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Thread: The Value of Not Doing Stupid Things

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    The Value of Not Doing Stupid Things

    This is really an interesting take on the piratical value of sabermetrics.

    http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2013/06...sier-than.html

    via: TangoTiger & Fangraphs

    Fangraphs gives a familiar example:
    Our forecasts aren’t so great that we can tell you exactly which free agent you should spend a lot of money on; our forecasts are good enough that we can tell you that Brandon League is not that free agent. Hitting Joey Votto second might be the statistically right thing for the Reds to do, but it matters less that Dusty Baker should hit Joey Votto second and matters a lot more than he shouldn’t hit Zack Cozart there. We can show, with a lot of evidence, that not hitting Cozart second would help the Reds a lot. Hitting Votto there, instead of some other non-Cozart hitter, would only help them a little bit more.

    The value of conclusions that have come from statistical analysis seem to lie much more on the side of warnings rather than suggestions.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-14-2013 at 11:41 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  2. Likes:

    dougdirt (06-14-2013), RedEye (06-14-2013)

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  4. #2
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: The Value of Not Doing Stupid Things

    Pirates really value SABERmetrics.

    ARRRR!

    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"


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