Would you trade Bailey?

[Trajinous]

The Reds have been developing Bailey for 6 major league seasons and now that's he seems to have "turned a corner" people want him traded? I don't get it. He's a truly home-grown talent that has that "throws harder as the game goes on" ability. Cingrani and Leake don't have that. Killer line-ups don't win games (last year's Brewer's were 3rd in runs, finished 14 games back), pitching does.

So why weaken our best chance at a championship? Our offense is ranked 8th in Runs Scored, our offense is fine.

[_Sir_Charles_]

EXACTLY how I feel.

[RedEye]

So why weaken our best chance at a championship? Our offense is ranked 8th in Runs Scored, our offense is fine.

Because when you have a chance to acquire a cheap cornerstone young talent, sometimes you choose the long view over the short one. I'd rather spread my chips on multiple championship chances than load them all onto one opportunity. Acquiring a Profar or a Stanton does just that, whereas keeping Bailey offers a shorter window.

But don't get me wrong -- me saying I'd trade Bailey for Profar or Stanton is basically the equivalent of saying "probably not" because neither deal is very likely to happen.

[Trajinous]

I understand this is all hypothetical but even if mlbtraderumors.com was reporting it as "in the talks". I would want the Reds to keep Bailey.

It's funny how everyone has turned so quickly on Leake. He was the whipping boy on these boards last year. Now that he's on a good run, opinions have reversed and think we can now afford to deal a player. This would make sense if we lose a offensive player like Choo/Bruce/Votto to injury to boost offense. Ludwick is coming back in a month or so and could be that offensive boost to bump us to a Top 5 offense. Cueto is injury-prone and Cingrani's sample size is too small.

[RedEye]

This. But only after the season. Makes no sense to do this before then. Then move Cingrani into the rotation and sign Arroyo to a 2-year $15M deal so he can retire a Red. Or move Chapman to the rotation if Arroyo seeks more elsewhere.

Otherwise keep Bailey and/or try to extend him.

Hmmm. Not sure about the Arroyo extension (whether the Reds or he would do it, I mean).

Also... if another team is going to trade a top-ranked young player for a principle return of David "Homer" Bailey, they are going to want him for more than one year -- at least 1.5. This is not the type of deal the Reds are just going to be able to dictate out of convenience (even though I agree with the ideal timing you propose)..

[RedEye]

I understand this is all hypothetical but even if mlbtraderumors.com was reporting it as "in the talks". I would want the Reds to keep Bailey.

It's funny how everyone has turned so quickly on Leake. He was the whipping boy on these boards last year. Now that he's on a good run, opinions have reversed and think we can now afford to deal a player. This would make sense if we lose a offensive player like Choo/Bruce/Votto to injury to boost offense. Ludwick is coming back in a month or so and could be that offensive boost to bump us to a Top 5 offense. Cueto is injury-prone and Cingrani's sample size is too small.

Ludwick himself said he's shooting for mid-August. So I don't expect him back in a month or so.

[thatcoolguy_22]

Homer Bailey Arrives

The splitter has been a decent strikeout pitch for Bailey in the past, but it’s become an elite weapon for him in 2013. Bailey’s whiff rate with the pitch has jumped from 15.77% to 21.72%. Combine that with the fact that he’s throwing it more often, his usage has jumped from 9.30% to 14.52%, and that explains some of the jump in strikeout rate.

[reds44]

The Reds have been developing Bailey for 6 major league seasons and now that's he seems to have "turned a corner" people want him traded? I don't get it. He's a truly home-grown talent that has that "throws harder as the game goes on" ability. Cingrani and Leake don't have that. Killer line-ups don't win games (last year's Brewer's were 3rd in runs, finished 14 games back), pitching does.

So why weaken our best chance at a championship? Our offense is ranked 8th in Runs Scored, our offense is fine.

Because you're not going to be able to keep all these guys. Like I said, I would wait until the offseason or the deadline next year to do it, but it makes sense.

[Trajinous]

Because you're not going to be able to keep all these guys. Like I said, I would wait until the offseason or the deadline next year to do it, but it makes sense.

I agree with you here. I'm in the "it's not broke" mindset right now. The Reds are set to make a playoff run, barring injuries, we don't need to make any drastic moves.

[kaldaniels]

I disagree with the logic in remarks such as "we've developed Homer for so long so we should stick with him".

Forget the past, only concern yourselves with the future.

That said I hope we find a way to keep him, he's a good pitcher, that's what matters.

[Vottomatic]

Too many unknowns and not likely's.

1. Nobody but Homer knows if he is going to pursue free agency or not, no matter what. If they answer is yes, and the Reds have to get into a free agency bidding war, more than likely Homer will be gone. Then hindsight will be 20/20 and many will wish we traded him and got something decent in return. If they offer him the one year qualifying offer of $13M and he declines, they do get draft pick compensation.

2. It's not likely the Reds could get Stanton because the Marlins are cheap and will be looking for stud players under control for awhile and not a quality pitcher headed for one more year of arbitration and then free agency. We don't know this for certain, but with Loria's track record, it's what you'd assume.

3. Why do something now during the season? I'd wait until after the season. I wouldn't rush to trade Homer, but I'd make it known he is available for the right price. In fact, even Votto is available for the right price, how high that would have to be.

If the Reds could extend Homer and buy out some of his free agency years, that would be my first choice. But he is so close to it now, I doubt he'd consider it.

[CrackerJack]

The Reds have been developing Bailey for 6 major league seasons and now that's he seems to have "turned a corner" people want him traded? I don't get it. He's a truly home-grown talent that has that "throws harder as the game goes on" ability. Cingrani and Leake don't have that. Killer line-ups don't win games (last year's Brewer's were 3rd in runs, finished 14 games back), pitching does.

So why weaken our best chance at a championship? Our offense is ranked 8th in Runs Scored, our offense is fine.

So does no one think playing in GABP inflates RS? (I NEVER see it mentioned here when this comes up) Hasn't it always been a valid argument for Colorado?

Weren't the Reds in the top 5 in RS the last two trips to the postseason? Was it their pitching that lost the SF series last season?

But no, I don't think you trade Bailey unless you're out of it in Aug/Sept or can't afford him in the off-season. Outside of Cingrani there is literally no pitching depth at the upper levels here, none.

[RedEye]

Too many unknowns and not likely's.

Of course there are unknowns and not likely's. This is a hypothetical trade proposal on a Reds message board where no one knows anything about what is really going on behind the scenes.

But If we take our own limitations in crafting a proposal as part of the very question, then what we're really doing is suggesting what sort of trade would make us think about trading Bailey. That's what I tried to do by posting my original ideas about 1) Stanton and 2) Profar.

Neither of these are likely, I admit, but they are the sort of deal I'd need in order to trade one of the top three starters on a playoff-bound team. Otherwise, I want to hang on to Homer and appreciate what he contributes to a great 2013 season.

[AmarilloRed]

Normally I'd always be open to the possibility of trading Bailey if it turns out he doesn't want to re-sign, but I don't think we make playoffs if we trade him at the deadline.

[reds44]

So does no one think playing in GABP inflates RS? (I NEVER see it mentioned here when this comes up) Hasn't it always been a valid argument for Colorado?

Weren't the Reds in the top 5 in RS the last two trips to the postseason? Was it their pitching that lost the SF series last season?

But no, I don't think you trade Bailey unless you're out of it in Aug/Sept or can't afford him in the off-season. Outside of Cingrani there is literally no pitching depth at the upper levels here, none.

Hasn't GABP played out to be an average run scoring park (or something close to that) for the most part? I know it gives up a ton of HRs, but I don't think it's THAT hitter friendly when it comes to runs.