Sure thing. I should've left the first one alone, where he is hanging with Babe Ruth and the Three Musketeers of PEDs. Dropping to .350 is pretty irrelevant anyway since he is obliterating that number as it is.Originally Posted by westofyou
Sure thing. I should've left the first one alone, where he is hanging with Babe Ruth and the Three Musketeers of PEDs. Dropping to .350 is pretty irrelevant anyway since he is obliterating that number as it is.
Using a randomly grabbed number (.350) and not factoring in the league average is pretty bad, but using the time span that includes the 64-94 period with bookends of hitting eras pretty much missed the mark too.
I have to say that I usually lean toward the "it's possible" with these "outliers," but not sure that it matters anymore.
What is insidious about all this is that the current generation of players have the previous generation to thank for all this rank speculation that they must endure. But then they can thank them for all the money that is available to them because the former generation of players sold their baseball souls for filthy lucre, most of which they have probably blown in bad investments or been leeched away by family and friends.
So, is Chris Davis grateful that he will be making mega millions in the game as he blossoms into a star or will be resentful because of the price he has had to pay as a power hitter on a record pace?
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
What's also pretty bad is comparing steroid guys to other steroid guys as those seasons won't really show up in a vs the league comparison since the league was inflated as well.
In using .400 ISO vs the history of the game in any era, (steroid, live ball, dead ball, higher mound, lower mound, etc), it opens enough eyes as it is. Davis (to this point) vs the history of the game is Ruth and the steroid trio.
If he falls off the map in the 2nd half then maybe there is something to discuss. But to this point it is an easy discussion to have.
http://baseballmusings.com/?p=95244
Chris Davis ended the pre-Break part of the season on a very strong note, hitting home runs in four consecutive games. His probabilities of the AL single season home run record are the highest they’ve been all season. His chance of tying the record stands at 0.06%, and his chance of breaking the record comes in at 0.03% That’s based on his career home run rate through 2012. Other players got off to great pre-break starts, like Reggie Jackson in 1969 and Mark McGwire in 1987, only to peter out in the second half. Both were rather new players at the time, so the league was still learning how to pitch to them. We’ll see if the more veteran Davis can keep up the pace. You can see the daily probabilities in graphic form here.
In all of this conversation, I think it's important to keep strongly in mind that comparing what Davis has done so far to what guys have done in full seasons is borderline pointless.
In small samples, there were will always be a wider range of rate stats. That's the nature of variance. It's just a slightly more robust version of the silliness of looking at "on pace" stats in April.
You can take virtually any stat and say "look at what has happened in half a season, if this holds up it will be historic! We say it as if it's a meaningful statement, as if the regression were not almost inevitable.
That's not to say Davis isn't have an historic season. But if the point is that his current performance is really extreme compared to full season changes, you're actually diluting the insightfulness. It would be more interesting to compare an updated end-of-season projected ISO for Davis against historical comps (e.g. Let's say he ends the year at .340, how many people added .095 points of ISO in back to back years)?
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
The guy with 7 home runs this season is the guy you want to toss in as a user?
RedEye (07-15-2013)
I just ran the data on guys that hit .216 in a full season and went onto win batting titles. I'm not saying Molina's using, but yes he's using. There's zero other plausible explanations.
Point taken on "small" samples, however does that mean that we should not talk about much until the end of the season? Mike Leake's performance, the bullpen, Dusty as a manager, if the Reds are disappointing or not, etc?
Also, I would put more into the small sample defense if he had 20 in the first half, even 25. But he is 7 off the ML leader from all of 2012. In the first half of '13. Small sample or not, he is having the kind of season that generates buzz. Both positive and negative.
No, the fact that you are accusing him of cheating (and doing something illegal) with absolutely no actual evidence at all means you shouldn't be talking about it at all.
We've mentioned this before Doug. I don't believe the poster said anything about Davis doing something illegal. Simply that Davis may be using prohibited substances by MLB.
Now, if he is PEDing, sure there is a good chance he is doing so illegally, but until someone comes out and says he is breaking the law, I don't think it is fair for you to put words in someone's mouth here and say they are claiming him to be breaking the law.
Melky Cabrera was using and only had 11 hrs in 113 games. He was on a pace maybe to pass his career high of 18 before he got suspended. I would add that his OPS was 100 points higher than the prior year and his HR total would see some supression by his home ballpark, but then you could probably easily parallel that with Molina, who is in a pitching friendly, homer supressing home park.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Other than baseball and cycling, I don't recall many great achievements in other sports that resulted in speculation of drug use. I guess you could add track and field to the list.
The NFL is the ground breaking sport for steroid use and goes all the way back to the 60's.
Come on. No one is accusing him of using something he can get at GNC. They are accusing him of using steroids or HGH. Just because they didn't say it doesn't mean it isn't what they are implying. We both know that.
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