The reds pick 21st:
The reds pick 21st:
I know the Mets and Cubs are most likely suitors at the moment for Choo, but who would be good suitors for Arroyo (assuming he gets a qualifying offer as well)?
Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.
About the only way I see the Reds making an offer would be if the Reds decide to deal a starter this offseason and they want to overpay Arroyo as a one-year bridge to Stephenson.
The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.
Arroyo has pretty much said that the Reds need to offer him more than 1 year to come back. He pretty much implied this was his last chance to get a multiyear deal. In an interview, he even brought up "what if I break my collar bone in spring training next year and my career is over?"
There's no chance of Bronson accepting a one year arb deal, IMO.
He'll reject it and test the market.
Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
I think he would be happy staying. And, I think the Reds will offer three. If, however, the Reds fall substantially short of what he believes his value to be, it seems improbable to me that he will accept the qualifying offer and go through the process again next year. Doing so would be moving into year at a time contract territory.
Last edited by RedlegJake; 10-01-2013 at 05:17 PM.
No - I am not from State Farm!
If the Reds don't offer, Arroyo's market probably expands a bit and he might do better.
From the Reds standpoint, If he accepts a qualifying offer, I think there is more downside than you're assuming as well. That's $14 Million against the budget that the Reds are not counting on. It likely means some one else has to go for budgetary reasons (which means established players making money won't be coming in return). It's likely a downgrade for the rotation in 2014 if say the team is forced to deal Bailey or even Leake to make room for Arroyo's innings and contract. They may get a couple decent pieces for down the road, but it probably weakens them for 2014. Since the Cardinals are re-tooling before our eyes, the Pirates are young and improving and the Cubs have a top farm system, 2014 may be the last best chance and I'd rather keep Bailey or Leake as opposed to Arroyo in the rotation.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
"The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldn’t do it." - Brad Kullman
**Note: In the 2014 Draft, the first 11 picks will be protected instead of the first 10, as the Blue Jays will receive the 11th pick as compensation for failure to sign 2013 first-rounder Phil Bickford.
BA's top 50.
Maybe we could keep #30 wearing the same hat?