Would you make this hypothetical deal?

[UCBrownsfan]

Sometimes the trade proposals (and the reactions to them) on this board really make me shake my head.

Go to any non-Reds forum or community, propose this deal, and watch it not just be shot down, but outright mocked.

The consensus #1 prospect in all of baseball for 1.5 years of a decent #2/good #3 SP? A guy that Texas could just sign after next season without giving up anyone? If you called the Rangers offering this trade, they'd laugh in your face - and some of you want them to throw in MORE?

I wouldn't be too surprised if Texas does indeed end up dealing Profar - they've got an IF jam, and could use him for OF help - but they'd be getting back someone like Oscar Taveras or Giancarlo Stanton, not Homer Bailey. I'm not even sure the Reds could get him if they wanted to - I imagine it'd take a package starting with Hamilton, Cingrani, and more.

It wasn't an exact proposal, just the main cog for the main cog. And profar is tough to value, as there just isn't much history in top 10 prospects being dealt.

[RedEye]

If you can deal from a position of strength and depth...sure. But in order to get him, we'd have to empty the farm OR deal away a top starter. No chance I'm doing either. Is he an upgrade, most likely. Is he a need...no.

All depends on the players involved, of course. Profar would be an immediate upgrade at short, and he can hit at the top of the lineup most likely. He's basically a Barry Larkin type player (or projects to be).

I personally would be fine dealing Bailey, Hamilton and another piece of some value for this guy (maybe even Cingrani depending on whether the Reds got another player with him). Profar immediately upgrades the roster in very real ways. He's controllable for six more years, adds another valuable piece to the core of Votto-Bruce-Phillips, and helps Dusty full out a good lineup card every day (here's a SS who actually should bat second!)

[_Sir_Charles_]

All depends on the players involved, of course. Profar would be an immediate upgrade at short, and he can hit at the top of the lineup most likely. He's basically a Barry Larkin type player (or projects to be).

I personally would be fine dealing Bailey, Hamilton and another piece of some value for this guy (maybe even Cingrani depending on whether the Reds got another player with him). Profar immediately upgrades the roster in very real ways. He's controllable for six more years, adds another valuable piece to the core of Votto-Bruce-Phillips, and helps Dusty full out a good lineup card every day (here's a SS who actually should bat second!)

Sorry. No. I like prospects, probably more than most, but people keep overlooking the fact that they're still prospects. They haven't proven to amount to anything yet. To say he a Barry Larkin type player or even projects to be is absolutely ludicrous. It's blatantly unfair to a kid like Jurickson Profar. He has yet to have 100 ab's in the majors...but he looks like he'll put up a HALL OF FAME career?!? Profar is the kind of talent that you build a team around...not one you add to a playoff caliber team by dismantling it's strongest asset, the rotation. But since I don't think I'll convince you with words...how about this.

Right now, the season you seem most concerned with, right now, Profar is hitting .269/.324/.388/.712. Cozart is hitting .244/.272/.382/.654. Do you really think 58 points of OPS is worth sending Homer Bailey packing? I don't. And not only that, but you also want to pack away our future too by sending Hamilton and maybe even Cingrani?!? Good lord. I just don't get that thinking at all.

I guess people want to point towards his minor league pedigree, right? Well, that pedigree amounts to 160 ab's in AAA of a .800 ops. That's nice. But he's not a one year wonder either. He also ops'ed .800 in AA and A as well (2 years, each over 400 ab's). Also very nice. Hmmm...I wonder what Cozart did? 350 ab's...825 ops. Previous year, 550 ab's with a .726 ops. I get it that Profar is younger, considerably so, but all I see is a promising young SS with a decent bat. Not someone worth risking a championship season for. And certainly not enough of an upgrade to make that much of a difference. Maybe he proves me wrong, I wish him luck. But we've spent years watching Homer grow and develop...no chance I want to see him blossom into the star he looks on the verge of becoming on some other team in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle with 20 year old kid still wet behind the ears. Probably a bit strong...but still how I feel.

[bubbachunk]

And none of those players accomplished what Profar so far has accomplished in the minors.

Again, not all prospects become All-Stars, but we know the percentage of those that do, and that is how a prospect's trade value is calculated.

Exactly, those guys were just draft hype. They never did anything after being drafted in the same breathe as what Profar has done

[Jamz]

I would love to have Profar on this team. The reality is that top prospects like Profar rarely get traded, and when they do it's for something big. Would I do Hamilton and Bailey for Profar? Probably. I'd feel bad because I like Cozart and I think he's a good guy, but I think he's a replaceable SS (hindsight is 20/20...but it sure would have been nice to keep Gregorius).

That said a move is not necessary right now. Could we upgrade at some places? Yeah. I'd like to see an upgrade at SS or LF...but realistically not that much is available.

[RedEye]

Sorry. No. I like prospects, probably more than most, but people keep overlooking the fact that they're still prospects. They haven't proven to amount to anything yet. To say he a Barry Larkin type player or even projects to be is absolutely ludicrous. It's blatantly unfair to a kid like Jurickson Profar. He has yet to have 100 ab's in the majors...but he looks like he'll put up a HALL OF FAME career?!?

To be fair, I said "Barry Larkin type". All I meant was that he projects to be a plus bat and a plus fielder -- an all-around player who helps you in all facets of the game.

Profar is the kind of talent that you build a team around...not one you add to a playoff caliber team by dismantling it's strongest asset, the rotation. But since I don't think I'll convince you with words...how about this.

I don't think you are ever permanently in playoff mode or building mode. If Profar were still in A ball and not supposed to arrive for three years, yeah, you've got a point. But the guy is starting for the Rangers right now and playing great. He slots right into the lineup next to Phillips and is an immediate upgrade over anything the Reds have had at short since Larkin retired. That's too valuable an asset to pass up.

Right now, the season you seem most concerned with, right now, Profar is hitting .269/.324/.388/.712. Cozart is hitting .244/.272/.382/.654. Do you really think 58 points of OPS is worth sending Homer Bailey packing?

Sample sizes are too small here to mean anything but yes, I do. The potential return is far greater than 1.5 years of Homer Bailey. And I like Homer Bailey. But Jurickson Profar is the top prospect in the game for a reason. It's not like there are just a bunch of nerds on message boards promoting his game. There are scouts, nerds, non-nerds, and players alike who think this kid will be great. That's not a guarantee, but it's a lot of weighty opinion to just disregard.

I don't. And not only that, but you also want to pack away our future too by sending Hamilton and maybe even Cingrani?!? Good lord. I just don't get that thinking at all.

I did say if Cingrani were included there would have to be someone else coming back in the deal. I'd have to hear more. But Bailey and Hamilton? I'd send them out tomorrow. Profar is both the top-of-the-order bat and the middle infielder this team desperately needs.

I guess people want to point towards his minor league pedigree, right? Well, that pedigree amounts to 160 ab's in AAA of a .800 ops. That's nice. But he's not a one year wonder either. He also ops'ed .800 in AA and A as well (2 years, each over 400 ab's). Also very nice. Hmmm...I wonder what Cozart did? 350 ab's...825 ops. Previous year, 550 ab's with a .726 ops. I get it that Profar is younger, considerably so, but all I see is a promising young SS with a decent bat.

Cozart was way older than Profar when he did that stuff. He'd reached his peak of development, while Profar is still on the up. Profar posted an .800 OPS in AAA at the age of 19. He's starting on a major league team at the age of 20.

Not someone worth risking a championship season for. And certainly not enough of an upgrade to make that much of a difference. Maybe he proves me wrong, I wish him luck.

I think he actually helps the Reds chances this year, too. He provides the speedy baseclogging hitter, along with Choo, that some of us were hoping that Hamilton could be sooner rather than later. The Reds would still probably have Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Leake and Cingrani (depending) to fill out the rotation.

But we've spent years watching Homer grow and develop...no chance I want to see him blossom into the star he looks on the verge of becoming on some other team in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle with 20 year old kid still wet behind the ears. Probably a bit strong...but still how I feel.

I think that happens in 1.5 years anyway. Of course, if Walt already knows Homer is likely to sign a LTC in the next 18 months, then it is a different story. But I would imagine that if he got offered a Profar for Bailey trade tomorrow, he'd have to consider it seriously. He'd be silly not to, frankly.

[UCBrownsfan]

I guess people want to point towards his minor league pedigree, right? Well, that pedigree amounts to 160 ab's in AAA of a .800 ops. That's nice. But he's not a one year wonder either. He also ops'ed .800 in AA and A as well (2 years, each over 400 ab's). Also very nice. Hmmm...I wonder what Cozart did? 350 ab's...825 ops. Previous year, 550 ab's with a .726 ops. I get it that Profar is younger, considerably so, but all I see is a promising young SS with a decent bat.

I think the big difference besides the youth of each level is 100 points of OPS at each level.

He reached AAA 4 years younger than Cozart with no repeats and still has a career minor league OPS 63 points higher.

Then you throw in he's a switch hitter with 180 BB and 212 k's in 1532 PA's in the minors.

Cozart had only 161 BB and 358 k's in 2166 PA's

[_Sir_Charles_]

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's not any good. But people here are acting like he's tearing it up in the bigs. He's not. He's average at best right now. He'd be a minimal improvement at best right now. In the future...who knows. But dealing away the main reason we're winning right now (starting pitching) is kinda nuts for a "what if" or a "slight" improvement in one area but a negative net loss overall.

I think people are assuming that Cingrani steps right in and replaces Homer's production without realizing the fact that he's new to the league and they haven't got a book on the kid yet. The second time through the league will probably have MUCH different results. I'm not ready to say either Tony OR Profar have what it takes. Homer though...DOES.

[lidspinner]

Here is what I am afraid of....Homer is not a fan of GABP, we know this to be a fact.....Homer is also a native of Texas and loves the area of Texas. I would be afraid of Homer landing in the Rangers lap for free in 2 years from now......

I dont see any situation where Homer does not test the market in 2015, he will see whats out there and see what he is worth....the kid is not a kid anymore, he is maturing into a true bred pitcher who can really help out a team. I would hate to think we passed on Profar now when all we might get in the future is a comp pick....

its just a thought and worse case scenario type situation I am looking at. I also thought Joey Votto was a lock for free agency and almost a sure thing to go elsewhere so my opinion is really not all that great.

I am not 100% sold on profar being anything more than a prospect....but he sure would look good in GABP playing SS with BP. Then again, for as much crap as I give Cozart at the plate, kid can flat out play SS with the best of them and he makes a ton of hard plays look easy....not to mention his cannon for an arm and accuracy like a scoped shotgun. you hate to give up on a defensive guy like that if unless your getting gold in return.

Its alot to think about and if I am Walt and that trade is an option I have....I am not taking it lightly, there is a ton to think about and I dont envy him.

[_Sir_Charles_]

The comments that Homer made about GABP and him not liking it there were 2 years ago. In that time he's made great strides towards having much more success there. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if his opinion has changed regarding GABP. He also seems to really like his teammates and his coaches. I don't think he'd object to playing closer to home, but I also don't think it's the slam-dunk decision many of us thought a few years ago.

[muethibp]

The comments that Homer made about GABP and him not liking it there were 2 years ago. In that time he's made great strides towards having much more success there. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if his opinion has changed regarding GABP. He also seems to really like his teammates and his coaches. I don't think he'd object to playing closer to home, but I also don't think it's the slam-dunk decision many of us thought a few years ago.

And while it's obviously a small sample size, his 2013 home/away splits suggest that leaving GABP shouldn't be a high priority.

Split W L ERA GS IP H ER HR SO WHIP
Home 2 0 2.61 6 38.0 27 11 0 46 1.079
Away 2 4 4.20 7 45.0 45 21 4 37 1.178



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/13/2013.

[UCBrownsfan]

And while it's obviously a small sample size, his 2013 home/away splits suggest that leaving GABP shouldn't be a high priority.

Split W L ERA GS IP H ER HR SO WHIP
Home 2 0 2.61 6 38.0 27 11 0 46 1.079
Away 2 4 4.20 7 45.0 45 21 4 37 1.178



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/13/2013.

I don't think that shows much of a preference this year, as his away games were also most of his 500+ games

His 3 games at St Louis and Cleveland he went 15 IP, and gave up 18 ER.

[Raisor]

Hypothetically, if we all came to a total agreement on this hypothetical trade would I have to wear pants to the meeting? Because that doesn't work for me

[_Sir_Charles_]

Hypothetical pants should be fine. I'm pretty sure Sears sells them.

[wolfboy]

Hypothetical pants should be fine. I'm pretty sure Sears sells them.

Ahh, but do they have them in my size???