Junior Arias

[redsof72]

I am surprised this player is not getting more attention here. Tools wise, ahead of Yorman. Quite a bit faster and quite a bit more power. Much better defensive player, though arms are similar. Very similar experience levels. Arias will be a Reds top 20 prospect at season's end, quite possibly a top 10. Only Bowe and Billy run with him in this org.

Two homers tonight, almost had a third. Should threaten 20 HR, 60 SB club. Not many of those around.

[RedLegsToday]

I understand what you are saying, but, he's also older than Yorman and, now, two levels below him. Definitely having a nice season.

[bubbachunk]

I think there was some decent hype for him but his struggles last year in Dayton really put many people off. Now he is coming back on the radar and probably needs to be promoted to high A

[lollipopcurve]

I said a few days ago that I wouldn't be surprised if he was promoted to Bakersfield. This being his second year in Dayton, and with the way he's hitting, there's an argument for rewarding and pushing him now. Not an automatic call though -- they could offer him a challenge by putting him in the middle of the order. And he's already being challenged with a position shift.

Other factors at play, of course, too. How mature is he? What's his relationship with the coaching staff? How's the situation in Bakersfield? Does Ervin need to be pushed to Dayton?

The prospect depth in outfielders is improving very quickly. And this time of year, with the bullpen situation being what it is in Cincy, that very well could mean a young outfielder will be moved.

[mace]

Thoroughly agree that his star is on the rise. In fact, pitchers aside, I'd think that, as of this moment, Arias would be a strong candidate for organization player of the year.

I'm also intrigued that this assessment comes from redsof72, our trusted source on all things Dayton. 72, if I recall correctly, you were not so keen on Arias last year, referring to him (again, I'm going on memory) as overmatched by the league, or something like that. Not ready for it. This year, the improvement in his offense is there for all to see, production-wise. Can you put your finger on the difference? I'm even more curious in your impression of his defensive switch. He obviously struggled at third base. Does he look significantly better in center field?

[dougdirt]

Even in his hot streak since May 15th where he is hitting .347/.373/.595 he still has just 5 walks and 32 strikeouts in 127 plate appearances. That plate discipline will get you exposed at higher levels. He is certainly doing damage with pitches inside of the zone better than he has in a long time, which is a good sign, but he still swings at a whole bunch of non-strikes and that is going to catch up to him.

Talked with a scout at the MWL AS game about him. Really loved the tools on him. Can't disagree. I just don't know if he will hit at the AA level without some real steps forward in his pitch selection and in his career so far, albeit just 21, he hasn't shown any steps forward in that. His walk rate is the lowest of his career and his strikeout rate is 27%.

[redsof72]

if I recall correctly, you were not so keen on Arias last year, referring to him (again, I'm going on memory) as overmatched by the league, or something like that.

He was the worst all-around player in the league last year. Completely overmatched. He hit .208 and almost broke the team record for errors in a season despite playing less than 100 games at that position.

I am not ready to crown him yet, he can still look terrible on breaking stuff out of the zone, but if you like tools, this is your player. There is no better combination of speed and power in the org.

He hit .185 in April, but in May and June combined (which would be about a third of a season), here is what you have:

.331 avg., .578 slg.
7 HR in 154 AB
9 2B, 4 3B
27 SB

He does not walk at all and strikes out too much. His defense is improving rapidly and considering that he just moved to CF, I think most who have seen him would say he will become a good defensive center fielder.

Make-up wise, well below average and some have wanted to make some comparisons to Yorman in terms of make-up, but I have not seen anything close to the issues on the field from Arias as we saw with Yorman. Of course, you could watch baseball for 20 years and never see the stuff we saw from Yorman.

My earlier post was not made to suggest that, at this point, Arias should be considered a better prospect than Yorman. Yorman has good tools, but when you actually break it down, I don't think anyone could dispute that Arias is faster, has more power, and is a better defensive player. Of course, Arias was also faster and had more power than Yorman last year, when Arias was terrible, so take that for what it's worth.

Arias' speed is considered to be just about equal to Hamilton, maybe just a tick below. Of course, he does not have Hamilton's running instincts...no one does. Arias' pure power is tremendous...not up to Duran's level, but he can hit the ball into the next county.

The age comparisons...I think people take that too literally some times. First of all, you are assuming Yorman is the age he is listed at. I have never quite been convinced of that. Second, guys mature differently. Third, what is their experience levels? For example, a 20 year old hitter who signed at 16 and has been through four instructional leagues, four long seasons with a wood bat, and has 1200 pro plate appearances should be further along than a 21 year old right out of college. When you look at age, also look at how much pro experience they have.

If I was going to find a knock on Arias, it would be this: do it for more than a half season and then we'll take you seriously. Let's see how the rest of the year pans out. But if his July and August look like his May and June, he will be a Reds top-10 prospect going into next season. Pitchers, even at this level, are now going to start pitching him differently and he is going to see a lot more breaking stuff in the second half. Let's see what happens.

[bellhead]

72..

For running/speed, Urban Meyer bases speed upon the ability to be at top speed in 3 steps, because this is what separates elite speed. A lot of guys run a sub 11 100 meters but the difference between elite sports players is burst. Watching Billy he has the ability to be at top speed in 3 steps. Does Jr. have this?

[dougdirt]

72..

For running/speed, Urban Meyer bases speed upon the ability to be at top speed in 3 steps, because this is what separates elite speed. A lot of guys run a sub 11 100 meters but the difference between elite sports players is burst. Watching Billy he has the ability to be at top speed in 3 steps. Does Jr. have this?

Urban Meyer can use that because in football, it matters a whole lot. In baseball, it matters less. Certainly it does matter, particularly on defense, but at the end of the day in baseball it is how fast you can go 90+ feet, not how fast you can get 15 feet (for most positions - shortstop/second base may be different because of the range applied). When looking at base running and outfield play especially, it is how quick you can get from point A to point B and most of the time that is going to be a lot more than the first few steps worth.

[redsof72]

I can't really give you an educated opinion on that, but what you say is true. Billy is at top speed in a heart beat. My comment about Arias's speed is based on clockings from one base to the next. A guy who was slower out of his break but faster at top speed would eventually catch up, obviously, if the measuring distance was long enough.

Arias' speed out of a lead off first, sliding into second, to contact with the bag, is virtually the same as Hamilton or Bowe. That doesn't factor in the ability to read the pitcher, or else there would be Herb Washingtons in the game today.

[dougdirt]

I always love a good Herb Washington reference.

[redsof72]

The one situation where I would say it translates into baseball is shortstop play. We could see in Dayton that Todd Frazier did not have the explosive burst at shortstop to go get a slow chopper, even though he had the other fielding skills to play the position, and it was clear after watching about one week of Frazier at shortstop that he would have to move.

I always said that I thought of all the positions on the field, Frazier's best defensive position would be third base. I think he ended up there, not so much because anyone necessarily agreed with that assessment, but because of need at that spot. He has an infielder's hands and the arm to play third, so if you put him at first or in the outfield, one of those tools was going to be wasted.

[klw]

Junior Arias is so fast that some day we may see him pitching and playing left field at the same time.

[holster10]

It would be nice to see multiple legit OF prospects in the upper minors in a few years

[bellhead]

Urban Meyer can use that because in football, it matters a whole lot. In baseball, it matters less. Certainly it does matter, particularly on defense, but at the end of the day in baseball it is how fast you can go 90+ feet, not how fast you can get 15 feet (for most positions - shortstop/second base may be different because of the range applied). When looking at base running and outfield play especially, it is how quick you can get from point A to point B and most of the time that is going to be a lot more than the first few steps worth.

Doug,

It does apply more to football where when you catch a pass in traffic and can get to top speed faster than anybody else nearby you. Percy Harvin and Ted Ginn are great examples of this. I also think it applies more in baseball to defense as a lot of times a great break on the ball is essential.