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Thread: At this point, would ya take....

  1. #1
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    At this point, would ya take....

    being the second wild card or prefer to play out the season and see what happens??

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  3. #2
    Member medford's Avatar
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    play out the season and see what happens; how much fun would the next 3 months be if you already knew the destination?

  4. #3
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    Play it out and see what happens. The reds are only 3.5 games out of first place in the division. That's not totally out of it with 2 weeks to go let alone half the season.

  5. #4
    Member cumberlandreds's Avatar
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    Still 81+ games to go. Lets see what happens.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  6. #5
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    When there is over half a season left, it's too early for that IMO. CIN, PIT & STL have the 3 best records in baseball so it's easy enough to say 1 will win the division and the other 2 are the wild cards but no fan of any of the 9-10 NL teams the really have a legitimate chance of a playoff berth should 'settle' for the 2nd WC - yet.

    Good question for the middle of August but not the end of June. The Reds & Cards are playing +/- .500 ball for June, the Bucs are on a real impressive hot streak, going 14-9 so far this month.

  7. #6
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    Deal or No Deal? OK, I'll play.

    At this point, BP is giving the REDS a 66% WC chance and an 18% Div winner prob.
    I think that's pretty accurate (wish it were low, but...).

    So with those odds, you probably still want to play it out. Assuming a 50-50 chance of winning the play-in as a WC, you're looking at a 51% chance (18+66/2) of making the NLDS.
    If you are assured a WC, under those same assumptions you have a 50% chance of making the NLDS. The advantage being that the uncertainty of making or not the playoffs has been eliminated.

    So, at this point, I'd play it out, but slip a bit further or if some other team roars into WC contention, it would make sense to "take" this ultra-hypothetical deal.
    Last edited by oneupper; 06-27-2013 at 09:13 AM.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

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  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    1st wildcard and 2nd wildcard aren't all that different. If it meant we were a lock of the playoffs, I'd take it.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Deal or No Deal? OK, I'll play.

    At this point, BP is giving the REDS a 66% WC chance and an 18% Div winner prob.
    I think that's pretty accurate (wish it were low, but...).

    So with those odds, you probably still want to play it out. Assuming a 50-50 chance of winning the play-in as a WC, you're looking at a 51% chance (18+66/2) of making the NLDS.
    If you are assured a WC, under those same assumptions you have a 50% chance of making the NLDS. The advantage being that the uncertainty of making or not the playoffs has been eliminated.

    So, at this point, I'd play it out, but slip a bit further or if some other team roars into WC contention, it would make sense to "take" this ultra-hypothetical deal.
    I do agree with your point though.. It seems unlikely the Reds will collapse and lose a spot in the playoffs (barring catastrophic injuries)

    Honestly, this has been a fun season for me, even with Ludwick being out, the bullpen going through a cold spell, etc. I still feel that we have a chance to win every game. I would hate to miss out on 1/2 season of baseball watching just to be guaranteed the WC.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    _Sir_Charles_ (06-27-2013)

  11. #9
    Member RadfordVA's Avatar
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    Would play it out.

    I feel they have as good a chance as any as winning the division. I don't see the Cards or Pirates finishing the year at their current win pct. To me it is all about the division, means so much more to me than Wild Card. Most people only care about the World Series so just making it and having a chance makes sense to them, but I prefer winning the 162 game race.

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    _Sir_Charles_ (06-27-2013)

  13. #10
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    Why is the choice this? 4 games out of FIRST and over half a season left to go. At this point, I fully expect us to retake first place and put considerable distance between us and the rest of the division.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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    smixsell (06-28-2013)

  15. #11
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Why is the choice this? 4 games out of FIRST and over half a season left to go. At this point, I fully expect us to retake first place and put considerable distance between us and the rest of the division.
    I'm with you!

    The Yankees, Baltimore, San Francisco are all 3.5 games back. Do you think their division championship chances are dead? It's not even the All-Star break.

  16. #12
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    Play it out, for sure. There's a lot of upside in winning the central. Don't have to play the wild card game and we'd likely have home field through the NL playoffs (likely that NL Central winner has best record in NL).

  17. #13
    Member joshua's Avatar
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    I'd let it play out...

    If I were a Pirates fan, I'd take the 2nd wildcard without hesitation.

  18. #14
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    At this point I see 90 plus games in the season, prefer to see them played out

  19. #15
    Member Gainesville Red's Avatar
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    Re: At this point, would ya take....

    Play it out.

    If you end it today, what am I supposed to do with my evenings for the next 3 months?

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    cumberlandreds (06-27-2013), NCCardfan (06-28-2013), Number_Fourteen (06-28-2013), Roy Tucker (06-28-2013), Tom Servo (06-28-2013), westofyou (06-27-2013)


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