Cueto up, Cingrani stays for now

[REDREAD]

Guys who started in the bullpen before salaries exploded doesn't do much for me. It wasn't harmful to a team to start a young guy in the bullpen for a long time in both the sense of wasting MLB roster time (sooner to free agency) or keeping salaries lower.

If Cingrani helps the team to win this year (even if it's just securing a wild card),
I really could care less about the financial and free agent ramifications of it down the road. Another point to consider.. Maybe when Cingrani becomes FA eligible, he has found memories of coming out of the pen in 2013, and that makes him want to stay. He's not stupid. He knows he is one of the top 12 pitchers in the organization right now.

IMO, there's no doubt that right now that Cingrani in the pen makes the Reds a better team. When the bullpen gets healthy, the cost-benefit is debatable, but right now, it's a no brainer, IMO.

[Tom Servo]

Talent wins in this game, hoarding it at certain levels in hope of building a dynasty is also a game of craps, you want to play that way I get it, but I don't believe in 5 year plans myself.

GM Dayton Moore in Kansas City is closing in on year 8 of his 5 year plan.

[dougdirt]

If Cingrani helps the team to win this year (even if it's just securing a wild card),
I really could care less about the financial and free agent ramifications of it down the road. Another point to consider.. Maybe when Cingrani becomes FA eligible, he has found memories of coming out of the pen in 2013, and that makes him want to stay. He's not stupid. He knows he is one of the top 12 pitchers in the organization right now.

IMO, there's no doubt that right now that Cingrani in the pen makes the Reds a better team. When the bullpen gets healthy, the cost-benefit is debatable, but right now, it's a no brainer, IMO.

It clearly isn't a no-brainer or this thread would have one or three posts in it.

[RedEye]

IMO, there's no doubt that right now that Cingrani in the pen makes the Reds a better team. When the bullpen gets healthy, the cost-benefit is debatable, but right now, it's a no brainer, IMO.

The Reds do have limited other options for the spot -- that much is clear. It sort of confounds me, though, that after pitching all of 6 innings as a reliever, Cingrani is crowned the savior of the bullpen.

To me, this kid is still skating on thin ice with a rather limited repertoire. His fastball looks effective in both roles, obviously -- but his other offerings remain underdeveloped. That's obvious even to me as I watch on my television, so I would imagine that once other teams get enough video, they will be able to distinguish Cingrani's different release points and start to hit him much better. If and when that happens, I wonder whether we'll still be so happy that the Reds turned to him as a RP while he could have been in AAA working on the stuff he needs to be successful in whatever role he has going forward.

[NebraskaRed]

[QUOTE=RedEye;2887074]The Reds do have limited other options for the spot -- that much is clear. It sort of confounds me, though, that after pitching all of 6 innings as a reliever, Cingrani is crowned the savior of the bullpen.[QUOTE]

For a second I thought, "Wow, did I miss a few games this week where Cingrani came in as a reliever??"

Then I realized you were including his appearances from last season

[_Sir_Charles_]

Talent wins in this game, hoarding it at certain levels in hope of building a dynasty is also a game of craps, you want to play that way I get it, but I don't believe in 5 year plans myself.

Not quite what I mean. I'm talking about looking at each player with long term goals in mind. Yes, Cingrani helps us here now. Him being in the pen all season long may help us all season long, maybe. But if it ends up turning him into a reliever instead of a starter? That hurts us over the long run IMO.

Let me put it this way, I don't want to see us trade away cheap inexpensive talent in the minors for a quick fix for this season only. Because while it MAY help us this season, it really hurts us down the road. Just focus on getting to the playoffs. This team, as it currently is even without Cingrani, is good enough to get into the playoffs. Once there it's a crapshoot.

It's not about hoarding talent in the minors, it's keeping guys on a plan and letting them develop properly without scrapping that plan on a whim (or an injury). I'm not really against having Tony up here (I was at first, but I've come around a bit)...but I AM against him getting used as a reliever in a traditional manner. Lots of short outings. That's how he'll get hurt. I trust Dusty and Walt and I'm pretty confident that they WON'T work him that way...but the concern is still there.

[Norm Chortleton]

History remembers the success and not the failure. I wonder if Neftali Feliz will ever make a list like this 20 years from now. Probably not, since he didn't survive the shuttling back and forth between RP and SP.

Feliz was one of at least 40 players listed on 40-man rosters who had Tommy John surgery in 2012. Dr. Redeye, if your diagnosis is that Feliz's injury is, in fact, do to moving back and forth between the pen and the rotation, to what to you attribute the injuries of the others?

Isn't it more likely that throwing a baseball is an unnatural act and that any pitcher who does it for any length of time -- long or short -- is likely to suffer arm injury/injuries?

[RedEye]

Feliz was one of at least 40 players listed on 40-man rosters who had Tommy John surgery in 2012. Dr. Redeye, if your diagnosis is that Feliz's injury is, in fact, do to moving back and forth between the pen and the rotation, to what to you attribute the injuries of the others?

Isn't it more likely that throwing a baseball is an unnatural act and that any pitcher who does it for any length of time -- long or short -- is likely to suffer arm injury/injuries?

Even if I were an actual medical doctor, I wouldn't be able to attribute the injury to a specific role.

You are missing my point though. I brought up Feliz as a counter-example to all of the folks who listed off people like Kris Medlen as positive examples of what Cingrani is being asked to do. IMO, the fact that some guys have done it in the past doesn't mean that it is always a good idea. Other factors -- like where a pitcher is in his development -- should also be taken into account on a case-by-case basis.

In Cingrani's case, as I've argued, there is some evidence that moving to the 'pen will actually distract him from what his long-term goal should be: developing a secondary set of pitches to make him an even more effective starting pitcher.

[RedEye]

GM Dayton Moore in Kansas City is closing in on year 8 of his 5 year plan.

GM Dayton Moore of Kansas City has also not so much as sniffed the playoffs in his entire time at the helm of the franchise.

Apples and oranges to compare KC's situation to the current one in Cincinnati, where a baseline of competitive baseball has now been attained and the GM's current question has to do with allocating his resources to 1) go for it all now, 2) prolong the current window or 3) hopefully, both.

[westofyou]

What could happen = Good

YEAR TEAM         AGE W   L   PCT   G    GS  CG  SV  GF  IP     H    R    ER   BB   SO    ERA  RSAA
2000 XXXXX        21   2   3  .400   30   5   0   0   9   86    102   64   62   54   64   6.49  -11 
2001 XXXXX        22   1   0 1.000   15   4   0   0   5   43.2   50   25   23   16   28   4.74   -1 
2002 XXXXX        23   8   6  .571   27  14   0   1   2  108.1   84   41   36   49  137   2.99   17 
2003 XXXXX        24  12   3  .800   45  18   0   0   7  158.1  127   56   54   47  169   3.07   27 
2004 XXXXX        25  20   6  .769   34  34   1   0   0  228    156   70   66   54  265   2.61   54 
2005 XXXXX        26  16   7  .696   33  33   3   0   0  231.2  180   77   74   45  238   2.87   39 
2006 XXXXX        27  19   6  .760   34  34   1   0   0  233.2  186   79   72   47  245   2.77   44 




What could happen = bad 


YEAR TEAM         AGE W   L   PCT   G    GS  CG  SV  GF  IP     H    R    ER   BB   SO    ERA  RSAA
2001 XXXXX        23   3   2  .600   13   7   0   0   3   44.1   44   26   24   20   26   4.87   -2 
2002 XXXXX        24   5   4  .556   43  12   0   1  13  106.2  113   56   41   30  101   3.46   11 
2003 XXXXX        25   6   5  .545   19  14   0   1   2   79     82   55   48   34   63   5.47   -6 
2004 XXXXX        26   4  15  .211   27  27   0   0   0  142    171  111  105   63  117   6.65  -35 
2005 XXXXX        27   8  12  .400   36  25   0   0   1  162.2  170  100   89   60  128   4.92  -11 
2006 XXXXX        28   6   6  .500   25  25   0   0   0  130    136   89   77   63   88   5.33  -10 
2007 XXXXX        29   5   8  .385   40  10   0   0   6   76    109   71   65   27   53   7.70  -29

Nothing is guaranteed in life.

[RedEye]

Nothing is guaranteed in life.

Very true. Decisions like this are tough. That's why it is important to consider all sides of the issue on an internet message board.

[REDREAD]

The Reds do have limited other options for the spot -- that much is clear. It sort of confounds me, though, that after pitching all of 6 innings as a reliever, Cingrani is crowned the savior of the bullpen.

To me, this kid is still skating on thin ice with a rather limited repertoire. His fastball looks effective in both roles, obviously -- but his other offerings remain underdeveloped. That's obvious even to me as I watch on my television, so I would imagine that once other teams get enough video, they will be able to distinguish Cingrani's different release points and start to hit him much better. If and when that happens, I wonder whether we'll still be so happy that the Reds turned to him as a RP while he could have been in AAA working on the stuff he needs to be successful in whatever role he has going forward.

He has succeeded in some innings as a ML starter too.
Plus, his record of success in the minors is very impressive.
IMO, we are going on more than 6 innings.
I think he's got the talent to succeed as a reliever. It's not guaranteed, but a higher probably of success than the other options in the minors now.

Now I agree, if he's up here long enough, he will likely go through a rough period, much like Broxton, Chapman, LeCure, and Hoover have gone through (and Marshall last year).. very few relievers make it through an entire season without a rough period.

[REDREAD]

It clearly isn't a no-brainer or this thread would have one or three posts in it.

ok, maybe it's not a no brainer.
If Cingrani is sent to AAA to start, who takes his spot in the pen?
Looks like either Zach Duke, Logan, or Arrendondo.. Cingrani seems a much better option.

[Brutus]

GM Dayton Moore of Kansas City has also not so much as sniffed the playoffs in his entire time at the helm of the franchise.

Apples and oranges to compare KC's situation to the current one in Cincinnati, where a baseline of competitive baseball has now been attained and the GM's current question has to do with allocating his resources to 1) go for it all now, 2) prolong the current window or 3) hopefully, both.

Which is even more reason to trust the Reds' current method of doing things rather than what teams like Kansas City would do.

[REDREAD]

Let me put it this way, I don't want to see us trade away cheap inexpensive talent in the minors for a quick fix for this season only. Because while it MAY help us this season, it really hurts us down the road. Just focus on getting to the playoffs. This team, as it currently is even without Cingrani, is good enough to get into the playoffs. Once there it's a crapshoot.

But correlation studies have concluded, that once you get to the playoffs, the biggest factors are bullpen and defense. Having Cingrani in the pen for the playoffs is a must, IMO. It reduces the crapshoot factor (gives the Reds a better chance of winning).

Note, I realize correlation is not the same as proof.