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Thread: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

  1. #76
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Fair enough. In your previous post you just listed only his 2012 and 2013 OPS+, which totally neglects that he had been a decent, league-average offensive player in 2010 and 2011. Combine that with his defense in CF, and you've got probably the best two-way in-house replacement for Choo that the team has right now.

    Of course, Heisey is injured. Which I find frustrating to no end.
    I've had this debate before and I won't repeat it in detail, but I give Heisey very little credit today for 2010 and 2011. Those numbers are stale. He is not a player with a long history of success.

    In recent times, the NL has simply caught up to him. He swings at virtually anything and they pitch him that way.

    He hustles, plays very good LF and presumably RF, and adequately in CF. But his hitting is not reflected by averaging in the old years with the recent years. The old years are long gone and in 2012-13 he hasn't hit much at all.

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  4. #77
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I've had this debate before and I won't repeat it in detail, but I give Heisey very little credit today for 2010 and 2011. Those numbers are stale. He is not a player with a long history of success.

    In recent times, the NL has simply caught up to him. He swings at virtually anything and they pitch him that way.

    He hustles, plays very good LF and presumably RF, and adequately in CF. But his hitting is not reflected by averaging in the old years with the recent years. The old years are long gone and in 2012-13 he hasn't hit much at all.
    Heres how I see it. Heisey is a great pinch hitter. But whenever he was given a whole game he failed to impress. Id be curious to know what his stats where for pinch hits and then for games he started

  5. #78
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I've had this debate before and I won't repeat it in detail, but I give Heisey very little credit today for 2010 and 2011. Those numbers are stale. He is not a player with a long history of success.
    Heisey does have flaws in his game, but the three previous years of performance are usually considered a standard sample for projecting the future, are they not? OPS+ is not just a "what have you done for me lately lately" kind of stat -- it is meant to be looked at over (slightly) larger spans of time. If Heisey's 2010 and 2011 don't count in his favor, then there is almost no reason at all to consider X-Man's recent stats in his favor either -- yet people routinely consider him to be the best hitter of the group? And don't even start with D-Rob...
    Last edited by RedEye; 06-11-2013 at 03:20 PM.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  6. #79
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Heisey does have flaws in his game, but the three previous years of performance are usually considered a standard sample for projecting the future, are they not? OPS+ is not just a "what have you done for me lately lately" kind of stat -- it is meant to be looked at over (slightly) larger spans of time. If Heisey's 2010 and 2012 don't count in his favor, then there is almost no reason at all to consider X-Man's recent stats in his favor either -- yet people routinely consider him to be the best hitter of the group? And don't even start with D-Rob...
    Well, Xavier Paul's good numbers have one rather important advantage -- they are current and ongoing.

    When dealing with players who have limited histories, I tend to want the guy who did well in 2012 and 2013 and continues today.

    I tend to discount the guy who needs to resuscitate himself from a subpar 2012 and a bad beginning to 2013.

  7. #80
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Costs the team, what? A base hit per week? He's bad compared to other people in the league, but it isn't like he can't catch routine balls or is like a pitcher running around out there.

    Meanwhile, he's providing plus value with his bat in the leadoff spot and allows the team to pursue another impact bat for LF at the deadline if Ryan Ludwick cannot come back.

    The hand-wringing over his defense is silly. He isn't great. So what. He still makes way more plays than he misses, and last I checked .400+ OBP bats don't grow on trees.
    But in a tight race or a playoff series not getting to a ball or muffing a ball that an average CF wouldn't could cost you big time, and his bat will not always be there to make up for it especially against tough pitching and lefties. I don't mind seeing him out there until the deadline and seeing who we could pick up, but if its not a left fielder move him over. The team would be better for it.

  8. #81
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    But in a tight race or a playoff series not getting to a ball or muffing a ball that an average CF wouldn't could cost you big time, and his bat will not always be there to make up for it especially against tough pitching and lefties. I don't mind seeing him out there until the deadline and seeing who we could pick up, but if its not a left fielder move him over. The team would be better for it.
    It's an 162 game season.

    The game Choo helps you win by going 3-4 with a 2B and 3R counts just as much as the game he costs you by muffing a fly ball.

    And I guarantee you there will be a lot more of the former games than the latter games for him this season.
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  9. #82
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    It's an 162 game season.

    The game Choo helps you win by going 3-4 with a 2B and 3R counts just as much as the game he costs you by muffing a fly ball.

    And I guarantee you there will be a lot more of the former games than the latter games for him this season.
    They do but what if its the playoffs? I'm pretty sure those games cost more and a loss has a bigger impact. Plus the pitching is way tougher and teams have left handed specialists there just to get him out. The likelihood of his bat making a positive impact will be lessened As compared his glove making a negative one. I'm not sweating the 162 game season. Unless there is a complete collapse the reds will at least be a wildcard team. Lets put the strongest team possible on the field for the playoffs and quit acting like its a crapshoot. That's just an excuse born out if losing in the first round 2 out of the last three seasons IMO. I'm sure Choos bat will help win games. So why don't we let his game winning bat wins those games in a corner spot and put a guy that can play potential game winning defense as compared to choo in center? Seems as if you'd win more games that way. It just strikese as odd how many people here would not want to improve the team when an improvement would be a quick switch. I'm all for letting him ride it out in center until the deadline because a big left field bat could be picked up and we could have what we had in theory at the beginning of the year. If not move the guy. There is no way anyone really thinks he is the best defensive CF available to the reds.
    Last edited by Old school 1983; 06-11-2013 at 05:26 PM.

  10. #83
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    It's an 162 game season.

    The game Choo helps you win by going 3-4 with a 2B and 3R counts just as much as the game he costs you by muffing a fly ball.

    And I guarantee you there will be a lot more of the former games than the latter games for him this season.
    Choo can't go 3-4 playing left?
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    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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  12. #84
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Well, Xavier Paul's good numbers have one rather important advantage -- they are current and ongoing.

    When dealing with players who have limited histories, I tend to want the guy who did well in 2012 and 2013 and continues today.

    I tend to discount the guy who needs to resuscitate himself from a subpar 2012 and a bad beginning to 2013.
    Obviously, Paul's current stats are better than Heisey's, but Paul has a total of about 200 total AB's with the Reds, whereas Heisey has almost 1000. We have a pretty good idea of what Heisey is capable of, and although it's nothing amazing, it is more sustainable and realistic than expecting Paul to keep up his current pace. Plus, Heisey plays good D.

  13. #85
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Choo can't go 3-4 playing left?
    Maybe.

    But I also want him going 3-4 in the playoffs and Ryan Ludwick (or some other acquired bat) going 3-4 for as well.

    The only way that happens is if he gets consistent reps in CF during the season.
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  14. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Maybe.

    But I also want him going 3-4 in the playoffs and Ryan Ludwick (or some other acquired bat) going 3-4 for as well.

    The only way that happens is if he gets consistent reps in CF during the season.
    Or if the Reds acquire a bat to play center (and Ludwick can't return).
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Or if the Reds acquire a bat to play center (and Ludwick can't return).
    The odds of the Reds finding a rent-a-bat that can play CF and produce plus value at the plate is probably next to zero.
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  17. #88
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Maybe.

    But I also want him going 3-4 in the playoffs and Ryan Ludwick (or some other acquired bat) going 3-4 for as well.

    The only way that happens is if he gets consistent reps in CF during the season.
    What if they can find that hitter in a 3b or SS? I'm cool with choo in center until the deadline, but if a lf isn't brought in move him over.

  18. #89
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    The odds of the Reds finding a rent-a-bat that can play CF and produce plus value at the plate is probably next to zero.
    What is plus value at the plate for a CFer? Honest question. Even if the Reds acquired the Paul Janish of CF and platooned him with Robinson, the defensive upgrade to LF and CF have to be worth something right?

  19. #90
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    Re: Uncle Part II: Stop the Madness in CF

    I don't see anty way Choo moves out of CF unless Billy Hamilton flips the switch and arrives at some point in 2013.

    I honestly think this whole issue is way overblown. Reading this thread and you'd think Choo was Adam Dunn or Post Injury Griffey. He's adequate as long as he hits. He doesn't really do that against LHP. That is when he needs to be "rested" and replaced by somebody else.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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