Would you make this hypothetical deal?

[Vottomatic]

Sorry, I'm not trading a pitcher with ace potential for a prospect, even if he's the #1 prospect in baseball. It took 4 prospects to land Latos, so I'd look for a similar package. Taking into account that Profar IS a great prospect, the other parts of the package would be discounted accordingly.

Other than all the hype, I can't see what Profar has done to warrant being the #1 pick.

Starting pitching is higher on my list than a SS. We already have an excellent glove at SS in Cozart. Hitting......meh, it could be better.

Texas would be stupid to pass on Bailey for Profar. Starting pitching is worth a ton more than "potential" #1 rated prospects. I've seen plenty of #1 rated busts or overhyped players. I'll take the known over the unknown.

In fact, I've talked myself out of it. I don't want Profar anymore.

[RedEye]

Sorry, I'm not trading a pitcher with ace potential for a prospect, even if he's the #1 prospect in baseball. It took 4 prospects to land Latos, so I'd look for a similar package. Taking into account that Profar IS a great prospect, the other parts of the package would be discounted accordingly.

Okay, but you don't run the Rangers FO either. I think their asking price would be a lot steeper, for Profar, that's all. I could be wrong. :-)

[RedEye]

Texas would be stupid to pass on Bailey for Profar. Starting pitching is worth a ton more than "potential" #1 rated prospects. I've seen plenty of #1 rated busts or overhyped players. I'll take the known over the unknown.

In fact, I've talked myself out of it. I don't want Profar anymore.

Bailey is looking good lately, but he's about to get really expensive. I think the Rangers could get a lot more for Profar than just him.

[Mitri]

Anyone who thinks 1.5 years of Bailey nets Profar is delusional. Bailey and Hamilton probably get it done.

With this in mind, I hang onto Bailey for the remainder of his contract, with the hope of extending him. No way this team gets back a piece nearly as valuable as Homer already is. And if Cueto gets healthy come playoff time, I like our front 3 starters over just about any other in the league.

[Vottomatic]

Anyone who thinks 1.5 years of Bailey nets Profar is delusional. Bailey and Hamilton probably get it done.

With this in mind, I hang onto Bailey for the remainder of his contract, with the hope of extending him. No way this team gets back a piece nearly as valuable as Homer already is. And if Cueto gets healthy come playoff time, I like our front 3 starters over just about any other in the league.

I can't wait until Profar plays in the majors, it rains and creates a lake on the tarp covering the field and I get to see him walk on water. That will be cool.

[RedEye]

I can't wait until Profar plays in the majors, it rains and creates a lake on the tarp covering the field and I get to see him walk on water. That will be cool.

Profar put up an .820 OPS in AA at the age of 19. So he's basically like a Jay Bruce type who also plays a slick SS. It's not just hype.

[Red Swagger]

I would do Bailey and Corcino

for

Profar
Robbie Ross
Tanner Scheppers

[RedEye]

I would do Bailey and Corcino

for

Profar
Robbie Ross
Tanner Scheppers

Rangers also do not make that deal. Check out this recent report on Profar:

A real future superstar in the making, it's hard to rate this kid too highly: he looks like nothing less than a switch-hitting Justin Upton, from the off-the-charts raw talent to the off-the-charts rawness. Just turned twenty, he's nonetheless ready to compete for a job now, and he should be scary-good in another year or two.

And another one (from FanGraphs):

For me, the conservative approach would be to label Jurickson Profar an above average regular with multiple all-star seasons. A more aggressive assessment would leave the Rangers shortstop a franchise player worthy of building an organization around. If not for Nationals phenom Bryce Harper, Jurickson Profar would rank as the best prospect I scouted this season.

I can't believe anyone would think they'd be willing to give up a future superstar plus two other pieces for 1.5 years of Homer Bailey and a regressing AAA pitcher.

[757690]

I can't wait until Profar plays in the majors, it rains and creates a lake on the tarp covering the field and I get to see him walk on water. That will be cool.

I understand the doubt that exists with all prospects. But that is figured into the equation when establishing a players trade value.

Over the history if MLB, we have seen how solid fielding SS's, who OPS 800+ in AA, at age 20 turn out. We have seen that most become regulars and many become stars. Sure some drizzle and never make it in the bigs, but the vast majority have had significant success in the majors.

So when establishing Profar'a trade value, you figure he's less valuable than an All-Star, and more valuable than a backup. He worth roughly a solid major league starter at any position. When you factor in that he has virtually no service time and will cheap for three years and controllable for three more years, he's worth around six years of a solid major league starter.

Bailey is a solid MLB starter, but he only gives you 1 1/2 years of team control. So, he's probably not going to get you Profar all by himself. I hope that made sense.

[[deleted]]

Sometimes the trade proposals (and the reactions to them) on this board really make me shake my head.

Go to any non-Reds forum or community, propose this deal, and watch it not just be shot down, but outright mocked.

The consensus #1 prospect in all of baseball for 1.5 years of a decent #2/good #3 SP? A guy that Texas could just sign after next season without giving up anyone? If you called the Rangers offering this trade, they'd laugh in your face - and some of you want them to throw in MORE?

I wouldn't be too surprised if Texas does indeed end up dealing Profar - they've got an IF jam, and could use him for OF help - but they'd be getting back someone like Oscar Taveras or Giancarlo Stanton, not Homer Bailey. I'm not even sure the Reds could get him if they wanted to - I imagine it'd take a package starting with Hamilton, Cingrani, and more.

[Vottomatic]

As for all the hype about Profar.......

These "can't miss" players say hi:
Paul Wilson - #1 pick overall in draft; Rated #2 prospect in baseball in 1996; Made it to the majors at age 23. The #2 rated "can't miss" prospect put up a 5-12 record with an e.r.a. of 5.38. His career interrupted after that due to injuries. But clearly his rookie season showed that the hype was a joke.

Adam Loewen - #4 pick in the 2002 draft; played 3 seasons in the majors garnering a 5.38 e.r.a.

Todd Van Poppel - first round "can't miss" draft pick. We all know the story.

Craig Hanson - first round pick of the Red Sox in 2005; Played 4 seasons in the majors garnering a career 6.34 e.r.a. What's interesting are these quotes from Baseball America:

"Hansen stamped himself as a potential premium pick last summer as an all-star closer in the Cape Cod League, where he went 1-1, 0.00 with 10 saves, striking out 41 and walking two in 22 innings. He has continued his domination this spring at St. John's, where he was 2-2, 1.41 with a school-record 14 saves to go with 77 strikeouts and 17 walks in 57 innings.

"He has electric stuff to match his numbers. He pounds the strike zone with a fastball that has been clocked consistently in the mid-90s and tops out at 97 mph. The velocity on his slider has been even more impressive, sitting at 85-86 mph with a high of 90. Though his fastball command wavers, he has an excellent approach to pitching and isn't afraid to go right at hitters. He should be even more effective against wood bats.

"Some teams have also talked about trying him as a starter because they see a pitcher with No. 1 stuff. He was used in that role in high school--when he wasn't drafted despite going 8-0, 0.00 with 119 strikeouts in 69 innings--and as a freshman at St. John's. But the sentiment is clearly for him to be a closer, and he was on a short list of four candidates by the Diamondbacks to be the No. 1 pick overall."

Gregg Jefferies - first round pick in draft, 2-time minor league player of the year. Career .765 OPS in the majors after tons of hype.

Ben McDonald - #1 overall pick, touted by scouts to be the next Roger Clemens, finished his major league career after 9 seasons with a career 3.91 e.r.a. and a record of 78-70. Made it to the majors at age 21.

Drew Henson - 3rd round pick; two-sport star; played in the Yankees minors for 5 seasons with some decent power numbers. Played a grand total of 8 games in the majors garnering 1 hit.

Ben Grieve - #2 pick in the draft; Rookie of the year in 1998 (age 21); Was out of baseball after 2005, retiring with a career .269 batting average and relegated to a backup outfielder his last 2 seasons for the Chicago Cubs.

Hee Seop Choi - highly rated South Korean prospect in the Cubs organization. Hit well and with power all through the minors. Hit 26 HR's, 97 rbi with a .919 OPS at age 23 at triple A, prompting a call-up to the majors in 2002. Was finished in the majors after the 2005 season, returning to South Korea having a career average of .240, and an OPS of .786 after 4 seasons.

Ricky Jordan - first round pick of the Phillies; made it to the majors at age 23 with a lot of hype. Never lived it up to it. Was out of baseball after 8 seasons with a career .732 OPS.

Ty Griffin - first round pick of the Cubs in 1988; #22 rated prospect in baseball in 1990; retired after 9 seasons in the minors in 1997, never making the big leagues.

Alex Gordon - #2 pick of the draft; major league debut at age 23; In his 7th season he has hit more than 20 HR's only once; never had more than 87 rbi in a season, and has a career OPS of .788. Not a bust. But not an elite player. Currently only has 6 HR's.

Shawn Abner - #1 pick overall in the 1984 draft; spent his career in the minors OPSing .761 and hitting .278.

Phillip Humber - #3 pick overall in the 2004 draft; spent 8 seasons in the majors garnering a 5.34 e.r.a.

Clint Everts - #5 pick in the 2002 draft; never made it to the majors; now 28 years old, he currently has an 8.04 e.r.a. with a 1.98 WHIP. Here's what Baseball America said about him:

"With his switch-hitting ability, plus speed and stellar defensive play, Everts might be the second-best shortstop in the nation after Virginia high schooler B.J. Upton.

"Yet he'll almost certainly be taken as a pitcher, and one scouting director with an early pick says Everts could be the best arm to come out of the draft.

"He can't match the quality of (teammate Scott) Kazmir's stuff, but Kazmir can't equal Everts' projectability or the ease with which he throws. Everts is just 17 and could get much stronger as he adds to his 6-foot-2, 170-pound frame. His curveball is the best among high school pitchers, and he has a 91-94 mph fastball and above-average changeup.

"Scouts dream about pitchers with his kind of quick arm action. 'He's the sleeper of the whole draft,' one scouting director said. 'He's going to make someone very happy.'"

Jeremy Sowers - #5 pick in the 2004 draft; progressed to triple A in one season in the minors; had a successful rookie campaign in the majors going 7-4 with a 3.57 e.r.a. The next 3 seasons would see him go 11-26 with a 5.63 e.r.a. Currently back in the minors. Here's what BA said about him:

"Sowers pounds the zone with four pitches: an accurate, active fastball he throws anywhere from 85-91 mph, a solid-average slider and curveball, and a changeup with good movement that he uses sparingly. His consistency and makeup impress scouts nearly as much as his stuff and command."

......and Chris Gruler, Bryan Bullington, Brandon Wood, Matt Bush, Roger Salkeld, Chris Lubanski, Chad Mottola, Steve Soderstrom, Kasey Kiker, Ariel Prieto, Kyle Sleeth, Tim Beckham, Josh Booty..........the list goes on and on and on of "can't miss" prospects.

[muethibp]

Anyone who thinks 1.5 years of Bailey nets Profar is delusional. Bailey and Hamilton probably get it done.

With this in mind, I hang onto Bailey for the remainder of his contract, with the hope of extending him. No way this team gets back a piece nearly as valuable as Homer already is. And if Cueto gets healthy come playoff time, I like our front 3 starters over just about any other in the league.

Bailey and Hamilton is the type of package that I would have had in mind when I earlier expressed that the Rangers wouldn't do the deal as proposed.

[757690]

As for all the hype about Profar.......

These "can't miss" players say hi:
Paul Wilson - #1 pick overall in draft; Rated #2 prospect in baseball in 1996; Made it to the majors at age 23. The #2 rated "can't miss" prospect put up a 5-12 record with an e.r.a. of 5.38. His career interrupted after that due to injuries. But clearly his rookie season showed that the hype was a joke.

Adam Loewen - #4 pick in the 2002 draft; played 3 seasons in the majors garnering a 5.38 e.r.a.

Todd Van Poppel - first round "can't miss" draft pick. We all know the story.

Craig Hanson - first round pick of the Red Sox in 2005; Played 4 seasons in the majors garnering a career 6.34 e.r.a. What's interesting are these quotes from Baseball America:

"Hansen stamped himself as a potential premium pick last summer as an all-star closer in the Cape Cod League, where he went 1-1, 0.00 with 10 saves, striking out 41 and walking two in 22 innings. He has continued his domination this spring at St. John's, where he was 2-2, 1.41 with a school-record 14 saves to go with 77 strikeouts and 17 walks in 57 innings.

"He has electric stuff to match his numbers. He pounds the strike zone with a fastball that has been clocked consistently in the mid-90s and tops out at 97 mph. The velocity on his slider has been even more impressive, sitting at 85-86 mph with a high of 90. Though his fastball command wavers, he has an excellent approach to pitching and isn't afraid to go right at hitters. He should be even more effective against wood bats.

"Some teams have also talked about trying him as a starter because they see a pitcher with No. 1 stuff. He was used in that role in high school--when he wasn't drafted despite going 8-0, 0.00 with 119 strikeouts in 69 innings--and as a freshman at St. John's. But the sentiment is clearly for him to be a closer, and he was on a short list of four candidates by the Diamondbacks to be the No. 1 pick overall."

Gregg Jefferies - first round pick in draft, 2-time minor league player of the year. Career .765 OPS in the majors after tons of hype.

Ben McDonald - #1 overall pick, touted by scouts to be the next Roger Clemens, finished his major league career after 9 seasons with a career 3.91 e.r.a. and a record of 78-70. Made it to the majors at age 21.

Drew Henson - 3rd round pick; two-sport star; played in the Yankees minors for 5 seasons with some decent power numbers. Played a grand total of 8 games in the majors garnering 1 hit.

Ben Grieve - #2 pick in the draft; Rookie of the year in 1998 (age 21); Was out of baseball after 2005, retiring with a career .269 batting average and relegated to a backup outfielder his last 2 seasons for the Chicago Cubs.

Hee Seop Choi - highly rated South Korean prospect in the Cubs organization. Hit well and with power all through the minors. Hit 26 HR's, 97 rbi with a .919 OPS at age 23 at triple A, prompting a call-up to the majors in 2002. Was finished in the majors after the 2005 season, returning to South Korea having a career average of .240, and an OPS of .786 after 4 seasons.

Ricky Jordan - first round pick of the Phillies; made it to the majors at age 23 with a lot of hype. Never lived it up to it. Was out of baseball after 8 seasons with a career .732 OPS.

Ty Griffin - first round pick of the Cubs in 1988; #22 rated prospect in baseball in 1990; retired after 9 seasons in the minors in 1997, never making the big leagues.

Alex Gordon - #2 pick of the draft; major league debut at age 23; In his 7th season he has hit more than 20 HR's only once; never had more than 87 rbi in a season, and has a career OPS of .788. Not a bust. But not an elite player. Currently only has 6 HR's.

Shawn Abner - #1 pick overall in the 1984 draft; spent his career in the minors OPSing .761 and hitting .278.

Phillip Humber - #3 pick overall in the 2004 draft; spent 8 seasons in the majors garnering a 5.34 e.r.a.

Clint Everts - #5 pick in the 2002 draft; never made it to the majors; now 28 years old, he currently has an 8.04 e.r.a. with a 1.98 WHIP. Here's what Baseball America said about him:

"With his switch-hitting ability, plus speed and stellar defensive play, Everts might be the second-best shortstop in the nation after Virginia high schooler B.J. Upton.

"Yet he'll almost certainly be taken as a pitcher, and one scouting director with an early pick says Everts could be the best arm to come out of the draft.

"He can't match the quality of (teammate Scott) Kazmir's stuff, but Kazmir can't equal Everts' projectability or the ease with which he throws. Everts is just 17 and could get much stronger as he adds to his 6-foot-2, 170-pound frame. His curveball is the best among high school pitchers, and he has a 91-94 mph fastball and above-average changeup.

"Scouts dream about pitchers with his kind of quick arm action. 'He's the sleeper of the whole draft,' one scouting director said. 'He's going to make someone very happy.'"

Jeremy Sowers - #5 pick in the 2004 draft; progressed to triple A in one season in the minors; had a successful rookie campaign in the majors going 7-4 with a 3.57 e.r.a. The next 3 seasons would see him go 11-26 with a 5.63 e.r.a. Currently back in the minors. Here's what BA said about him:

"Sowers pounds the zone with four pitches: an accurate, active fastball he throws anywhere from 85-91 mph, a solid-average slider and curveball, and a changeup with good movement that he uses sparingly. His consistency and makeup impress scouts nearly as much as his stuff and command."

......and Chris Gruler, Bryan Bullington, Brandon Wood, Matt Bush, Roger Salkeld, Chris Lubanski, Chad Mottola, Steve Soderstrom, Kasey Kiker, Ariel Prieto, Kyle Sleeth, Tim Beckham, Josh Booty..........the list goes on and on and on of "can't miss" prospects.

And none of those players accomplished what Profar so far has accomplished in the minors.

Again, not all prospects become All-Stars, but we know the percentage of those that do, and that is how a prospect's trade value is calculated.

[Vottomatic]

And none of those players accomplished what Profar so far has accomplished in the minors.

Again, not all prospects become All-Stars, but we know the percentage of those that do, and that is how a prospect's trade value is calculated.

Actually, incorrect. Many of them had better numbers than Profar.

[jojo]

If you traded Bailey to Texas for Profar, why would the Reds have to add ANYTHING to make the deal? I would think Texas would have to add something.

To me, Bailey is atleast a #2 starter. And he continues to get better and better. His best years are still ahead of him.

I don't like the idea of trading Bailey. But my gut tells me Bailey is going to test free agency and move on. My other instinct is that the Reds cannot afford to pay Cueto, Latos, and Bailey big contracts. So the one least likely to sign an extension should be considered in trade. Although I'd rather trade Cueto because his constant injuries concern me long term.

I don't think Texas would do that deal.