Signing bonus does become a consideration in the top 10 rounds, given the slot values. So, you'll generally see a senior or two within the top 10 so as to have some extra cash for other picks.Generally speaking that is how the first 10 rounds go. After that you can draft for needs, but it isn't big league needs as much as it is "we actually need a guy to play X position in Arizona or Billings", so maybe you grab a guy to fill that out.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Potential Top 5 Pick Jeff Hoffman To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
By Steve Adams [May 7, 2014 at 1:44pm CDT]
East Carolina University right-hander Jeff Hoffman — a projected Top 5 pick in this year’s amateur draft — will miss the remainder of the season with an arm injury, reports Kendall Rogers of PerfectGame.org (via Twitter). ESPN’s Keith Law adds that the news is even worse than that, as Hoffman will require Tommy John surgery (Twitter link).
Scouting reports indicate that Hoffman is an excellent athlete with a fastball that reaches 97 mph and a plus curveball when he’s at his best. The 6’4″, 192-pound right-hander has posted a 2.94 ERA in 67 1/3 innings this season, striking out 72 batters against 20 walks and holding opponents to a .216 batting average.
Hoffman’s injury doesn’t necessarily preclude him from being selected in the first or second round of the draft. In 2012, right-hander Lucas Giolito was considered a potential No. 1 overall pick before he sprained his UCL, causing him to drop to the Nationals with the 16th pick. Last season, injury concerns over former projected Top 5 pick Sean Manaea caused him to fall to the Royals with the No. 34 pick. Clubs with extra draft picks and/or large draft pools could take a chance on Hoffman, conceding the year of development time and a slower start to his career in order to land a Top 5 talent far later than originally anticipated.
So, is Hoffman worth pick #29? #55?Originally Posted by Gallen5862
Yes. Definitely 55. Probably 29. Hell maybe even 19. This is a big error/inefficiency in the market IMO, that teams overestimate the impact of near-term injury. A high number of these pitchers will face TJ surgery at some point, many before they ever throw an inning in the majors. The fact that Hoffman is "getting it out of the way now" shouldn't put as big of a discount on his talent as some might assume.
Just look at Dylan Bundy. Or Jameson Tallion. Or Matt Harvey. Or Matt Moore. The list goes on.
It's the same logic why I really wanted the Reds to draft Lucas Giolito two years ago. Instead the Reds passed on the consensus top talent arm who was facing TJ for Nick Travieso. Last month, BP rated Giolito the #14 prospect in the game. No knock on Travieso, but Giolito was the better talent, even after discounting him for facing TJ surgery. Without having seen his full medical records, if the Reds have the opportunity to get Hoffman at 55 or even 29, they should pounce. Premium talent is premium talent, and TJ surgery has become a lot more of a likely thing that pitchers will face early in their development anyway.
Go BLUE!!!
Now it looks like Bukauskas will be attending college. Or so he says.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...pass-on-draft/
Maybe the Reds take a flier they can sign him to an overslot deal in the 11th?
Go BLUE!!!
Going to have to save a whole bunch of money elsewhere to get him that late. Very risky because you would probably have to overdraft at least one of the first rounders and probably your 2nd-4th as well to make up the money to pay him what he would get if he just said "I will sign". If he doesn't sign, you really screwed your entire draft up.
Nah. I wouldn't overdraft one of the first three picks dependent on that. Maybe guys 3rd round and later. If there's not enough to sign him, there's not enough. Worst case you overdrafted a 3rd or 4th rounder and forfeited your 11th rounder. Not the end of the world - especially given what the Reds did in 2009 and 2010.
Every year there is an "unsignable" guy or three that end up signing when the rubber meets the road. Josh Bell with the Pirates a few years back. Rowdy Tellez, Steven Farinaro, and Jake Brentz last year.
Go BLUE!!!
You know, I did forget to account for the wiggle room for going over your allotment.
For those who want to find a SS with one of the top three picks, Corona, CA HS SS Josh Morgan looks like he's rising. Matt Garrioch's blurb on him is:
Garrioch's got him just a hair below Trea Turner.Excellent D at SS. Fun to watch on defense. Strong arm. Good athlete. Stays coiled and attacks the ball late. Good line drive swing. Solid hit tool.
One kid who strikes me as a sleeper arm (potential 3rd or 4th rounder) is Granite Bay, CA RHP Mitch Hart. 6'4", lean build, strokes it in the low 90s, has a good working change. Big thing is he's only 17. Had he waited another year to start kindergarten, he might be in the 1st round mix in the 2015 draft (done a lot of climbing this year, but still maturing physically).
Last edited by M2; 05-08-2014 at 12:35 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Baseball America has up their first mock draft: http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...op-first-mock/
19. Reds Projected Pick: Sean Reid-Foley
29. Reds Projected Pick: Milton Ramos
Two things:
1.) That NC State uniform is awesome
2.) What are your thoughts on Reid-Foley and Ramos?
Thoughts on the BA mock:
- I get the distinct impression the Reds aren't telling BA squat. Both those blurbs read like they were pure dart throws.
- I would need to be strapped to a table and gagged to prevent me from drafting Monte Harrison if he was on the board at #19. I'm not saying he's a sure thing or the obvious pick, but I so want the stud he could be. Though I'd be shocked if he got past the Royals at #17 (Harrison lives in a KC suburb).
- Reid-Foley seems to have been passed by some arms in recent months. He's still hovering in the 1st round, but it begs the question of whether you prefer an arm with helium or an arm that's been consistently well-regarded? And you very well might have different answers dependent on whether it's a prep or college arm.
- I would be stunned to see Ramos go that high.
- I dream on Touki Toussaint a lot too, but I figure someone will snatch him up before #19. He seems like a true wild card pick in that he could go anywhere in the 1st round.
- Interesting to see Michael Chavis slip to the 2nd round in that mock.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
The Reid-Foley pick looks like a good guess to me. The first round SS's will likely be gone, so the Reds are likely to take a pitcher. They seem to like HS pitchers. Ramos seems like a reach to me at 29, given the questions about his hitting. If the Reds were hell bent on taking a SS at 29, I think Ti'quan Forbes would be a better choice, more fall backs if he doesn't stick at SS. If he does stick there, could be a real plus player, a SS with speed and a bat.
Re: the BA mock, I like what the little mlb.com clips show of Reid-Foley and Ramos. Reid-Foley's arm looks live, his delivery is athletic enough for me, and his stuff really moves. I can see why they're saying it's a very deep draft for arms at the top.
Ramos looks like a pure SS. Given the scarcity at that position, I wouldn't be bothered.
From what I gather, very few scouts expect him to hit in pro ball. If the Reds want to collect athletic, glovesy shortstops with questionable bats, then I'm much more comfortable going the Carlton Daal/Cory Thompson route. There's no reason to invest a high pick and a fat bonus in that kind of player.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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