala Larson). Instead I try to judge by the volume of solid prospectd both those who put up numbers and those who have tools to put it together. The more of em you have the better the chancd a few actually make it. The suckers bet imo is only having a couple 3 guys and betting they all pan out. Its not jaded...as Steve says...its just how it works.

[MikeS21]

I don't see it as being jaded. I see it as remembering that a prospect is still just a prospect.

Don't get me wrong. I love watching the Reds draft and develop talent. To me, that's what makes watching the franchise enjoyable. I'd rather see a home grown talent than a talent bought in via trade or FA. I detest the entire FA system and the desire by far too many folks to "buy" championships. I want to see championships grown.

And I agree recent drafts have been more successful than in those days. But we cannot dismiss the lessons we learned from those drafts simply because we want to write them off as bad drafts.

Now for the purposes of this thread, we are talking about Phil Ervin. It's only been three weeks, but I kind of like what I have seen from him and what I have read about him. But I reiterate, it's only been three weeks. And honestly, I had never heard of Phil Ervin until they called his name on draft day. It is way too premature for any of us to project where or if he is going land in the top 50 or top 100 Prospect lists.

I don't call that being jaded. It's being realistic.

[RedEye]

Honestly, I like Billy's odds of success better than the other prospects, simply because he's closer to the bigs.

Billy tore up high A and AA last year. He was promoted aggressively to AAA and now is in an adjustment period. I have not followed his stats super closely, but I believe he's gotten better as the year has worn on.

Billy might not be ready in 2014 (unfortunately).. I feel really good about him being ready by 2015 though. The nice thing about Billy is that his other skills make OBP less important (in my opinion).. Gold glove defense, basestealing, etc.. His OBP doesn't have to be 360+ to be at least an average CF (again, all in my opinion).
Now I agree that Billy's lack of power is a minus, but still.. I like the odds of Billy being at least an average CF when the entire package is considered. If Billy stays healthy, there's no doubt he will be given at least a 2-3 year chance to grab a starting OF job (maybe not playing everyday, but he will be given chances.. just look at all the chances Heisey got).

If Billy Hamilton only gets the chances Chris Heisey has to establish himself in the OF, I will be very surprised -- and very disappointed.

[Tom Servo]

If Billy Hamilton only gets the chances Chris Heisey has to establish himself in the OF, I will be very surprised -- and very disappointed.

If Dusty is still managing the Reds when Billy comes up, I think he will get every chance to play CF and hit leadoff regularly.

[Tony Cloninger]

If Billy Hamilton only gets the chances Chris Heisey has to establish himself in the OF, I will be very surprised -- and very disappointed.

He will get as many chances as Stubbs if not more. No way he is considered a 4th OF like Heisey has been and looks to be.

[REDREAD]

If Billy Hamilton only gets the chances Chris Heisey has to establish himself in the OF, I will be very surprised -- and very disappointed.

I meant to say.. given how many chances Heisey has had (which I think is a lot, given his pedigree and production).. Top prospect Hamilton is going to get plenty of chances (more than Heisey).

[Blitz Dorsey]

I don't see it as being jaded. I see it as remembering that a prospect is still just a prospect.

Don't get me wrong. I love watching the Reds draft and develop talent. To me, that's what makes watching the franchise enjoyable. I'd rather see a home grown talent than a talent bought in via trade or FA. I detest the entire FA system and the desire by far too many folks to "buy" championships. I want to see championships grown.

And I agree recent drafts have been more successful than in those days. But we cannot dismiss the lessons we learned from those drafts simply because we want to write them off as bad drafts.

Now for the purposes of this thread, we are talking about Phil Ervin. It's only been three weeks, but I kind of like what I have seen from him and what I have read about him. But I reiterate, it's only been three weeks. And honestly, I had never heard of Phil Ervin until they called his name on draft day. It is way too premature for any of us to project where or if he is going land in the top 50 or top 100 Prospect lists.

I don't call that being jaded. It's being realistic.

Yes, what you just posted here is realistic. I completely agree with the points you made.

However, in a previous post where you brought up busts like Gruler, Howington, Espinoza ... that came across as jaded. Everything about the Reds sucked during those days; not just our draft picks (although the poor drafts obviously contributed to the Reds overall suckiness).

Again, times have changed. How could a Reds fans who is paying close attention not have faith in Chris Buckley?

[Steve4192]

Yes, what you just posted here is realistic. I completely agree with the points you made.

However, in a previous post where you brought up busts like Gruler, Howington, Espinoza ... that came across as jaded. Everything about the Reds sucked during those days; not just our draft picks (although the poor drafts obviously contributed to the Reds overall suckiness).

Again, times have changed. How could a Reds fans who is paying close attention not have faith in Chris Buckley?

I have great faith in Buckley ... but even the best scouts and player development guys swing and miss WAY more often than they hit one out of the park.

[dougdirt]

I have great faith in Buckley ... but even the best scouts and player development guys swing and miss WAY more often than they hit one out of the park.

Yeah, but how often have the Reds swung and missed on a first round pick in his tenure? He is perfect at getting them to the Majors, so you can't really say he missed on a single one of them. Beyond the first round, of course you are going to miss. But the Reds haven't really screwed up a first round pick since when? 2003 and even then, the guy made the Majors and was productive for a limited amount of time. I'm sure we could argue they didn't make the "right" pick, but they certainly have avoided making the wrong one too.

[RedTeamGo!]

Yeah, but how often have the Reds swung and missed on a first round pick in his tenure? He is perfect at getting them to the Majors, so you can't really say he missed on a single one of them. Beyond the first round, of course you are going to miss. But the Reds haven't really screwed up a first round pick since when? 2003 and even then, the guy made the Majors and was productive for a limited amount of time. I'm sure we could argue they didn't make the "right" pick, but they certainly have avoided making the wrong one too.

Drew Stubbs comes to mind as the wrong pick. Lincecum, Sczerzer, Kennedy all drafted after him. Hindsight and all that, but I remember manys fans being disappointed the Reds did not draft Lincecum over him. He made it to the majors, but his minor league numbers were not exactly stellar.

[dougdirt]

Drew Stubbs comes to mind as the wrong pick. Lincecum, Sczerzer, Kennedy all drafted after him. Hindsight and all that, but I remember manys fans being disappointed the Reds did not draft Lincecum over him. He made it to the majors, but his minor league numbers were not exactly stellar.

Drew Stubbs wasn't the right pick, but he wasn't the wrong pick. Billy Rowell was the wrong pick. He went in the top 10 that year and hasn't even played in the last two seasons because he was so bad. Kasey Kiker was the wrong pick. Never made the Majors, went 12th overall. From that first round, Drew Stubbs has the 6th best bWAR. Three of the guys were already taken when the Reds picked.

Not the wrong pick at all. Just not the right one. The Reds didn't blow the pick.

[Rojo]

Drew Stubbs wasn't the right pick, but he wasn't the wrong pick.

This is useful distinction. You can still build a ball club without making the right picks. But you're doomed if you make too many wrong ones.

Henry James: Excellence doesn't require perfection.