Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.
The only way I will be massively disappointed with Ervin is if he does not turn into a major league starter- and hopefully an above average one.
We have not seen enough of Ervin yet to really have an idea of what is there. He needs to play a season, go through some ups and downs, show what he can do when the opposing team starts to pitch to his weaknesses, show how hard he is going to work, etc.
I saw a couple things with Ervin that stood out in the short time he was in Dayton. One, unlike many first-year pro hitters, he was not completely overmatched when facing a guy with a good slider. He would lay off the slider that broke out of the zone. He could hit a breaking ball. That is a pretty positive statement for a guy that is fairly raw. It was a good sign that he can become a good hitter. On the other side of the coin, I thought he would be a little faster. He is not a true burner, ala Arias, Bowe, or of course, Hamilton. Maybe a little more speed will come when he gets on a professional conditioning program.
Ervin is not close to as polished as Frazier was at the same stage, but Ervin obviously has more athleticism. It would not be a surprise if it took Ervin at least as long as it took Frazier to get to the show, but that is putting the cart before the horse at this stage of his development.
Ervin was at least a year younger than Frazier was when he was at Dayton. I believe Ervin was 20 last summer when drafted. Frazier was in his 2nd summer of pro ball when he was at Dayton.Ervin is not close to as polished as Frazier was at the same stage, but Ervin obviously has more athleticism. It would not be a surprise if it took Ervin at least as long as it took Frazier to get to the show, but that is putting the cart before the horse at this stage of his development.
My sense is that Ervin is ahead, developmentally, but time will tell. It probably hurt Frazier that he was moved around so much.
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
From what I saw of Ervin, and I will admit up front it wasn't a ton since he was injured, he needs to tighten up his "swing zone" a little bit, but I think for the most part he gets the strikezone better than most players in the system. He has a short swing as well, which helps quite a bit. Unlike Frazier, who was more aggressive, which ultimately led to problems with good breaking stuff. Frazier also had a longer swing. While we know that anything could happen, it would be surprising to me if it took Ervin 4 more years to get to Cincinnati.
Edit: Yep, ankle injury
Doug at post 65 in this thread reported:
The big divide is mostly because he played with an injured ankle this year. He wasn't as fast because of it and some wondered if he could play center. That is where most of the divide comes from. Some bought into the idea that he is just an average runner based on him playing with a sprained ankle this spring. Before he hurt his ankle, he was a plus runner.
Last edited by klw; 10-04-2013 at 05:59 PM.
Pretty disappointing start so far for Ervin. The k rate has been rather shocking. Anyone know if it is mostly due to not recognizing breaking balls or just a lot of swing and miss in his game? Only 69 at bats but .273 obp .261 slg right now with 21 strikeouts in 69 at bats. Last year only had 34 k in 172 at bats.
Last edited by RadfordVA; 04-25-2014 at 10:19 AM.
Just not hitting yet. Yes, chasing some sliders out of the zone for strike three, but also not hitting the fastball over the plate earlier in the at-bat that would have kept him out of the two-strike count to begin with. It is early. I cautioned everyone with this player to wait and see what he does. He may turn out to be a great player but he has a ways to go.
This is why I had Winker higher. Winker, as a 19 year old with a half season of pro experience, stepped into a full season league and was a star from day one, plugged into the 3-spot in the order right out of the gate. Never looked overmatched for a minute. Ervin might still turn out to be the better player, but as a 22 year old, he is way, way behind where Winker was as a 19 year old.
Yeah, I'm shocked at how anemic his numbers are so far this year. It's very early, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't very disappointed. He should be tearing up Dayton. A college player that was a first-round pick is struggling at low-A ball a year after the draft? Not good.
My guess would be the wrist is still lingering on him. Wrist/hand injuries can mess with hitters for a long while, even after they are healed, the changes they make to alter their swings to accommodate the pain.
He was too good, too patient for me to believe he just didn't have the ability to hit Low-A pitching.
The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle
I have not paid too much attention to Ervin since he got off to such a terrible start, but a couple of interesting things:
Since June 1: .367 .406/.567./.973
Also the guy in on pace for 40+ steals 17SB 1CS
Ervin is a perfect illustration of the fickleness of baseball fans.
When he was tearing it up in 2013, he was the greatest thing since sliced bread, but when he stumbled out of the gate in 2014, his bandwagon emptied out in a hurry. Player development is a marathon, not a sprint. A prospect is always going to have highs and lows. Fans need to learn to temper their enthusiasm during the highs and do the same for their disappointment during the lows.
I think it's really important for his development to learn to handle the struggles, and perhaps how to perform at less than 100%, and come out the other side stronger, and a better player for it.
Hopefully he continues to turn his season around, and will be able to look back at how much he learned and grew this season.
Old school 1983 (06-12-2014)
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