Phil Ervin

[redsof72]

Excellent post Steve4192. Good points.

Ervin...let's start with the positive. Dramatic improvement in center field...now looks like a guy who won't hurt you there, which is a sharp contrast to where he was last year and early this year....has tremendous bat speed, so when he makes solid contact, the ball is going to go somewhere in a hurry...has much better power than the home run numbers imply...can hit a good fastball.

On the other hand...long way to go as a hitter. I asked four scouts last night if they were turning him in on their report as an everyday player and none of the four said they were. He doesn't just chase sliders out of the zone, he struggles with breaking balls in the zone. Any breaking ball on the outer half of the plate is a problem because he takes a huge, dead pull swing. You move him up right now to face pitchers with good command of their breaking ball and he will get absolutely embarrassed. His speed is overrated. I would say he is an average major league runner. His timed speed to first is actually below average because he takes such a big swing that he is slow out of the box. Needs to learn to hit the ball to all fields. Does not have a standout tool. I am not crazy about his makeup, but he does play hard. Seems to be a guy who has never really been pushed and does not react well to criticism.

All that being said, don't give up on him. He could still become a useful player if some things go right.

[RedTeamGo!]

Wow. In one paragraph my hopes in Ervin have been flushed down the toilet.

Thanks for the report, redsof72. Interesting stuff.

[redsof72]

Don't give up on him. Just don't pencil him in yet at GABP. Mesoraco was the worst defensive catcher in the league in Dayton. Players do get better.

[Benihana]

redsof72 - Ervin or Yorman, which do you bet on? Or neither?

Also are you ready to give up on Gabriel Rosa?

[redsof72]

It has been too long since I have seen Yorman to have a valid opinion. The only comment I would have on him is that I think too much has been made out of the fact that he is young for his level. In baseball years, Yorman is more like 23. He has been through several seasons, instructional leagues, and spring trainings, and his body was fully developed at 18.

I don't try to predict the future that much anyway. I will tell you what I see today and sprinkle in some comments from scouts or other qualified observers.

Rosa has some tools but is not there yet in terms of baseball skills. I wouldn't say I would give up on anyone but he has a long way to go just to be competitive in A-ball.

This is off topic but might be of interest to some. I asked the same four scouts last night...and all were veteran, seasoned scouts, which of the five Dayton starting pitchers would be the best big leaguer. That's Travieso, Romano, Garrett, Langfield, and Stephens. As I have said many times, there is nowhere near the consensus in baseball circles as is portrayed in the follow the leader media. Of the four, two said Travieso, one said Garrett, and one said it would be Garrett or Romano. They all thought about it for several seconds before answering. Two also said they liked Langfield a lot, but as a reliever.

[dougdirt]

This is off topic but might be of interest to some. I asked the same four scouts last night...and all were veteran, seasoned scouts, which of the five Dayton starting pitchers would be the best big leaguer. That's Travieso, Romano, Garrett, Langfield, and Stephens. As I have said many times, there is nowhere near the consensus in baseball circles as is portrayed in the follow the leader media. Of the four, two said Travieso, one said Garrett, and one said it would be Garrett or Romano. They all thought about it for several seconds before answering. Two also said they liked Langfield a lot, but as a reliever.

The biggest thing for me that separates Travieso from the others in that rotation, is that he shows fastball command far more often than the others do. The organization preaches fastball command as the most important thing (understandable, almost every pitcher in the world throws his fastball more than half of the time). That just gives him a bigger edge on the others for me. With that said, I can certainly understand any of the three that were named being picked. On a given day, any of them can look very, very good.

[Steve4192]

Don't underestimate the importance of confidence in sports. Doesn't matter the sport, having confidence is paramount.

No need to risk hurting this kid's confidence so early in his career. He's fought through enough adversity this year. Give him the call-up to Bakersfield. Plenty of guys move up a level in the minors when they don't necessarily deserve it. But the point here is this is about building up Ervin's confidence, not hurting it. A call-up to Bakersfield can only help.

If his confidence is so fragile that we have to worry about him cracking due to a bad half-season in low A ball, then he'll never make it in the majors anyway. If he can't handle sink-or-swim situations in the minors, he will most definitely not handle them in the majors.

I'm all for protecting guys confidence when they arrive in the majors by giving them favorable platoon matchups and putting them in low pressure slots in the lineup. But if they can't mentally handle slumps in the minors, they don't have they don't have the right stuff between the ears to succeed in the majors anyway.

[Redeyecat]

Sounds like the Reds are really stockpiling potential quality SP. I'm interested to see some of the organization's revised prospect rankings at the end of the year - or even right now if there are any updated ones.

[dougdirt]

Sounds like the Reds are really stockpiling potential quality SP. I'm interested to see some of the organization's revised prospect rankings at the end of the year - or even right now if there are any updated ones.

I had a midseason update about a month ago on my list: http://redsminorleagues.com/2014/06/...-10-prospects/

[Chuckie]

Wow. In one paragraph my hopes in Ervin have been flushed down the toilet.

Thanks for the report, redsof72. Interesting stuff.

You're even more naive than I thought if you are willing to "flush down" all your hopes in a player based on what some random person on the internet posted. But go on with your bad self.

[RedTeamGo!]

You're even more naive than I thought if you are willing to "flush down" all your hopes in a player based on what some random person on the internet posted. But go on with your bad self.

No, I have just been reading redsof72's reports on prospects for years and he tends to very informed and accurate, unlike you.

[RedlegJake]

You're even more naive than I thought if you are willing to "flush down" all your hopes in a player based on what some random person on the internet posted. But go on with your bad self.

Perhaps you should learn who actually sees these kids play and talks to actual scouts, and has first hand info. Most posters (like myself) are just "some random person" but in Doug and Redsof72 we are very fortunate to have 2 guys who spend a lot of time evaluating these guys and have inside info/looks that most of us don't. I listen very closely to their opinions and have come to trust and respect them.

[RedTeamGo!]

Perhaps you should learn who actually sees these kids play and talks to actual scouts, and has first hand info. Most posters (like myself) are just "some random person" but in Doug and Redsof72 we are very fortunate to have 2 guys who spend a lot of time evaluating these guys and have inside info/looks that most of us don't. I listen very closely to their opinions and have come to trust and respect them.

Exactly.

If anyone other than redsof72 or Doug had posted what redsof72 stated I would have been like "meh" but that was not the case.

[M2]

Ervin's batting profile is starting to remind me of Edwin Encarnacion: sick bat speed, struggles with breaking pitches, pull happy swing.

[RED VAN HOT]

I still think there's a chance he will turn things around and become a top prospect. I wish they would just send him to Bakersfield. That's an automatic slump-buster right there.

I have been to Bakersfield. Believe me, the town is crawling in potential slump busters.