Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 24 FirstFirst 12345612 ... LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 359

Thread: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

  1. #16
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Lexington
    Posts
    5,985

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Trea Turner would fit this organization's needs like a glove (no pun intended).

    A college SS who can swing the bat and would move quickly, possibly debuting as early as 2016. Imagine a 2016 lineup of:

    CF Hamilton
    LF Winker/Ervin
    1B Votto
    2B Phillips
    RF Bruce
    3B Frazier
    C Mesoraco
    SS Turner

    SP Latos/Cueto
    SP Stephenson
    SP Chapman
    SP Cingrani
    SP Contreras/Travieso (although Travieso likely won't be ready until 2017 or 2018)

    CL Lorenzen
    I seriously belive that the final ship of the Chapman-to-the-rotationflotilla sailed this past spring - not tht that is bad thing - I doubt Arolis would be omre than a pedestrian starter after taking into account the loss of velocity he would see after converting to a starting role.

    I also think that at least two, if not three of Latos, Cueto, Bailey and Leake will still be in the Cincy rotation come 2016 along with Cingrani and Stephenson. I aso believe somone like Moscot (among others) may push for an open spot if there is one.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 09-11-2013 at 09:30 PM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #17
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,866

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I seriously belive that the final ship of the Chapman-to-the-rotationflotilla sailed this past spring - not tht that is bad thing - I doubt Arolis would be omre than a pedestrian starter after taking into account the loss of velocity he would see after converting to a starting role.

    I also think that at least two, if not three of Latos, Cueto, Bailey and Leake will still be in the Cincy rotation come 2016 along with Cingrani and Stephenson. I aso believe somone like Moscot (among others) may push for an open spot if there is one.
    I tend to agree with you on Chapman - the referenced post was made 3 months ago.

    That said, my new preferred course would be to trade either Chapman or Bailey this offseason for a young, ML-ready infielder we could plug immediately into the lineup. Guys who fit the bill include Jurickson Profar and Xander Bogaerts. A trade with the Dodgers may also make sense if we could wrestle away Joc Pedersen and Corey Seager.

    Then we could comfortably draft BPA and not worry about having to infuse our system with middle infield prospects, as the current dearth of talent in the organization would be taken care of.

    We could also then either keep Cozart for depth, or trade him for a one-year rental/platoon player in CF- someone like Nori Aoki (although the Brewers have Segura) or Brett Gardner (if the Yanks re-sign Granderson and Cano and need some salary relief to get under the luxury tax).
    Go BLUE!!!

  4. #18
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    775

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    If Choo and Arroyo both walk, and we offer compensation what are we looking at in return? Also is this a deep draft?

  5. #19
    -The Insider-
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    2,871

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    It's a deeper draft than the previous two. And if a team that doesn't pick in the top 10 will give up its draft pick if a qualifying offer is made. If the team is in the top 10 (i.e. Mets, Cubs), they will surrender it's second highest pick and the original team will receive a compensation pick.

    If I didn't explain that well (I probably didn't) Here's a full explanation: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...ng-offers.html

  6. #20
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    775

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    So we would receive one compensatory pick for each in between rounds 1 & 2...

  7. #21
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,821

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
    So we would receive one compensatory pick for each in between rounds 1 & 2...
    Yep, but I'm still on the fence as to whether an offer to Arroyo makes sense. I'd hate to see the Reds have to sell off other more valuable and longer term stuff to save money to make up for an Arroyo one year deal in the $13 to $14 Million range. If I was Arroyo, I'd absolutely take an offer if it was given.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #22
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,558

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Yep, but I'm still on the fence as to whether an offer to Arroyo makes sense. I'd hate to see the Reds have to sell off other more valuable and longer term stuff to save money to make up for an Arroyo one year deal in the $13 to $14 Million range. If I was Arroyo, I'd absolutely take an offer if it was given.
    I'm starting to worry about this too. If Arroyo thinks that a 30 for 3 contract is about the best he's likely to get, why wouldn't he take a 13-14 million contract for one year? His likelihood of finding a 2 for 16 contract the next year is going to be much higher than getting the 3 for 30 now. If he puts up a good year in 2014, he may get that from the Reds. Making the qualifying offer looks pretty risky to me, though of course one hates to see him walk without our getting any compensation.

  9. #23
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,821

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I'm starting to worry about this too. If Arroyo thinks that a 30 for 3 contract is about the best he's likely to get, why wouldn't he take a 13-14 million contract for one year? His likelihood of finding a 2 for 16 contract the next year is going to be much higher than getting the 3 for 30 now. If he puts up a good year in 2014, he may get that from the Reds. Making the qualifying offer looks pretty risky to me, though of course one hates to see him walk without our getting any compensation.
    With a draft pick attached to signing him, I'm not convinced 3 for $30 is all that likely. I'm thinking 2 for $18 or so with maybe an option on the 3rd year with a small buy-out. Teams that are in the bottom 10 probably won't be interested in a 37 Y/O Arroyo, so a signing team will lose a first rounder. If the money is so high to give them pause, they'll just look elsewhere.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #24
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,558

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    With a draft pick attached to signing him, I'm not convinced 3 for $30 is all that likely. I'm thinking 2 for $18 or so with maybe an option on the 3rd year with a small buy-out. Teams that are in the bottom 10 probably won't be interested in a 37 Y/O Arroyo, so a signing team will lose a first rounder. If the money is so high to give them pause, they'll just look elsewhere.
    If 2 for 18 is the number, then the presumption had better be that Arroyo will take the Reds' qualifying offer. At this point I think they'd better not make it as I don't see how they can take the risk of spending that much on him. Team needs too much restructuring otherwise.

  11. #25
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,821

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    If 2 for 18 is the number, then the presumption had better be that Arroyo will take the Reds' qualifying offer. At this point I think they'd better not make it as I don't see how they can take the risk of spending that much on him. Team needs too much restructuring otherwise.
    I'm leaning that way as well. The one thing though is that Arroyo may be bent on getting a three year deal and pass on the offer before he realizes it's a mistake. That seems a pretty big gamble to take since agreeing to the offer likely means cutting elsewhere (Bailey or Leake I'd guess and probably some other stuff too). They have some lesser dollar stuff they could move to free up some budget (Heisey and Hanigan might be examples of guys who will cost a couple million each and may need to be moved to afford more pressing needs and moving Ondrusek may help), but if Arroyo is back for a qualifying deal, moving them won't free money for a CF stopgap, just helps fit Arroyo onto the payroll.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #26
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,866

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    If 2 for 18 is the number, then the presumption had better be that Arroyo will take the Reds' qualifying offer. At this point I think they'd better not make it as I don't see how they can take the risk of spending that much on him. Team needs too much restructuring otherwise.
    Disagree. Reds should make the offer. It's worth the risk to get the pick. Worst case, Reds can either trade Arroyo if he accepts (not sure if this is legal?) or they can trade Bailey for one of the guy(s) I mentioned above (ie Profar, Bogaerts, Seager/Pedersen). Of course, I'd rather have Bailey than Arroyo, but I think getting an extra first round pick is worth risking the difference between the two (not to mention the players they could fetch in a Bailey trade).
    Go BLUE!!!

  13. #27
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,821

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Disagree. Reds should make the offer. It's worth the risk to get the pick. Worst case, Reds can either trade Arroyo if he accepts (not sure if this is legal?) or they can trade Bailey for one of the guy(s) I mentioned above (ie Profar, Bogaerts, Seager/Pedersen). Of course, I'd rather have Bailey than Arroyo, but I think getting an extra first round pick is worth risking the difference between the two (not to mention the players they could fetch in a Bailey trade).
    A couple presumptions I disagree with:


    1. Trading Bailey would be enough to offset Arroyo's cost.
    2. Anyone would deal for Arroyo at $13 Million+
    3. The Reds could get the top end guys you are talking about for a Bailey rental

    IMO, Arroyo coming back on a qualifying offer would lead to punting 2014. The rotation would be weakened if Bailey is dealt while Arroyo fills that spot. CF would need to be filled from within with players who have proven to be inadequate or not ready and the Reds would need to find another $3 or $4 Million some how probably by weakening the bullpen significantly.

    I see an offer as gambling the 2014 pennant race for a sandwich pick. I wouldn't make that trade.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #28
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,558

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Bailey gone, in my view, equals no contention in 2014. I just don't see us replacing 215 innings of 1.10 baseball next year.

  15. #29
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,866

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Bailey gone, in my view, equals no contention in 2014. I just don't see us replacing 215 innings of 1.10 baseball next year.
    You don't think a healthy Johnny Cueto could replicate/replace Bailey?
    Go BLUE!!!

  16. #30
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Posts
    9,866

    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    A couple presumptions I disagree with:


    1. Trading Bailey would be enough to offset Arroyo's cost.
    2. Anyone would deal for Arroyo at $13 Million+
    3. The Reds could get the top end guys you are talking about for a Bailey rental

    IMO, Arroyo coming back on a qualifying offer would lead to punting 2014. The rotation would be weakened if Bailey is dealt while Arroyo fills that spot. CF would need to be filled from within with players who have proven to be inadequate or not ready and the Reds would need to find another $3 or $4 Million some how probably by weakening the bullpen significantly.

    I see an offer as gambling the 2014 pennant race for a sandwich pick. I wouldn't make that trade.
    I wouldn't trade Bailey unless it was significantly upgrading the offense (ie SS or CF)
    Go BLUE!!!


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25