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Thread: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

  1. #46
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    For me, a chance to make a run at a championship in 2014 is more important than getting something for Bailey before he walks. He's a guy that you do make a qualifying offer to. By then, Stephenson should be ready to take his spot.

    I really don't see this team getting anything that is sure to help the offense in 2014. I don't see a prospect out there who is a cinch to outhit Cozart's .660 OPS this year (see Profar's .639) or Frazier Low .700's (Nolan Arenado's .708, Jed Gyorko's .713 or Anthony Rendon's .719 an upgrade?). If the team is willing to reduce it's chances at 2014 (i.e. punt) they could probably get a couple longer term prospects for Bailey, but if Arroyo accepts (the reason you'd be dealing Bailey), there will be even less to spend to address the offense. There isn't a Will Myers out there who looks like a high probability offensive force to be had in a deal. Most of the top offensive prospects don't project to be ready in 2014.

    I'm against any move that risks 2014 for the longer term and IMO, resigning Arroyo while dealing Bailey for kids does just that. Dealing Chapman doesn't do that IMO because he'd free enough cash to obtain a lower cost backfill to team with the depth from within and he'd free money for other needs.

    Eating up the budget and being stuck with a .650ish AAA OPS patrolling CF is punting 2014 IMO. Arroyo on the roster at $14 Million means just that IMO.
    How do you reconcile your last sentence/scenario with Walt's comments this week that they will make a real effort to re-sign Choo, fully realizing that it will take a LOT of money? In other words, how is the budget SO tight for 2014 that having Arroyo on the books for one more year at his current salary + $2 million will force you to "dump" Bailey, not improving CF, SS, or 3B, and "punt 2014"?

    How will your last scenario possibly play out if/when they are trying to re-sign Choo?
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  3. #47
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    How do you reconcile your last sentence/scenario with Walt's comments this week that they will make a real effort to re-sign Choo, fully realizing that it will take a LOT of money? In other words, how is the budget SO tight for 2014 that having Arroyo on the books for one more year at his current salary + $2 million will force you to "dump" Bailey, not improving CF, SS, or 3B, and "punt 2014"?

    How will your last scenario possibly play out if/when they are trying to re-sign Choo?
    If the Reds let Choo, Bailey, Masset, Arredondo and other free agents walk and simply bring back the guys already in the organization, the payroll will be around the same amount in 2014 that it is in 2013. Raises and arb awards will eat up any of those savings. The Reds could conceivably sign Choo or some other player in the $10 to $15 Million range. But if they sub-Arroyo for Bailey, that $5 Million difference probably limits them to a $5 to $8 Million or so guy assuming a reasonable increase in salary and Ludwick's buy-out and Arroyo's deferred money are not figured in the spending. Add the Ludwick and Arroyo money and it would take a well over 10% increase in the budget.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-17-2013 at 08:54 PM. Reason: Checked the math
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  4. #48
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Team's third in the division this year with Bailey so I don't know what's ridiculous about projecting them third next year without him. .
    Well, I agree that if no chances are made, we might be third in the central next year.

    On the other hand, we got very little out of Cueto, Marshal, Broxton, and Ludwick this year due to injuries. Plus, there's hope some of the younger guys might get a little bit better/consistent (Hoover, Cozart, Mez, Frazier). There's some upside to this team next year, if they can stay healthy.

    I guess another way to look at it: What if Homer got hurt in Spring Training and was out for the year? I think the team still would have a decent shot at the playoffs. I don't want to lose Homer, but it wouldn't necessarily be crippling.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

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  5. #49
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If the Reds let Choo, Bailey, Masset, Arredondo and other free agents walk and simply bring back the guys already in the organization, the payroll will be around the same amount in 2014 that it is in 2013. Raises and arb awards will eat up any of those savings. The Reds could conceivably sign Choo or some other player in the $10 to $15 Million range. But if they sub-Arroyo for Bailey, that $5 Million difference probably limits them to a $5 to $8 Million or so guy assuming a reasonable increase in salary and Ludwick's buy-out and Arroyo's deferred money are not figured in the spending. Add the Ludwick and Arroyo money and it would take a well over 10% increase in the budget.
    Don't follow you. If the Reds are really considering signing Choo to a big deal as Walt said they are this week, there is more room in the budget then you are accounting for.

    The status quo/raise logic is old-world John Allen/pre 2012 speak.
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  6. #50
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    You don't think a healthy Johnny Cueto could replicate/replace Bailey?
    I do. (It would be close one way or another)

    But I don't know if you roll the dice counting on Cueto all year.

  7. #51
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Don't follow you. If the Reds are really considering signing Choo to a big deal as Walt said they are this week, there is more room in the budget then you are accounting for.

    The status quo/raise logic is old-world John Allen/pre 2012 speak.
    I estimated some numbers.

    If the Reds let everyone walk and bring back their own guys with reasonable estimates for the arb guys and replace Parra, Izturis and Choo with minimum guys, that would put them at around $111 Million. If they sign Choo at say $15 Million for 2014, that would put them at $126 Million. If Arroyo comes back at a qualifying offer of $14 Million and the Reds deal off the $9 Million or so that Bailey is likely to command, that would bump it to $131 Million. Ryan Ludwick has a $4.5 Million buy-out at the end of his deal, but Cots says it's deferred, so I'm not counting it, but it will cost something either in funding or the first payment. Arroyo will begin to collect payments on his deferral next year as well ($2.5 Million per year through 2021?) but I'm not sure how much of that is funded, so it isn't in the numbers.

    I just don't think they go over $120 Million (which would be over a $15 Million bump when you consider the $3 Million that Cleveland is paying). I'm doubtful that Choo comes back. It would be nice to have him the next couple of years, but a big deal beyond that doesn't really thrill me. If they could get him back, I'm guessing they would need to dump a couple guys in the $2 to $3 Million range (Hanigan, Heisey maybe Ondrusek) and sub minimum guys in their place to stay around the $120 to $125 Million range. These numbers don't consider other guys who will be on the 40 man roster and some making major league money while guys are on the DL. Probably need to add a couple million for that and there aren't any in-season acquisitions included, though we haven't really seen that. I just think the risk of Arroyo accepting and adding a $14 Million salary on top of all that and forcing a Bailey deal and looking for other spots to cut is not something the team will risk. If the Payroll can go to the $135 to $140 Million range with all the money counted, I guess there is no problem, but I'd have to see it to believe it.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #52
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I estimated some numbers.

    If the Reds let everyone walk and bring back their own guys with reasonable estimates for the arb guys and replace Parra, Izturis and Choo with minimum guys, that would put them at around $111 Million. If they sign Choo at say $15 Million for 2014, that would put them at $126 Million. If Arroyo comes back at a qualifying offer of $14 Million and the Reds deal off the $9 Million or so that Bailey is likely to command, that would bump it to $131 Million. Ryan Ludwick has a $4.5 Million buy-out at the end of his deal, but Cots says it's deferred, so I'm not counting it, but it will cost something either in funding or the first payment. Arroyo will begin to collect payments on his deferral next year as well ($2.5 Million per year through 2021?) but I'm not sure how much of that is funded, so it isn't in the numbers.

    I just don't think they go over $120 Million (which would be over a $15 Million bump when you consider the $3 Million that Cleveland is paying). I'm doubtful that Choo comes back. It would be nice to have him the next couple of years, but a big deal beyond that doesn't really thrill me. If they could get him back, I'm guessing they would need to dump a couple guys in the $2 to $3 Million range (Hanigan, Heisey maybe Ondrusek) and sub minimum guys in their place to stay around the $120 to $125 Million range. These numbers don't consider other guys who will be on the 40 man roster and some making major league money while guys are on the DL. Probably need to add a couple million for that and there aren't any in-season acquisitions included, though we haven't really seen that. I just think the risk of Arroyo accepting and adding a $14 Million salary on top of all that and forcing a Bailey deal and looking for other spots to cut is not something the team will risk. If the Payroll can go to the $135 to $140 Million range with all the money counted, I guess there is no problem, but I'd have to see it to believe it.
    I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. I don't see how someone not affiliated with the organization can arbitrarily surmise what the payroll will be in future years with any kind of certainty. And the scenario I called you out on says Bronson, no Bailey, no Choo (Hamilton starting in CF). Don't see how that plays out if there is the extra payroll room to pursue Choo.

    Personally, I would not sign Choo for more than 3 years, but I would extend qualifying offers to both Choo and Arroyo.
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  9. #53
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    the Reds are really considering signing Choo to a big deal as Walt said they are this week
    Where/when did he say this? Is it in print?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Where/when did he say this? Is it in print?

    I think he is referencing this:http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/2013/...nt-and-future/



    Were hopeful and confident we can bring Choo back. Wed like to bring Choo back, Jocketty said. Well see what happens. Well make a good effort to bring him back. If not, then well give Billy the opportunity to see what he can do. Theres no question defensively that hed be able play there right now and handle base running and everything else. Its just a question with the offense. Wed have to be patient with him if hes out there every day and let him gradually grow into it. Ideally, Id like to work him in a little slower but well see what happens.

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  12. #55
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    EDIT: Oops, thanks PJ
    Last edited by Benihana; 09-18-2013 at 12:28 PM.
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  13. #56
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    On my reading, Walt's statement about re-signing Choo is so vague as to be meaningless. It says next to nothing beyond "we'll try."

  14. #57
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    That said, the Reds will get a revenue increase in the form of a new TV contract in 2016, and the Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips extensions show that the club isn't afraid to spend big on key players.
    Could it be this revenue that Walt is counting on to extend Choo? Say it is 120 million in 2014 and 2015, but is bumped up a bit after we get the revenue money in 2016.

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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Another dog in this hunt, Bob Castellini is in his 70's, he worth just north or south of a billion dollars. How much will he spend of his own dime to win before he dies?

  16. #59
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    On my reading, Walt's statement about re-signing Choo is so vague as to be meaningless. It says next to nothing beyond "we'll try."
    It's meaningless in the sense that he has no way of knowing what Choo will decide. But in my opinion the use of "hopeful" and especially "confident" says a lot. My guess is that a) Castellini has signaled the payroll will be there, and/or b) Choo has signalled he's interested in staying.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  17. #60
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2014 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    It's meaningless in the sense that he has no way of knowing what Choo will decide. But in my opinion the use of "hopeful" and especially "confident" says a lot. My guess is that a) Castellini has signaled the payroll will be there, and/or b) Choo has signalled he's interested in staying.
    Agreed. And as far as A goes, that's my point in the argument above. No one should make concrete assumptions as to which CURRENT players we can or cannot afford next year, because no one really knows. My guess is if there is/was room to keep Choo, there is room to risk making Arroyo a qualifying offer and/or bringing in some other form of offensive help.
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