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Thread: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

  1. #31
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I wouldn't trade Bailey unless it was significantly upgrading the offense (ie SS or CF)
    Except if Arroyo accepts a deal for $13 Million plus, they are going to have to trade some money off the roster. So how do you fit that into the budget without dealing Bailey?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  3. #32
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Except if Arroyo accepts a deal for $13 Million plus, they are going to have to trade some money off the roster. So how do you fit that into the budget without dealing Bailey?
    Point is - by trading Bailey you're upgrading the offense. And if Johnny Cueto is healthy, he should be able to pitch like Vailey did this year. So with what would appear to be the same or a better team than this year, I have a hard time seeing how anyone would be punting 2014.
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  4. #33
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Point is - by trading Bailey you're upgrading the offense. And if Johnny Cueto is healthy, he should be able to pitch like Vailey did this year. So with what would appear to be the same or a better team than this year, I have a hard time seeing how anyone would be punting 2014.
    Not so sure. Your trading Bailey for prospects who don't make any money. Arroyo accepting the deal takes all the money and Bailey is being dealt to get back to budget. If you take money back, you're still over-budget. Under those circumstances, you get the best prospects you can get and that may not include anyone who is ready to upgrade the offense in 2014. There is only a limited few guys who may satisfy those requirements and you may not get any of them, but you'll still be forced to deal Bailey because Arroyo accepting means he has to go.

    If you want to shop Bailey to upgrade the offense, then there has to be an option for keeping him if you don't get what you want. If Arroyo accepts a big contract, that option won't exist. You'll be moving from shopping Bailey to dumping Bailey.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #34
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Not so sure. Your trading Bailey for prospects who don't make any money. Arroyo accepting the deal takes all the money and Bailey is being dealt to get back to budget. If you take money back, you're still over-budget. Under those circumstances, you get the best prospects you can get and that may not include anyone who is ready to upgrade the offense in 2014. There is only a limited few guys who may satisfy those requirements and you may not get any of them, but you'll still be forced to deal Bailey because Arroyo accepting means he has to go.

    If you want to shop Bailey to upgrade the offense, then there has to be an option for keeping him if you don't get what you want. If Arroyo accepts a big contract, that option won't exist. You'll be moving from shopping Bailey to dumping Bailey.
    Again disagree. Good GMs know their players' value in the trade market. It's their job. If Walt doesnt believe he can trade Bailey for a cheap upgrade to the offense, maybe they shouldn't make a qualifying offer to Arroyo. I happen to believe Bailey could fetch that on the trade market, which is why I'd make the offer.
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  6. #35
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Again disagree. Good GMs know their players' value in the trade market. It's their job. If Walt doesnt believe he can trade Bailey for a cheap upgrade to the offense, maybe they shouldn't make a qualifying offer to Arroyo. I happen to believe Bailey could fetch that on the trade market, which is why I'd make the offer.
    Counting on being able to find the exact right prospect or two who can upgrade the offense for 2014 is pretty iffy. Bailey probably wouldn't fetch Profar, but even if he would, it's debatable that his .639 OPS would upgrade the offense in 2014. I'm sure every other young player would be in the same boat.

    IMO, the answer to the offense is to let Arroyo walk and keep Bailey while using that $4 or $5 Million difference between Arroyo's qualifying offer and Bailey's likely arb award to secure an affordable stopgap with a track record.

    I'm all for adding young talent too, but the depth area is the bullpen IMO (especially if Marshall and maybe Broxton seem likely to be back in 2014). Chapman is the guy I'd deal for that young talent. He'd free enough money to allow a mid-range free agent or two to backfill in the pen more reasonably and maybe help get a better guy to stopgap CF while filling the holes with vets to allow the team to get the best young guys available rather than taking lesser ones who may fill those needs. Keeping Arroyo and dealing Bailey doesn't free money to do that (because Arroyo is likely to make $4 or $5 million more than Bailey would). Keeping the better arm for lesser bucks while dealing Chapman gives wiggle room. Subbing Arroyo for Bailey eats it up.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Kind of a gamble...

    Offer Arroyo, if he accepts come back with an additional year for 5 to 7 million more. Trade Bailey at that point.

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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
    Kind of a gamble...

    Offer Arroyo, if he accepts come back with an additional year for 5 to 7 million more. Trade Bailey at that point.
    Under this scenario, 3/5ths of the rotation consists of a 37 year old, a guy who'll make about 11 or 12 starts this year, and a promising young second year lefthander (remember Travis Wood's 2nd season?). I'd project that team no better than 3rd in our division.

  9. #38
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    With a draft pick attached to signing him, I'm not convinced 3 for $30 is all that likely. I'm thinking 2 for $18 or so with maybe an option on the 3rd year with a small buy-out. Teams that are in the bottom 10 probably won't be interested in a 37 Y/O Arroyo, so a signing team will lose a first rounder. If the money is so high to give them pause, they'll just look elsewhere.
    I think it's harder to predict than that.
    For example, the Brewers signed Lohse last year. Who would've predicted that?
    And the Indians signing Bourne was a surprise.

    Arroyo is an inning eater and potentially a mentor for young pitching.
    I could see a team like Houston interested in signing Bronson.
    Sure, they give up a 2nd round pick, but in return, they get a guy to eat 200 innings, which helps protect their young pitchers. Arroyo might also be able to teach them a few things. Then there's always the option of trading Arroyo at the deadline in 2015 or 2016.

    Bronson has been so durable and reliable, some team will think it's not risky to offer him 3 years. I think there's going to be a lot of interest. An article mentioned the Giants as well.

    Based on what Bronson said in the interview, I think there's no chance of him accepting arbitration with the Reds. He said this is probably his last chance to get a LTC, and there's always the risk of your career ending in spring training...
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Under this scenario, 3/5ths of the rotation consists of a 37 year old, a guy who'll make about 11 or 12 starts this year, and a promising young second year lefthander (remember Travis Wood's 2nd season?). I'd project that team no better than 3rd in our division.
    Cueto until his recent problems has had no injuries ever. Hopefully it was a one time thing and it is now straightened out.

    As for Ciangrani dude will be in the starting rotation mainly because he is only making 700k or whatever the league min. is.

    As a mid-major team you have to take risks the Major market teams don't mainly because of payroll and this is one of them.

    Greg Reynolds is serviceable and hopefully will be resigned, and in a pinch we have Sharky and Corcino at AAA...

  11. #40
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
    Cueto until his recent problems has had no injuries ever. Hopefully it was a one time thing and it is now straightened out.

    As for Ciangrani dude will be in the starting rotation mainly because he is only making 700k or whatever the league min. is.

    As a mid-major team you have to take risks the Major market teams don't mainly because of payroll and this is one of them.

    Greg Reynolds is serviceable and hopefully will be resigned, and in a pinch we have Sharky and Corcino at AAA...
    Agreed, I think the OP makes a ridiculous assertion: a rotation of Latos, Leake, Cueto, Cingrani and Arroyo (plus a significant offensive upgrade) going into next year "projects to no better than 3rd in the division?" Another poster said earlier this would be akin to "punting the season?"

    It's not Monday night anymore, but C'MON MAN!
    Last edited by Benihana; 09-17-2013 at 12:21 PM.
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  12. #41
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Counting on being able to find the exact right prospect or two who can upgrade the offense for 2014 is pretty iffy. Bailey probably wouldn't fetch Profar, but even if he would, it's debatable that his .639 OPS would upgrade the offense in 2014. I'm sure every other young player would be in the same boat.

    IMO, the answer to the offense is to let Arroyo walk and keep Bailey while using that $4 or $5 Million difference between Arroyo's qualifying offer and Bailey's likely arb award to secure an affordable stopgap with a track record.

    I'm all for adding young talent too, but the depth area is the bullpen IMO (especially if Marshall and maybe Broxton seem likely to be back in 2014). Chapman is the guy I'd deal for that young talent. He'd free enough money to allow a mid-range free agent or two to backfill in the pen more reasonably and maybe help get a better guy to stopgap CF while filling the holes with vets to allow the team to get the best young guys available rather than taking lesser ones who may fill those needs. Keeping Arroyo and dealing Bailey doesn't free money to do that (because Arroyo is likely to make $4 or $5 million more than Bailey would). Keeping the better arm for lesser bucks while dealing Chapman gives wiggle room. Subbing Arroyo for Bailey eats it up.
    I also would have no problem trading Chapman this offseason, especially for a significant offensive upgrade.

    I'm not sure who has more trade value between Bailey and Chapman at this point once you factor in their contract situations, but either way, I do believe the Reds should deal one of them for a significant offensive upgrade this offseason. And in either scenario, I would make Arroyo a qualifying offer and hope that he signs elsewhere so the Reds can get an additional first round pick (bringing the convo back full circle to the thread topic).
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Agreed, I think the OP makes a ridiculous assertion: a rotation of Latos, Leake, Cueto, Cingrani and Arroyo (plus a significant offensive upgrade) going into next year "projects to no better than 3rd in the division?" Another poster said earlier this would be akin to "punting the season?"

    It's not Monday night anymore, but C'MON MAN!
    Team's third in the division this year with Bailey so I don't know what's ridiculous about projecting them third next year without him. If Cueto can carry 200 innings next year, and if Cingrani can pitch 180 at the level he's done this year, and if there's no diminishment in Arroyo, then maybe next year the team could be better than third without Bailey. But what would be ridiculous--and the mark of bad management--is assuming all those things will be true. I simply think most of the trade Bailey talk generally undervalues his importance to the team. In addition to which, while Profar or Bogaerts would likely represent significantly better value to Reds over the long haul than Cozart, it's hard to project them as being so significantly better than Cozart in 2014 as to make up for not having Bailey.

  14. #43
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Team's third in the division this year with Bailey so I don't know what's ridiculous about projecting them third next year without him. If Cueto can carry 200 innings next year, and if Cingrani can pitch 180 at the level he's done this year, and if there's no diminishment in Arroyo, then maybe next year the team could be better than third without Bailey.
    Ok, but the Reds are also on par to win 90-95 games this year. If they can do that again next year, most of us will be pretty happy.

    But what would be ridiculous--and the mark of bad management--is assuming all those things will be true. I simply think most of the trade Bailey talk generally undervalues his importance to the team. In addition to which, while Profar or Bogaerts would likely represent significantly better value to Reds over the long haul than Cozart, it's hard to project them as being so significantly better than Cozart in 2014 as to make up for not having Bailey.
    Maybe that's right, but I don't think you're factoring in the risk of losing Bailey for nothing after next year. If you can get Profar or Bogaerts rather than nothing/a sandwich pick, I think you have to strongly consider that, no matter how big or small of an improvement those players would be above Cozart next year.

    And I don't see why it's ridiculous to assume Cingrani can repeat this year's performance. He is 24 years old and his numbers at every stop in the minors were even better than he performed this year. Arroyo has been the paragon of consistency, and if one thinks that he'll fall off a cliff next year, than I would agree it would be foolish to pay him $14M next year. Cueto is a health risk - I agree, but that is a risk a small market team may have to take, especially while he is getting paid eight figures.

    All that said, if the Reds can re-sign Latos and Bailey, I would do it and NOT trade Bailey. All of this is built on the (maybe incorrect) presumption that Bailey is bolting after next year.
    Last edited by Benihana; 09-17-2013 at 03:40 PM.
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    I am factoring in the risk of losing Bailey for little more than a sandwich pick the following year. In fact, I assume that is what is likely to happen because I don't think there's much of a chance he signs longer term with the Reds. I consider him one of the top ten pitchers in baseball and I think he'll be paid accordingly--and more than the Reds, given other requirements, will be able to pay. I probably just see our overall situation as being a little worse than you, Beni, do. Without Bailey I don't see us contending in 2014--unless, as I said in my previous post, we get a possible but somewhat unlikely combination of circumstances in the rotation. With Bailey, I think we have a chance, though I'd like to see the offense upgraded as much as you would--and I think there are maybe as many as six positions where an upgrade would be useful.

  16. #45
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    For me, a chance to make a run at a championship in 2014 is more important than getting something for Bailey before he walks. He's a guy that you do make a qualifying offer to. By then, Stephenson should be ready to take his spot.

    I really don't see this team getting anything that is sure to help the offense in 2014. I don't see a prospect out there who is a cinch to outhit Cozart's .660 OPS this year (see Profar's .639) or Frazier Low .700's (Nolan Arenado's .708, Jed Gyorko's .713 or Anthony Rendon's .719 an upgrade?). If the team is willing to reduce it's chances at 2014 (i.e. punt) they could probably get a couple longer term prospects for Bailey, but if Arroyo accepts (the reason you'd be dealing Bailey), there will be even less to spend to address the offense. There isn't a Will Myers out there who looks like a high probability offensive force to be had in a deal. Most of the top offensive prospects don't project to be ready in 2014.

    I'm against any move that risks 2014 for the longer term and IMO, resigning Arroyo while dealing Bailey for kids does just that. Dealing Chapman doesn't do that IMO because he'd free enough cash to obtain a lower cost backfill to team with the depth from within and he'd free money for other needs.

    Eating up the budget and being stuck with a .650ish AAA OPS patrolling CF is punting 2014 IMO. Arroyo on the roster at $14 Million means just that IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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