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Thread: Phil Ervin

  1. #91
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    ... and whether Winker and Ervin can do the same.

    Counting on all three of those guys panning out is a sucker's bet. Odds are at least one, possibly two, and maybe even all three will flop. When looking at prospects, the safe money is almost always on failure.
    I feel pretty confident that Ervin and Winker will hit enough to be Major Leaguers. I would say there is a better chance that one of those guys winds up being traded before I would say they flop.

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  4. #92
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I feel pretty confident that Ervin and Winker will hit enough to be Major Leaguers. I would say there is a better chance that one of those guys winds up being traded before I would say they flop.
    I think the Reds OF picture looks pretty good. Lutz, Y-Rod, Arias and Silva might have a chance at decent careers as well.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #93
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    Odds are at least one, possibly two, and maybe even all three will flop.
    Really? What are these "odds" you speak of? Care to wager that one of Winker, Ervin or Hamilton will be solid Major League players? I just need one of them to make it and I win, right? Yep, sign me up for that. Any price.

    And who's the "sucker" again?

  6. #94
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    And who's the "sucker" again?
    I'm a sucker for anything involving Anna Kendrick.

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    Tom Servo (07-04-2013)

  8. #95
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    ... and whether Winker and Ervin can do the same.

    Counting on all three of those guys panning out is a sucker's bet. Odds are at least one, possibly two, and maybe even all three will flop. When looking at prospects, the safe money is aleays on failure.
    Seriously every thread you post in.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    Really? What are these "odds" you speak of? Care to wager that one of Winker, Ervin or Hamilton will be solid Major League players? I just need one of them to make it and I win, right? Yep, sign me up for that. Any price.

    And who's the "sucker" again?
    I said the odds are that one would fail. I mentioned two as a possibility, not a probability, and three as an unlikely outlier.

    I like Winker and Ervin, but I can rattle off dozens of prospects who were thought of just as highly (many MUCH more highly) who never panned out. That is particularly true of highly ranked guys who have no experience above low-A or rookie ball.

    I hope all three pan out, but experience tells me that is HIGHLY unlikely.

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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    Seriously every thread you post in.

    That's not true. I'm plenty positive in the major league forums. I never tear down guys who are in a slump or bust on guys because they don't play a certain way. I was one of the few people to support Mike Leake even when most posters were ready to trade him for a rosin bag. I was also one of those preaching patience when Jay Bruce started off the season in one of his slumps. Hell, I even defended Drew Stubbs more than a few times in the foolish belief that he could recapture his 2009-2010 level of performance.

    But when it comes to the minor leagues, I have a more realistic view of prospects than many Redzoners. The reality is that most prospects fail. That is true for every single team in the majors. If won't bury my head in the sand just to please a few Pollyannas who believe all Reds prospects are under-rated and that they all will be standout major leaguers. They won't. I'm sorry if that offends your delicate sensibilities.

  11. #98
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    That's not true. I'm plenty positive in the major league forums. I never tear down guys who are in a slump or bust on guys because they don't play a certain way. I was one of the few people to support Mike Leake even when most posters were ready to trade him for a rosin bag. I was also one of those preaching patience when Jay Bruce started off the season in one of his slumps. Hell, I even defended Drew Stubbs more than a few times in the foolish belief that he could recapture his 2009-2010 level of performance.

    But when it comes to the minor leagues, I have a more realistic view of prospects than many Redzoners. The reality is that most prospects fail. That is true for every single team in the majors. If won't bury my head in the sand just to please a few Pollyannas who believe all Reds prospects are under-rated and that they all will be standout major leaguers. They won't. I'm sorry if that offends your delicate sensibilities.
    It doesn't offend my delicate sensibilities. I fully understand that all Reds prospects won't be standout major leaguers. This board has a history though of guys writing players off and making sure they defend that position even in the face of players growing and developing, as the minor leaguers are intended to do. The development of Drew Stubbs, Homer Bailey, and Devin Mesoraco was the source of much argument. I just don't like to see lines drawn in the sand and then until the guy reaches the big leagues, people rooting for the guy to fail, to validate their position.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

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    New Fever (07-04-2013)

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    Re: Phil Ervin

    I find it hard to either write off or promote a prospect who has only been a minor leaguer for only three weeks. Can we at least give Ervin three months before we declare him a bust or a future superstar?
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

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    Lockdwn11 (07-06-2013), LoganBuck (07-04-2013), Steve4192 (07-05-2013)

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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    It doesn't offend my delicate sensibilities. I fully understand that all Reds prospects won't be standout major leaguers. This board has a history though of guys writing players off and making sure they defend that position even in the face of players growing and developing, as the minor leaguers are intended to do. The development of Drew Stubbs, Homer Bailey, and Devin Mesoraco was the source of much argument. I just don't like to see lines drawn in the sand and then until the guy reaches the big leagues, people rooting for the guy to fail, to validate their position.
    I agree that it is way too early to write anyone off. That is why I never named names. I haven't staked out a position on any individual player. On a micro level, I like all of them as prospects and think they all have a good shot to become solid major leaguers. Unfortunately, no matter how much I like them individually as prospects, I know that on a macro level it is HIGHLY unlikely all three pan out. The most likely scenario is that one of them flops. The second most likely scenario is that two will flop. The third most likely scenario is a tie between they all flop and none of them flop. That's reality, not pessimism.

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    MikeS21 (07-05-2013)

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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    I agree that it is way too early to write anyone off. That is why I never named names. I haven't staked out a position on any individual player. On a micro level, I like all of them as prospects and think they all have a good shot to become solid major leaguers. Unfortunately, no matter how much I like them individually as prospects, I know that on a macro level it is HIGHLY unlikely all three pan out. The most likely scenario is that one of them flops. The second most likely scenario is that two will flop. The third most likely scenario is a tie between they all flop and none of them flop. That's reality, not pessimism.
    It's a hard lesson to learn, to not get too excited about prospects.

    My first recollection of realization that the FO had no clue what it was doing was back in May of 1997. One Sunday, early in May, the Cincinnati Enquirer laid out an entire spread on the Reds. The Reds were struggling, the farm system depleted - all except for one young guy by the name of Brett Tomko. I remember there was this long article all about Brett Tomko. There were about three member's of the Reds' top brass (Bowden and Allen included) who all were quoted as saying that "We're not going to rush Tomko to the majors. We're going to let him develop. Don't expect him this year." It wasn't two weeks later that sure enough, Tomko was called up before he was ready.

    I also "drank the Kool Aid" given out by Jim Bowden, when he stood up in front of live TV cameras, and with a straight face told us that Rob Bell was the "next John Smoltz." I bought it hook, line, and sinker.

    But the one that sealed my skepticism of prospects was when the Reds acquired Ricardo Aramboles. I thought he was Jose Rijo the Second, and I was convinced with a 1-2 punch of Rob Bell and Ricardo Aramboles, the Reds would run away with the NL Pennant.

    After living through Brandon Larson, Ty Howington, Chris Gruler, and the David Espinosa, Reds fans ought to have their excitement tempered over draft picks. In recent years the Reds "seem" to have made better draft picks. I still think it is too early to judge Nick Travieso as a prospect, and I really think Ervin needs a couple seasons before we see what we've got.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

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    Benihana (07-05-2013)

  19. #102
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    It's a hard lesson to learn, to not get too excited about prospects.

    My first recollection of realization that the FO had no clue what it was doing was back in May of 1997. One Sunday, early in May, the Cincinnati Enquirer laid out an entire spread on the Reds. The Reds were struggling, the farm system depleted - all except for one young guy by the name of Brett Tomko. I remember there was this long article all about Brett Tomko. There were about three member's of the Reds' top brass (Bowden and Allen included) who all were quoted as saying that "We're not going to rush Tomko to the majors. We're going to let him develop. Don't expect him this year." It wasn't two weeks later that sure enough, Tomko was called up before he was ready.

    I also "drank the Kool Aid" given out by Jim Bowden, when he stood up in front of live TV cameras, and with a straight face told us that Rob Bell was the "next John Smoltz." I bought it hook, line, and sinker.

    But the one that sealed my skepticism of prospects was when the Reds acquired Ricardo Aramboles. I thought he was Jose Rijo the Second, and I was convinced with a 1-2 punch of Rob Bell and Ricardo Aramboles, the Reds would run away with the NL Pennant.

    After living through Brandon Larson, Ty Howington, Chris Gruler, and the David Espinosa, Reds fans ought to have their excitement tempered over draft picks. In recent years the Reds "seem" to have made better draft picks. I still think it is too early to judge Nick Travieso as a prospect, and I really think Ervin needs a couple seasons before we see what we've got.
    In other words you are jaded by the worst stretch in management both owner/gm in franchise history. Where have you been the last five years though? The Reds have churned out a division winning team from their farm system.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

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    Blitz Dorsey (07-05-2013), marcshoe (07-05-2013)

  21. #103
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    It's a hard lesson to learn, to not get too excited about prospects.

    My first recollection of realization that the FO had no clue what it was doing was back in May of 1997. One Sunday, early in May, the Cincinnati Enquirer laid out an entire spread on the Reds. The Reds were struggling, the farm system depleted - all except for one young guy by the name of Brett Tomko. I remember there was this long article all about Brett Tomko. There were about three member's of the Reds' top brass (Bowden and Allen included) who all were quoted as saying that "We're not going to rush Tomko to the majors. We're going to let him develop. Don't expect him this year." It wasn't two weeks later that sure enough, Tomko was called up before he was ready.

    I also "drank the Kool Aid" given out by Jim Bowden, when he stood up in front of live TV cameras, and with a straight face told us that Rob Bell was the "next John Smoltz." I bought it hook, line, and sinker.

    But the one that sealed my skepticism of prospects was when the Reds acquired Ricardo Aramboles. I thought he was Jose Rijo the Second, and I was convinced with a 1-2 punch of Rob Bell and Ricardo Aramboles, the Reds would run away with the NL Pennant.

    After living through Brandon Larson, Ty Howington, Chris Gruler, and the David Espinosa, Reds fans ought to have their excitement tempered over draft picks. In recent years the Reds "seem" to have made better draft picks. I still think it is too early to judge Nick Travieso as a prospect, and I really think Ervin needs a couple seasons before we see what we've got.
    It's basically the same story for me. One of the things I do each offseason while waiting for the new 'top prospect' lists to come out is to go back and review my old copies of Baseball Prospectus from the last 8-12 years to get a sober reminder of how few of those prospects will amount to anything.

    For instance, looking at the 2004 prospectus, the top three position player prospects in all of baseball were Joe Mauer, Jeremy Reed, and Andy Marte. Obviously, Mauer met and exceeded all reasonable expectations. Reed and Marte OTOH were massive flops, and those guys weren't just run-of-the-mill prospects, they were two of the top three prospects IN ALL OF BASEBALL. Even elite prospects flop at a pretty high rate, and of the Reds prospects we were discussing, only Hamilton is considered elite at this stage of his development (and that is debatable given his performance thus far in AAA).

  22. #104
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    After living through Brandon Larson, Ty Howington, Chris Gruler, and the David Espinosa, Reds fans ought to have their excitement tempered over draft picks. In recent years the Reds "seem" to have made better draft picks. I still think it is too early to judge Nick Travieso as a prospect, and I really think Ervin needs a couple seasons before we see what we've got.
    Let me ask you a question: How have recent first and second round picks worked out for the Reds? I'm specifically referring to players with names such as Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Todd Frazier, Mike Leake, Yonder Alonso (big piece in landing Latos), Yasmani Grandal (ditto) and Devin Mesoraco. No question I'm leaving a few out since I'm doing this off the top of my head.

    Don't be jaded by the "lost decade." Focus on the fact that we have people running the organization now that know what the hell they are doing. I didn't include Billy Hamilton above, because he hasn't made the Majors yet. Safe to say that was a damn good pick and he will be a MLB player for several years. Not sure exactly how good he'll be yet, but he'll play in the Show for over a decade most likely. Robert Stephenson is looking like one hell of a good first-round pick. Times have changed for our team. They've changed fast and they've changed for the better.

  23. #105
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Probably depends on whether Billy Hamilton learns to manage AAA/major league hitting.
    Honestly, I like Billy's odds of success better than the other prospects, simply because he's closer to the bigs.

    Billy tore up high A and AA last year. He was promoted aggressively to AAA and now is in an adjustment period. I have not followed his stats super closely, but I believe he's gotten better as the year has worn on.

    Billy might not be ready in 2014 (unfortunately).. I feel really good about him being ready by 2015 though. The nice thing about Billy is that his other skills make OBP less important (in my opinion).. Gold glove defense, basestealing, etc.. His OBP doesn't have to be 360+ to be at least an average CF (again, all in my opinion).
    Now I agree that Billy's lack of power is a minus, but still.. I like the odds of Billy being at least an average CF when the entire package is considered. If Billy stays healthy, there's no doubt he will be given at least a 2-3 year chance to grab a starting OF job (maybe not playing everyday, but he will be given chances.. just look at all the chances Heisey got).
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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