The wild card is a one-game crap shoot. So it becomes pretty important to win the division.
Therefore -- I sense more urgency this year than usual. The Reds may have to win a lot of games to be in the playoffs.
So -- I don't think there's a lot of time to wait out sample sizes this particular year. I think we need to go with the hot hand. Right now, Cingrani has shown (through his starting performances) that he is effective. I would go with him now.
Lecure, the opposite. Not a hot hand. I'd be cautious.
Simon -- hot hand. Partch -- maybe a hot hand, he was at AAA.
Hoover -- jury out, but worth trying. Parra -- handle with caution.