Which current SP do you look to re-sign first?

[Mitri]

Latos. What M2 said. Give him what he wants.

If I'm Walt I might look to buy out a few of Mike Leakes FA years at a discount as soon as possible.

I think we'll see the Reds let Homer and Cueto's contracts play out and see what happens.

[oneupper]

According to Baseball Reference, FA is

Arroyo 2014
Cueto 2015
Bailey 2015
Latos 2016
Leake 2016

Cueto is signed through his arb years (team option 2015 @ 10 mm). Leake and Bailey are still up for arbitration next year and Latos in 2015.

Each one of these negotiations is going to be tough and you probably have to trade one or two off before FA to make the money aspect viable.

Cost 2013

Arroyo: 11.50
Latos: 4.25
Cueto: 7.40
Leake: 3.06
Bailey: 5.35

Total: 31.56

As a FA, Cueto is going to cost 15+/year, Latos probably also and Bailey at least 10. Leake who knows, but its going to more than now.

The REDS can spend more on SP, but I doubt they can pay $70/yr for their rotation.

Personally, I'd try to get Arroyo signed for 3/30, give the big contract to Cueto or Latos, and trade the other, while trying to get Bailey on a short contract allowing him to "maximize his value" for later Free Agency. Leake, if affordable. Cingani or someone will have to take the last spot. I can't see them spending more than 50 yr on SP, so there have to be one or two cheap starters in there.

[Tom Servo]

Need to trade Homer for all we can. I'd even do it this year. He doesn't like being in Cincy, so lets ship him the heck out of here for someone who does. I'd rather keep BA, and let Cingrani take Homers place.

I'm just tired of his act. How many years have we been waiting for him to come to full fruition? It just isn't going to happen here. So let's get what we can, which should be plenty.

How about Homer to LA for Eithier?

I am on board with potentially trading Homer for a bat, but Ethier would be a terrible target.

[mdccclxix]

I'd keep Latos, Bailey, Leake as your core past 2015, Cueto's last contract year. Hopefully Cueto gets past these road blocks and he can be an option as well. Arroyo, I'd do a 1 year deal with at the 13 million range to see if you can get a comp pick and bridge to Cingrani one more year if he accepts. If it's Latos or Bailey this offseason, I go Latos. It really depends on how this season goes, though. There is a larger goal that could come to fruition this year. If that happens, it colors everything differently IMO and Bailey and Latos could be signed.

Maybe the pitcher to extend now is Leake, though. A team friendly deal to nail down the 3,4,5 role for 4-5 years would help settle the rotation a lot. Then enter Cingrani and eventually the even younger guys like Cisco and Stephenson.

[webbbj]

Need to trade Homer for all we can. I'd even do it this year. He doesn't like being in Cincy, so lets ship him the heck out of here for someone who does. I'd rather keep BA, and let Cingrani take Homers place.

I'm just tired of his act. How many years have we been waiting for him to come to full fruition? It just isn't going to happen here. So let's get what we can, which should be plenty.

How about Homer to LA for Eithier?

What are you talking about? Not like pitching in GABP idoesnt have naything to do with the city.

Bailey finally has realized his prime. Is it CY young material, No but its pretty damn good and hes on the right path to have good, solid career.

[RedEye]

I try for Latos, Bailey and then Cueto in that order. I think Leake is fine, but also more replaceable.

[jojo]

Out of the 4 younger starting pitchers we have, (Im not including Arroyo in this, but I do hope we can bring him back on a Ludwick type deal), which would you like to see the Reds' re-sign as a priority? Here's my thoughts, in order:

1.) Latos: He's young, he's passionate, he's aggressive, and he really seems to enjoy the Reds organization. While he's not a FA until 2016, he would be my #1 priority, hands down, to sign long-term. I think the Reds make a strong push to sign him after 2014.

2.) Cueto: The current string of injuries worries me about long-term durability. It's yet to be seen if he needs to revert to prior mechanics for the sake of his health. If he can stay healthy after this DL stint, I'd be much more inclined to put him #1. The remainder of 2013 will be quite telling on his this could pan out.

3.) Leake: Yes, I'm putting him above Bailey. Bailey clearly has higher upside, but if Leake can maintain pitching the way he's currently pitching, then I would have no qualms inking him to a 4-6 year deal. However, teams also need good serviceable pitchers. Leake, for all intents and purposes, is pitching like a #2/#3 pitcher on a playoff team. Not that long ago he would've been the Reds' Ace.

4.) Bailey: While it'd be nice to ink Cueto, Latos, and Bailey to long term deals, I just do not see Bailey giving the Reds a hometown discount on an extension. As aforementioned, I do think that Bailey has higher upside than Leake, but we've all been given the impression that he's not particularly fond of GABP.

What are your thoughts?

Latos is the best one. Keep Bailey and Cueto with fingers crossed that Cueto can stay healthy. Let Arroyo walk and trade Leake to some GM that overvalues him.

[oregonred]

The most critical item for the franchise in the next decade is to get this right. Waiting on this is already going to cost the franchise a bundle and likely will shorten the current window of opportunity by a year or two. I have been frustrated that at least one of the young three (Latos, Bailey and Leake) hadn't been locked up for at least 1-2 of their FA years in a previous extension prior to now. The preemptive Cueto extension is a large reason for the current window being open through 2015.

I've always thought Leake was going to end up being a solid MLB pitcher that would be completely durable with plus fielding and batting as a bonus. He's our Arroyo with better stuff and potential for the next 8-10 years - and I want him in the rotation the rest of the decade as a dependable #3 type starter at a fair market value.

Best case given the large amount of payroll committed to Votto and BP over the next 5+ years would be to sign two of the four long term. My priority would be Latos, Bailey, Leake and Cueto in that order. Cueto would be tough to go long term on a follow-on contract as he is clearly the least durable of the bunch. I suspect Bailey will be the most difficult to sign and I'd look to deal him in the offseason depending on how 2013 plays out for the club.

Latos is a horse and the Reds will need to back up the truck. Hopefully Leake can be had for reasonable value before the 2015 season starts. Still annoyed the Reds mismanaged Leake in rushing him back from Louisville a couple years ago after the t-shirt fiasco and his struggles on the mound. This allowed his FA clock to start a year earlier and may prove to be a big mistake.

Too bad for the Reds that Bailey who was rushed and mismanaged at times during the end of the lost decade while he learned how to pitch, turned the corner just as he started to get expensive and his control window runs dry. Better late than never, but a bummer it came in the back 2.5 years of the 6 year club control. Will become paramount to turn this emerging asset into something valuable to extend the window. I am assuming resigning Bailey won’t be realistic or reasonable given the other payroll commitments and that someone with a bigger yard would jump at the chance to pull him in with a 5/70M type contract after 2014.

Here's hoping a huge TV deal saves the day in 2015 so the Reds can keep the window open and keep three of these guys in the rotation into 2016, but being realistic given the currently committed payroll, the best case would be to pony up for Latos (6/120M), hope to get at least one of Leake/Cueto in the fold through 2018-19 and to get the best value possible for Bailey in the offseason or at the deadline next year. If the club makes a run at the Series this year then ride Bailey until the end of 2014 and get the picks.

[Wonderful Monds]

Latos 1, Bailey 1b.

Let Cueto play his out, cross that bridge when you have to with Leake.

[Benihana]

Latos 1, Bailey 1b.

Let Cueto play his out, cross that bridge when you have to with Leake.

Agree with this.

Latos is hands down the most important guy to sign long term. If you can only sign one, he's the guy.

HOWEVER, Bailey is the second most important IMO, and he is actually eligible for Free Agency first.

If I'm the Reds, I approach both of them right now, and see what it will take to extend. If they can lock both of them up, they're set. If Bailey wants to test the waters or asks for the moon, the Reds can start planning for the future without him - whether that means re-signing Choo (wouldn't go more than 3 years with an option) and/or trading Bailey in the offseason for a top-shelf SS or LF. In the latter case, re-sign Arroyo to a 2 year $10-15M deal (if he'll do it), and if he won't - fast track Lorenzen as a reliever and for Pete's sake make Aroldis a starter after this season!

While I'd love to see both Latos and Bailey locked up for the next 5 years, Reds could do worse than having

Latos
Cueto
Leake
Cingrani
Arroyo/Chapman

as their rotation for the next 2 years, with Stephenson ready to step in once Leake hits FA after 2015 (if he's not traded before then).

[RedsBaron]

Latos 1, Bailey 1b.

Let Cueto play his out, cross that bridge when you have to with Leake.

I agree.

[mth123]

Latos 1, Bailey 1b.

Let Cueto play his out, cross that bridge when you have to with Leake.

Probably my idea as well.

[toledodan]

Need to trade Homer for all we can. I'd even do it this year. He doesn't like being in Cincy, so lets ship him the heck out of here for someone who does. I'd rather keep BA, and let Cingrani take Homers place.

I'm just tired of his act. How many years have we been waiting for him to come to full fruition? It just isn't going to happen here. So let's get what we can, which should be plenty.

How about Homer to LA for Eithier?

homer doesn't like baker very much. he didn't like it when dick pole was the pitching coach either. this was back in 2006 but having price here now doesn't hurt resigning bailey. i'm not sure if his relationship with baker is any better now. before anyone asks, homer's aunt was the one who told me that he didn't like either at the time.

[RedEye]

homer doesn't like baker very much. he didn't like it when dick pole was the pitching coach either. this was back in 2006 but having price here now doesn't hurt resigning bailey. i'm not sure if his relationship with baker is any better now. before amyone asks homer's aunt was the one who told me that he didn't like either at the time.

Where do you get this information? The only account I have read of Homer and Dusty having any sort of interactions was the article that spoke about Dusty recommending books to Homer. It actually made their rapport sound affectionate. Not saying you are wrong, just wondering where you are getting your facts.

[Wonderful Monds]

Need to trade Homer for all we can. I'd even do it this year. He doesn't like being in Cincy, so lets ship him the heck out of here for someone who does. I'd rather keep BA, and let Cingrani take Homers place.

I'm just tired of his act. How many years have we been waiting for him to come to full fruition? It just isn't going to happen here. So let's get what we can, which should be plenty.

How about Homer to LA for Eithier?

What is Homer's "act", exactly? He had a break out year last year, and is actually having a better year so far this year (ERA be damned.)