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Thread: Phil Ervin

  1. #31
    Member Pacman Fever's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Phillip Ervin may not be a center fielder in the big leagues, as his speed is just average and could limit his range. But he has good arm strength and could move to right field. His calling card is what he does with the lumber, showcasing a very good swing with surprising pop for a 5'11" player.

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  3. #32
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    I'm awfully excited to see Ervin and Winker rise thru the ranks in the next few years.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Blitz Dorsey (06-07-2013)

  5. #33
    Member 11larkin11's Avatar
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    IIRC, mlb.com had his speed as a current 8, so I'm not sure about "just average" speed.
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  6. #34
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    It would be so fun to watch an OF of Winker - Ervin - Gelalich rise together through the system. Pretty rare to see three first round picks in the same minor league OF.

    Winker and Ervin could surely push each other in a healthy way, competing for an open OF spot next to Bruce and Hamilton/Choo.
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  7. #35
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Pretty damning report from ESPN's Jason Churchill:

    27. Cincinnati Reds: Phil Ervin | OF, Samford




    Ervin is a high probability outfielder who isn't likely to stick in center field. He likely represents an under-slot pick that could allow the club to spend big at No. 38, the second-to-last pick in the first competitive balance round.

    The Reds do need outfielders looking forward, as Shin-Soo Choo is a free agent following the 2013 season, but Ervin is no guarantee to serve as a regular down the line. -- Churchill
    Makes the Reds draft sound horrible considering they never drafted the overslot guy to complement. Not saying I necessarily agree with his analysis of Ervin, but I wouldn't ignore it either. It does reinforce my annoyance at skipping over Denney, Wilson and Green to take a college reliever though.
    Go BLUE!!!

  8. #36
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    I think Ervin was a fine pick. He was considered a late first round talent anyhow. I don't think it was a reach. I kind of preferred Kaminsky, but oh well.

    The money thing though is interesting. But maybe they'll take some guys in the later rounds that are considered and sign them over slot. Knowing that, it makes you wish the Reds had gone for a ballsier pick in the comp round.

  9. #37
    ZCTRMTP!!!!! texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Ervin was born in the baseball hotbed that is Yukon, Alaska.
    A summer watching a bad Reds' team, is still a pretty good summer.

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    Tom Servo (06-07-2013)

  11. #38
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Pretty damning report from ESPN's Jason Churchill:
    Pretty terrible analysis by Churchill IMO.

    For one, Ervin went about where most scouting services expected him to go. He wasn't an under-slot selection.

    Second, I would agree he is a 'high probability' pick, but he's also a guy with pretty darn solid upside based on the comps that are being made (Puckett, McCutcheon, Spann).

    Third, Churchill is the first guy I have heard describe him as 'not likely' to stick in CF. The worst I have seen is that it is 'questionable' whether he can stick there, and there are plenty of scouts who think there is a reasonable chance he can handle CF duties.

    Lastly, of course he is not a 'guarantee' to serve as a regular down the line. No one in the entire draft is guaranteed to be a success. Number one picks flop on occasion, top ten picks flop pretty regularly, guys drafted after the top ten flop more often than not. Damning a guy picked in the mid 20s because he is not 'guaranteed' to succeed is just silly.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 06-07-2013 at 03:58 PM.

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  13. #39
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    I'm going to put this on the record right now: I think we got one hell of a steal with Ervin. Being the MVP of the Cape Cod League (where they use wooden bats) is absolutely huge. I'll be shocked if Ervin isn't in the Reds' plans by 2015. If not to begin the 2015 season, then certainly by midseason at the latest. I bet he rises through the ranks relatively quick.

    Picking at the end of the first round, I don't think we could have done any better than this. It's also going to be fun to see him and Robert Stephenson (also a No. 27 overall pick) likely make their Reds' debuts around the same time.

    Simply put, I love the Ervin pick. Not crazy about some of our other early picks (although I loved the Armstrong pick in the third round) but Ervin was a great pick IMO.
    Last edited by Blitz Dorsey; 06-09-2013 at 12:51 AM.

  14. #40
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    I'm going to put this on the record right now: I think we got one hell of a steal with Ervin. Being the MVP of the Cape Cod League (where they use wooden bats) is absolutely huge. I'll be shocked if Ervin isn't in the Reds' plans by 2015. If not to begin the 2015 season, then certainly by midseason at the latest. I bet he rises through the ranks relatively quick.

    Picking at the end of the first round, I don't think we could have done any better than this. It's also going to be fun to see him and Robert Stephenson (also a No. 27 overall pick) likely make their Reds' debuts around the same time.

    Simply put, I love the Ervin pick. Not crazy about some of our other early picks (although I loved the Armstrong pick in the third round) but Ervin was a great pick IMO.
    Blitz, I really hope you are right. Let's hope he falls closer to the Andrew McCutchen comp than he does the Dave Sappelt comp. Either way, I hope we start him in Dayton and bump up Winker. Let's challenge our hitters and give Winker or Ervin a chance to be ready for the beginning of the 2015 season when Ludwick's contract is up.

  15. #41
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    I wonder if Jackie Bradley Jr. is a fair comp for Ervin
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-09-2013 at 01:47 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  16. #42
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft...ound-analysis/

    27. CINCINNATI REDS3ds_reds83
    PICK VALUE: $1,812,400

    PHILLIP ERVIN, OF, SAMFORD (@Mr_MagicErvin)
    Area Scout: Ben Jones

    PICK ANALYSIS: Ervin gives the Reds a steal at 27 as a quick-twitch center fielder.

    SCOUTING REPORT: Ervin wasn’t drafted out of high school, in part due to tearing a knee ligament as a football player. He has dealt with a less-serious injury this spring, a sprained left ankle. The problem pushed him to left field for a time and clouded some teams’ evaluations of whether he can stay in center field. For scouts that believe he can, Ervin presents one of the surest bets among college outfielders in the draft class. Ervin lacks the size and physicality of the likes of Stanford’s Austin Wilson or Fresno State’s Aaron Judge, but that’s an asset for him. He’s shorter at 5-foot-10, 205 pounds, has fewer holes in his swing, better hitting ability and above-average raw power thanks to his compact, strong swing. Ervin is a plus runner at his best, but scouts are mixed on his center-field ability. Those who like him see him as a solid-average center fielder early in his career and believe his speed plays better in the field than on the bases. He has enough arm strength to have pitched occasionally for Samford and could slide to right field eventually. Ervin’s blue-collar makeup and quiet confidence further endears him to scouts. Despite improved performance as a junior—he already had a career-high 11 homers and 31 walks—Ervin was thought to be sliding out of the first round, due in part to his ankle injury.

    WHERE HE FITS: After Billy Hamilton, Ervin will rank as the system’s top outfielder, as his overall tools package is greater than Jesse Winker’s corner outfield profile.

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    Mario-Rijo (06-13-2013)

  18. #43
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Here are some interesting Cape single season HR comparisons (this is the least mathematical comp I've ever done):

    2012
    Ervin - 11 HR while batting .323

    2005
    Longoria - 8 (league leader)
    T. Frazier - 5

    2006
    Justin Smoak - 11 (leader)
    Matt Wieters - 8

    2007
    Gordon Beckham - 9 (leader)
    Y. Alonso - 4 (.338 avg was 3rd in league)

    2008
    Chris Dominguez - 10 (leader)
    No other noteworthy

    2009
    Kyle Roller - 10 (leader)
    Jedd Gyorko - 5

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    Blitz Dorsey (06-09-2013)

  20. #44
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by TOBTTReds View Post
    Here are some interesting Cape single season HR comparisons (this is the least mathematical comp I've ever done):

    2012
    Ervin - 11 HR while batting .323

    2005
    Longoria - 8 (league leader)
    T. Frazier - 5

    2006
    Justin Smoak - 11 (leader)
    Matt Wieters - 8

    2007
    Gordon Beckham - 9 (leader)
    Y. Alonso - 4 (.338 avg was 3rd in league)

    2008
    Chris Dominguez - 10 (leader)
    No other noteworthy

    2009
    Kyle Roller - 10 (leader)
    Jedd Gyorko - 5
    So he is going to turn into a bust like Justin Smoak? Great. Just great.

    I am a big fan of Ervin. LOVE LOVE LOVE the swing and athleticism.

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    Blitz Dorsey (06-09-2013)

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    Re: Phil Ervin

    http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/b...08&src=desktop
    Keith Law posted his opinion on the Reds draft. For those that don't have Insider, he thinks Ervin is a 4th outfielder in the big leagues. He feels his short but thick body type will force him to a corner position, where his offense won't play as well. Law also expects Lorenzen to learn a second pitch and move to the Bullpen. He was also intrigued by the selection of Chad Jones. Of course, I trust Buckley over Law. It's interesting to see the different opinions, however.


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