Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

[Rojo]

- I would need to be strapped to a table and gagged to prevent me from drafting Monte Harrison if he was on the board at #19. I'm not saying he's a sure thing or the obvious pick, but I so want the stud he could be. Though I'd be shocked if he got past the Royals at #17 (Harrison lives in a KC suburb).

Certainly a Jimbo pick. Ten years ago I'd be all over it. Back then a tools guy like a Glenallen Hill or a Mark Whiten had a good chance of being impactful. But the grounds are shifting quickly; I'd heavily scrutinize bat-on-the-ball skills.

[M2]

Certainly a Jimbo pick. Ten years ago I'd be all over it. Back then a tools guy like a Glenallen Hill or a Mark Whiten had a good chance of being impactful. But the grounds are shifting quickly; I'd heavily scrutinize bat-on-the-ball skills.

Or you could go more modern: Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Yasiel Puig. It doesn't always work out, but Harrison does come sprinkled in a certain amount of stardust. Supposedly Harrison's doing a pretty good job of hitting this spring. Gatewood and Gettys are the two who are dropping due to bat-on-ball issues.

[Rojo]

Or you could go more modern: Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Yasiel Puig. It doesn't always work out, but Harrison does come sprinkled in a certain amount of stardust. Supposedly Harrison's doing a pretty good job of hitting this spring. Gatewood and Gettys are the two who are dropping due to bat-on-ball issues.

If a guy can hit, he can hit. My point was that toolsy guys with second-tier hit-tools aren't going to play like they could a few years ago. I'm not saying that's the case with Harrison.

[M2]

If a guy can hit, he can hit. My point was that toolsy guys with second-tier hit-tools aren't going to play like they could a few years ago. I'm not saying that's the case with Harrison.

I actually think the world is kinder to those guys now. Pitchers are throwing so hard now, they're knocking the bats out of guys' hands. Plus, without everyone being on the juice, it takes real muscle to power the ball over the fences on a consistent basis. In the past decade, the NL slashline has dropped from .263/.333/.423 to .248/.312/.388. Players with fast twitch reflexes and prodigious biceps are at least equipped to fight back. The reality is very few players in today's game have first-tier hitting skills.

What roid ball seemed to give hitters was more power and slightly quicker swings. It changed guys like Rafael Palmeiro from something like Darin Erstad into something more like Eddie Murray. Take away the chemical booster seat and we're back to sheer athleticism providing the value adds beyond pitch recognition and swing mechanics. Giancarlo is a perfect example. He does not have a perfect swing, but he has a fast, violent swing that overpowers a lot of pitches. He fell into the second round (pick #76) because he got written off as a Glenallen Hill wannabe in some circles. Now he's a bit of a prototype.

[lollipopcurve]

From what I gather, very few scouts expect him to hit in pro ball. If the Reds want to collect athletic, glovesy shortstops with questionable bats, then I'm much more comfortable going the Carlton Daal/Cory Thompson route. There's no reason to invest a high pick and a fat bonus in that kind of player.

If he's really good with the glove, he's a rarity. And defense at that position plays -- or will play, more and more in the future. I don't know enough about the player to really lobby for or against taking him. Maybe he's a great baserunner and a great kid, maybe not. Maybe the Reds' Latin shortstops coming out of the DSL are legit, maybe not. (I'm not sold on Thompson at the moment.) My POV is that if there's a true SS with good athleticism and other positive qualities, the hit tool is not a deal maker/breaker, given the scarcity in the organization and the industry.

[PepperJack]

MLB.com's Jim Callis answers some mailbag questions about the draft and more.

Includes a couple of notes of interest to Reds fans.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/...&vkey=news_mlb

[Benihana]

Love all the Draft chatter - been waiting for it all Spring!

One month out, updated target list (no particular order):

FIRST ROUND (#19)
Trea Turner SS
Touki Toussaint RHP
Brandon Finnegan LHP
Sean Newcomb LHP

SANDWICH (#29)
Max Pentecost C
Jacob Gatewood SS/3B
Forrest Wall 2B
Marcus Wilson OF
Monte Harrison OF

SECOND ROUND (#55?)
Justus Sheffield LHP
Mac Marshall LHP
Ti'quan Forbes SS
JJ Schwarz C

While this list still pretty much stands for me, I'm actually starting to have questions about Trea Turner. Still wouldn't be upset with the pick, but not sure he'd be my number 1 target anymore. If Touissant and Newcomb were both off the board, I'd be OK with it- but I might target those two first. Maybe Harrison too.

Finnegan is also starting to make me nervous, given the short stature, high effort delivery and already having injury concerns. I would add Jeff Hoffman (now that he has fallen backwards) to my wish list at 29, and wouldn't be all that upset if we took him at 19.

Still would LOVE any of those four guys at 55. Forbes and Sheffield especially.

[M2]

If he's really good with the glove, he's a rarity. And defense at that position plays -- or will play, more and more in the future. I don't know enough about the player to really lobby for or against taking him. Maybe he's a great baserunner and a great kid, maybe not. Maybe the Reds' Latin shortstops coming out of the DSL are legit, maybe not. (I'm not sold on Thompson at the moment.) My POV is that if there's a true SS with good athleticism and other positive qualities, the hit tool is not a deal maker/breaker, given the scarcity in the organization and the industry.

The glove tool is easy to find. Throw a rock in Venezuela or the Dominican or Curacao. I'm not sold on Thompson either, but he's got everything Ramos supposedly has and he only cost a 5th round pick and $368k. I don't mind going with glovesmiths at SS, but not at #29. That's a pick where you should be looking for impact players, which means some sort of hitting ability is required. Far as I can tell Josh Morgan is better at pretty much everything. My SS list consists of Gordon, Turner and Morgan, then it ends (at least for higher picks). Forbes is being considered a 3B in some circles.

The Matt Bush comparisons Ramos is getting scare me, particularly because they seem accurate.

[lollipopcurve]

The Matt Bush comparisons Ramos is getting scare me, particularly because they seem accurate.

If he's getting Matt Bush comps, I'd be stunned if he goes inside the top 50.

[M2]

If he's getting Matt Bush comps, I'd be stunned if he goes inside the top 50.

That was the weird thing about Matt Bush, people knew his bat was suspect and he still went #1. Literally, a significant portion of the industry talked itself into thinking that it didn't matter that much if he couldn't hit very well. So I will renew my insistence that the bat matters.

[PepperJack]

Baseball America's Top 100 draft prospects.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/colle...rospects-list/

[19braves77]

I guess I would like to see the Reds take Kodi Medeiros. The crazy movement he has yet to control would be fun to watch nightly in Pensacola

[RedTeamGo!]

I watched Mederois throw 5 pitches - he will pitch in the major leagues.

[lollipopcurve]

I also like Medeiros, but the mechanics are wacky. High ceiling/low floor.

[Benihana]

Keith Law's mock draft is out, and he has the Reds selecting Sean Reid-Foley. However his comments are more interesting to me:

Analysis: I've heard them on a pretty broad mix of guys, mostly prep, including Monte Harrison, who is one of the fastest risers late in the spring.

If Touissant, Newcomb, and Turner are all off the board at 19, as they are in this draft, Monte Harrison would be my guy. Brandon Finnegan is another guy that would interest me, although I'm a bit wary of his stature, mechanics and health questions.