Would you make this hypothetical deal?

[UCBrownsfan]

Not a fan of this idea. My problem has to do with Arroyo and Leake. They have very similar pitching styles and Arroyo's age is getting high. I'd rather have the potential-ace material in Bailey to compliment Latos/Cueto. Especially since Cueto is injury-prone, I don't think the Reds can afford to ship off a SP.

I think we may over project Bailey due to K rates. My opinion is the difference between Profar and Cozart is greater than the difference between Bailey and Leake or Arroyo. Especially long term, but even in 2013.

For Texas the Bailey upgrades their staff by over 1 Win already.

Bailey Career : 727 IP, 4.38 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.0 WAR
Bailey Best Year: 208 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 2.5 WAR

Leake Career : 558 IP, 4.07 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.4 WAR (+2.5 career batter)
Leake Best Year : 167.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1.6 WAR

Arroyo Career : 2162 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 25.7 WAR
Best Year (last 3): 202 IP, 3.74 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.6 WAR

[hebroncougar]

I would do the trade in the offseason, especially if Homer balks at efforts to extend him.

I would not do the trade during this season.

In the offseason, the Reds may have to add a piece - perhaps Lutz, Paul (if he keeps this up), or some other OF prospect (not Hamilton or Winker). Texas is already short an OF and Nelson Cruz is a FA-to-be facing possible suspension.

This. I don't trust Cueto to stay healthy the rest of the season. I don't "think" Bailey will sign long-term here with his distaste for the ballpark. I do not have a problem dealing him in the offseason. You'd have to extend Arroyo, which I would do to the tune of 2/16 or so.

[muethibp]

If you traded Bailey to Texas for Profar, why would the Reds have to add ANYTHING to make the deal? I would think Texas would have to add something.

To me, Bailey is atleast a #2 starter. And he continues to get better and better. His best years are still ahead of him.

I don't like the idea of trading Bailey. But my gut tells me Bailey is going to test free agency and move on. My other instinct is that the Reds cannot afford to pay Cueto, Latos, and Bailey big contracts. So the one least likely to sign an extension should be considered in trade. Although I'd rather trade Cueto because his constant injuries concern me long term.

You discount the extreme value assigned by teams to cheap, young talent. For the trade to work for Texas, they have to sign Bailey, and that means $65 million over 5 years probably. Texas is going to wonder why they have to invest all that money and give up one of baseball's top prospects particularly (as Texas would surely point out), there is a decent possibility of being able to get Bailey as a free agent in a year for the same money without giving a player up at all.

[Vottomatic]

You discount the extreme value assigned by teams to cheap, young talent. For the trade to work for Texas, they have to sign Bailey, and that means $65 million over 5 years probably. Texas is going to wonder why they have to invest all that money and give up one of baseball's top prospects particularly (as Texas would surely point out), there is a decent possibility of being able to get Bailey as a free agent in a year for the same money without giving a player up at all.

They can afford it. They'll re-sign Bailey.

I'm not giving up Bailey for just Profar. I want more than that. Profar may be considered the #1 minor league prospect.......but that ranking may be wrong. Look at Puig. Look at a bunch of high ranked prospects that are having better years than Profar. Next time the rankings come out, he may be ranked 10th or something. And Profar isn't even in triple A yet.

Bailey is trending upward. I just went to www.baseball-reference.com. Bailey's numbers so far this season are already the best he's put up in the majors, and if I were a bettin' man, I believe he gets better as the season goes on..........see last season. His K/9, H/9, HR/9, WHIP, e.r.a. are all better right now than any of the prior 6 seasons in the majors.

Frankly, I wish we could sign Bailey and trade Cueto and his injury problems.

[wolfboy]

If I say yes or no, what do I win?

Either the love and adoration of the board, or the scorn and contempt of all. Choose carefully.

[Raisor]

Either the love and adoration of the board, or the scorn and contempt of all. Choose carefully.

I already have all that. I, therefore, vote "present"

[SpiritofStLouis]

Texas has steadfastly maintained that they don't want to trade Profar. Should they reconsider, they're going to want multiple players in return. Profar is a # 1 prospect at a premium position.

Bailey ain't gonna get it done.

[RedEye]

I'd rather deal Cingrani, although I understand the argument for trading Texas native Bailey. I'd definitely need more than Profar back, though. A LH for the pen and a high ceiling starter that's close to the majors would be in the deal for Bailey.

There is no way that Texas gives you more than Profar than Bailey. Actually, there's probably no way they give you Profar for Bailey. They might want Bailey and Cingrani for him -- he's that good.

[RedEye]

I'm not giving up Bailey for just Profar. I want more than that. Profar may be considered the #1 minor league prospect.......but that ranking may be wrong. Look at Puig. Look at a bunch of high ranked prospects that are having better years than Profar. Next time the rankings come out, he may be ranked 10th or something. And Profar isn't even in triple A yet.

No way is Puig ranked higher than Profar, even with the current hot spell he's had. Profar plays a premium position and projects to put up an .800+ OPS. That's far rarer than a powerful OF.

[WrongVerb]

There is no way that Texas gives you more than Profar than Bailey. Actually, there's probably no way they give you Profar for Bailey. They might want Bailey and Cingrani for him -- he's that good.

Sorry, I'm not trading a pitcher with ace potential for a prospect, even if he's the #1 prospect in baseball. It took 4 prospects to land Latos, so I'd look for a similar package. Taking into account that Profar IS a great prospect, the other parts of the package would be discounted accordingly.

[UCBrownsfan]

They can afford it. They'll re-sign Bailey.

I'm not giving up Bailey for just Profar. I want more than that. Profar may be considered the #1 minor league prospect.......but that ranking may be wrong. Look at Puig. Look at a bunch of high ranked prospects that are having better years than Profar. Next time the rankings come out, he may be ranked 10th or something. And Profar isn't even in triple A yet.

Bailey is trending upward. I just went to www.baseball-reference.com. Bailey's numbers so far this season are already the best he's put up in the majors, and if I were a bettin' man, I believe he gets better as the season goes on..........see last season. His K/9, H/9, HR/9, WHIP, e.r.a. are all better right now than any of the prior 6 seasons in the majors.

Frankly, I wish we could sign Bailey and trade Cueto and his injury problems.

Profar 20 years old - 2013 season
MLB Texas Ranger 18 Games 75 PA .712 OPS
AAA Round Rock 37 Games 166 PA .807 OPS

He seems major league ready to me, maybe could use a full AAA year, but his clock is going. Arb 2016, FA 2019.

[wolfboy]

I already have all that. I, therefore, vote "present"

My exact thought when I was typing it. You are the envy of heroes and villains alike.

[wolfboy]

Sorry, I'm not trading a pitcher with ace potential for a prospect, even if he's the #1 prospect in baseball. It took 4 prospects to land Latos, so I'd look for a similar package. Taking into account that Profar IS a great prospect, the other parts of the package would be discounted accordingly.

Latos was also younger and under team control for a longer period of time.

[UCBrownsfan]

I don't want two of Leake, Arroyo, and Cingrani in a playoff rotation. I want Cueto, Bailey, Latos, and Arroyo. First-third of the season WAR numbers aside, I don't think that should be particularly controversial.

Obviously playoffs matter, but looking at playoffs - right now we are in a one game playoff situation. That means our a bat could help more than worrying about the third and fourth starter.

And speaking of playoffs, Bailey this year has gone 15.1 IP against the Cardinals and Braves and given up 15 ER. He has done the worst of the group against good teams.

Bailey +.500 teams: 22.1 IP, 18 ER
Bailey lt 500 teams: 60.2 IP, 14 ER

Arroyo +.500 teams: 32 IP, 12 ER
Arroyo lt .500 teams: 54 IP, 21 ER

Leake +.500 teams: 24 IP, 12 ER
Leake lt .500 teams: 49.2 IP, 12 ER

Cingrani +.500 teams: 0 IP
Cingrani lt .500 teams: 40 IP, 14 ER

[PuffyPig]

Obviously playoffs matter, but looking at playoffs - right now we are in a one game playoff situation. That means our a bat could help more than worrying about the third and fourth starter.

And speaking of playoffs, Bailey this year has gone 15.1 IP against the Cardinals and Braves and given up 15 ER. He has done the worst of the group against good teams.

Bailey +.500 teams: 22.1 IP, 18 ER
Bailey lt 500 teams: 60.2 IP, 14 ER

Arroyo +.500 teams: 32 IP, 12 ER
Arroyo lt .500 teams: 54 IP, 21 ER

Leake +.500 teams: 24 IP, 12 ER
Leake lt .500 teams: 49.2 IP, 12 ER

Cingrani +.500 teams: 0 IP
Cingrani lt .500 teams: 40 IP, 14 ER

Speaking of the playoffs, did you see Bailey's performance last year vs. the Giants?

But it's all a small sample size, and look at th elarger sample size to truly judge.

To be it's based completely on our abilty to sign Bailey long term.

If we can't, we should look at maximizing our return on him. And Profar is a great place to start.