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Thread: Sign of Playoff Woes?

  1. #1
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Cincinnati Reds.....

    30-8 vs teams under .500

    8-14 vs teams over .500

    I don't have the stats for other playoff teams like the Cards or Giants...but this was too much of a difference. Beating everyone we should.....but 8-14 against the teams at our level.

    What are your reasons for this?

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    I don't know but the Giants were 3-4 last year vs the Reds, 1-2 versus the Angels, 3-3 vs StL, 1-5 vs the Nats and 1-2 vs TEX. Somehow that didn't hurt them during the playoffs last year.
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    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    I don't know but the Giants were 3-4 last year vs the Reds, 1-2 versus the Angels, 3-3 vs StL, 1-5 vs the Nats and 1-2 vs TEX. Somehow that didn't hurt them during the playoffs last year.
    Fair enough....but the Giants never had to face the Nats because heaven forbid the Nats to be smart enough to allow Strasburg to pitch in the playoffs....and while you gave a good example.....9-16 for those teams, what about against all of the other + .500 teams?

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Who is to say the teams above .500 now finish above .500, and the teams below .500 finish below .500? The Phillies could finish above, the Pirates could finish below.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Who is to say the teams above .500 now finish above .500, and the teams below .500 finish below .500? The Phillies could finish above, the Pirates could finish below.
    Sure, it's early, but it's still a sign of struggling against stronger opponenents.

    Also, if an injury or other unforseen circumstances make those teams drop below .500, for example, then they *were* stronger up until this point, and got weaker later in the season.
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Cincinnati Reds.....

    30-8 vs teams under .500

    8-14 vs teams over .500

    I don't have the stats for other playoff teams like the Cards or Giants...but this was too much of a difference. Beating everyone we should.....but 8-14 against the teams at our level.

    What are your reasons for this?

    Here's our games so far against current NL playoff competition (ATL,STL,PIT,ARI)

    8-14, 74 (3.4pg) RS 101 (4.6pg) RA, Starters 5-8, Relief 3-6

    In our 8 wins pitching has given up 13 runs combined (0,0,1,1,1,2,4,4) 1.6 rpg

    Games with 2 or less Runs scored: 11 (50%, all comp 32%)
    Games with 3 or 4 runs scored: 6 (27%, all comp 27%)
    Games with 5+ runs scored: 5 (23%, all comp 41%)

    Games with 2 or less runs allowed: 7 (32%, all comp 41%)
    Games with 3 or 4 runs allowed: 5 (27%, all comp 23%)
    Games with 5+ runs allowed: 10 (45%, all comp 32%)

    To me this shows we need another bat preferably a batting average first, on base 2nd, slugging 3rd type of guy. Next obviously would be the relief woes, too many games at 5+.

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    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    1975 Reds vs teams with a winning record 37-29

  11. #8
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    It means nothing. There are 162 games for a reason.

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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Cincinnati Reds.....

    30-8 vs teams under .500

    8-14 vs teams over .500

    I don't have the stats for other playoff teams like the Cards or Giants...but this was too much of a difference. Beating everyone we should.....but 8-14 against the teams at our level.

    What are your reasons for this?
    I don't know the reasons why we aren't beating playoff teams.


    I think we could find some root causes for why we're beating other teams at a rate nobody else is. For one, we come to play every single night. Our rotation is balanced so we throw a solid starter every game so it leads to more consistency game to game. We might just match up particularly well with a couple teams (ahem Cubs). We also are a pretty good road team which leads to results that are more tied to your own level relative to opponent, rather than wins at home and losses on the road.

    If you look at some of those reasons, they might suggest that our team is playing to their level against good teams and have specific things making them really good against everyone else.

    Of course, it could always just be SSS as well.

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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    The Cards are the opposite, bad record against teams under .500. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN!?

  15. #11
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Quote Originally Posted by UCBrownsfan View Post
    Here's our games so far against current NL playoff competition (ATL,STL,PIT,ARI)

    8-14, 74 (3.4pg) RS 101 (4.6pg) RA, Starters 5-8, Relief 3-6

    In our 8 wins pitching has given up 13 runs combined (0,0,1,1,1,2,4,4) 1.6 rpg

    Games with 2 or less Runs scored: 11 (50%, all comp 32%)
    Games with 3 or 4 runs scored: 6 (27%, all comp 27%)
    Games with 5+ runs scored: 5 (23%, all comp 41%)

    Games with 2 or less runs allowed: 7 (32%, all comp 41%)
    Games with 3 or 4 runs allowed: 5 (27%, all comp 23%)
    Games with 5+ runs allowed: 10 (45%, all comp 32%)

    To me this shows we need another bat preferably a batting average first, on base 2nd, slugging 3rd type of guy. Next obviously would be the relief woes, too many games at 5+.
    Another bat or better approaches to hitting against the better teams?

  16. #12
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trajinous View Post
    The Cards are the opposite, bad record against teams under .500. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN!?
    Motivation/Focus issues?

  17. #13
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Fair enough....but the Giants never had to face the Nats because heaven forbid the Nats to be smart enough to allow Strasburg to pitch in the playoffs....and while you gave a good example.....9-16 for those teams, what about against all of the other + .500 teams?
    9-9 vs AZ, 4-3 vs. ATL and 10-8 vs Dodgers. 4-2 vs OAK, 4-2 vs MIL, 4-2 vs PHI (who finished right at .500). You know who they did their greatest damage against? Sub .500 teams. 14-4 vs COL, 12-6 vs SD, 8-1 vs HOU and 6-1 vs the Cubs. Oddly enough they only finished 2-5 vs Miami.

    So while it's nice to beat the over .500 teams during the regular season, it turns out there's really no correlation between that and success in the playoffs. If you get hot at the right time, it doesn't really matter, does it?
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    9-9 vs AZ, 4-3 vs. ATL and 10-8 vs Dodgers. 4-2 vs OAK, 4-2 vs MIL, 4-2 vs PHI (who finished right at .500). You know who they did their greatest damage against? Sub .500 teams. 14-4 vs COL, 12-6 vs SD, 8-1 vs HOU and 6-1 vs the Cubs. Oddly enough they only finished 2-5 vs Miami.

    So while it's nice to beat the over .500 teams during the regular season, it turns out there's really no correlation between that and success in the playoffs. If you get hot at the right time, it doesn't really matter, does it?
    It matters a lot more when 19 out of those 22 games are against teams with in the division, making it more likely to have a 1 game playoff to make the real playoffs, and hoping that 1 game is at home.

  20. #15
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: Sign of Playoff Woes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    9-9 vs AZ, 4-3 vs. ATL and 10-8 vs Dodgers. 4-2 vs OAK, 4-2 vs MIL, 4-2 vs PHI (who finished right at .500). You know who they did their greatest damage against? Sub .500 teams. 14-4 vs COL, 12-6 vs SD, 8-1 vs HOU and 6-1 vs the Cubs. Oddly enough they only finished 2-5 vs Miami.

    So while it's nice to beat the over .500 teams during the regular season, it turns out there's really no correlation between that and success in the playoffs. If you get hot at the right time, it doesn't really matter, does it?
    So they ended up 44-42 against .500+ teams which is a .512 winning %

    The Reds are currently 14-22 which is a .389 winning %

    I know and understand the Reds could very well end up above .500 against those teams but .512 to .389 is a huge difference.


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