Who will be the names to watch at the two rookie league teams that should begin play later this month? I'm assuming Ervin and Lorenzen both start in Dayton.
BILLINGS
CF Jonathan Reynoso
3B Gabriel Rosa
2B Ty Washington
LHP Amir Garrett
RHP Dan Langfield
RHP Ben Lively
RHP Zack Weiss
AZL REDS
3B Kevin Franklin
SS Cory Thompson
LHP Jacob Constante
RHP Mark Armstrong
RHP Tyler Mahle
RHP Jeremy Kivel
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Why would you assume that when almost no one starts at Dayton?
Advanced college hitters and college relievers in this system usually start higher than that.Originally Posted by JaxRed
For instance, let's take a look at the last two first round college bats: Yaz Grandal and Yonder Alonso. Both players signed very late in the summer (when the deadline used to be much later), but both skipped Dayton entirely and started in A+ (they each spent lesss than 10 games in Rookie League to tune up). Ryan LaMarre started in Dayton. Unfortunately, Jeff Gelalich is (infamously) probably still not ready for Dayton.
The last two college pitchers drafted in the first round, Mike Leake and Brad Boxberger in 2009, Boxberger also started in High-A and Leake skipped the minors entirely.
So while no one knows for sure, I'd hope and expect both to start in Dayton, if not higher (in Lorenzen's case if he is going to remain a closer). I think Reynoso is a pretty good prospect, and he should be in Billings. Ervin should start in Dayton. Platoon Arias and Gelalich in RF if you have to, but make room for our newest first round pick. It would be great to see him play alongside Winker.
Last edited by Benihana; 06-07-2013 at 10:41 PM.
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The difference is, there is no more "signing late".
Right. So why shouldn't Ervin or Lorenzen start in Dayton?
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Because when guys have signed quickly, they usually went to Billings.
Like Ryan LaMarre or Brad Boxberger?
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LaMarre filled a huge need at the time for Dayton. They don't exactly need an outfielder right now. Brad Boxberger was drafted in 2009 and didn't play until 2010, so I don't know where he comes into play at with this conversation.
I think they'll both be in Billings. Although I could see both getting time in Dayton late in the summer.I'm assuming Ervin and Lorenzen both start in Dayton.
Take a look at their recent stats. Both guys have been playing well, and both are prospects the organization has invested good money in. You don't short circuit their development.Platoon Arias and Gelalich in RF if you have to
Gelalich is a 22 year old RF in Single A with a .353 SLG and 0 HR, and that's a year after OPSing .714 as a 21 year old in Billings. That is fine if you're Billy Hamilton or play a premium position with plus-plus D but Gelalich does not. I'm not giving up on him by any means but he should hardly stand in the way of our newly minted first round pick.
Similarly, Arias is a 21 year old who is repeating Dayton, and has a career .699 OPS through five seasons in the minors. Again, not a guy to give up on by any means but not someone who should be blocking a newly minted first round pick.
I know they've both been playing the best ball of their pro careers over the last month or two, but that's hardly saying much. I'm not calling for their release, or even their benching, but if it helps Ervin's progress, I am fine with the RH Arias and the LH Gelalich platooning in RF for now.
At this point, I think most would agree that Jonathan Reynoso is a better prospect than both Arias and Gelalich. Reynoso is 20 and played last year in the AZL. Would you rather bench or move him (in Billings) for Ervin, as opposed to Arias/Gelalich?
For Lorenzen, IMO it all depends whether they want to try him as a starter or a reliever. If he's getting converted to a SP, I'm fine with him starting in Billings. If he is going to be a reliever, he should be fast-tracked and play in Dayton or even Bakersfield. As a local guy, he shouldn't have a problem adjusting to the latter.
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There's room for them all to get regular ABs, especially with the DH in play. Reynoso and Ervin can trade off in CF, each playing on the corners at times. There's also the possibility you'll see midseason promotions change up the OF mix in Dayton and Bakersfield, leaving the possibility of Reynoso or Ervin playing regularly in Dayton. I don't think you'll see Arias or Gelalich relegated to the role of a part-timer, no matter how it shakes out.I know they've both been playing the best ball of their pro careers over the last month or two, but that's hardly saying much. I'm not calling for their release, or even their benching, but if it helps Ervin's progress, I am fine with the RH Arias and the LH Gelalich platooning in RF for now.
At this point, I think most would agree that Jonathan Reynoso is a better prospect than both Arias and Gelalich. Reynoso is 20 and played last year in the AZL. Would you rather bench or move him (in Billings) for Ervin, as opposed to Arias/Gelalich?
As I understand it, Lorenzen will be playing some offense. That puts him in Billings, IMO. Possible OF of Reynoso, Ervin and Lorenzen??? That would be something.For Lorenzen, IMO it all depends whether they want to try him as a starter or a reliever. If he's getting converted to a SP, I'm fine with him starting in Billings. If he is going to be a reliever, he should be fast-tracked and play in Dayton or even Bakersfield. As a local guy, he shouldn't have a problem adjusting to the latter.
Last edited by lollipopcurve; 06-08-2013 at 12:10 PM.
That's fair, while one (of Gelalich/Arias) is playing RF the other can DH. I'd like to see the top prospects maximize their playing time in the right positions first. IMO, the top prospects are Ervin, Reynoso, Gelalich, and Arias - in that order.
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I bet Ervin starts at Dayton. They'll probably promote Junior Arias to Bakersfield, opening up a spot for Ervin at Dayton.
I'll be disappointed if a first-round pick from the college ranks isn't ready for low-A ball and has to go to rookie ball.
My take.
Promote Winker. Start Ervin in Dayton. Start Lorenzen in AA and see if he can help the Reds pen down the stretch.
Arias, Gelalich and Ervin should be the Dayton OF. Winker seems ready for more IMO.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
If they can sign him, I'd add OF Willie Abreu to the AZL Reds list of an important guy to watch. I'm guessing Langfield also starts in Dayton or Bakersfield once healthy.
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