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Thread: Chris Davis

  1. #211
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Melky Cabrera was using and only had 11 hrs in 113 games. He was on a pace maybe to pass his career high of 18 before he got suspended. I would add that his OPS was 100 points higher than the prior year and his HR total would see some supression by his home ballpark, but then you could probably easily parallel that with Molina, who is in a pitching friendly, homer supressing home park.
    And Melky Cabrera benefited a whole lot more from a career high in BABIP last year that probably had a whole heck of a lot more to do with his performance than whatever he was taking.

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  3. #212
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And Melky Cabrera benefited a whole lot more from a career high in BABIP last year that probably had a whole heck of a lot more to do with his performance than whatever he was taking.
    No Doug.. those stat tricks don't play in the steroid age, they only apply to the folks from olden days, these days everyone is a cheater until they can prove they aren't and if they can't prove they aren't they are still cheaters!!

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    RedEye (07-15-2013)

  5. #213
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    The NFL is the ground breaking sport for steroid use and goes all the way back to the 60's.
    Steroid use allowed for the great teams the Steelers, Cowboys and Broncos had in the 70's. All those teams were tainted, IMO. Then you had Paul Brown coaching the Bengals, and he was 100% against his players using steroids. That decade might have gone a lot differently if all teams were playing on an even field.

    However, the NFL does test regularly, and has for quite a while now. When is the last time one of the NFL's marquee players tested positive for anything, or had a record erased from the books over drug testing? Did anyone ever suspect Brady, Manning, Favre, Peterson, Payton, Sanders, Rice, Marino, Montana, etc? I've never heard of any suspicion surrounding any big NFL star.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  6. #214
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Come on. No one is accusing him of using something he can get at GNC. They are accusing him of using steroids or HGH. Just because they didn't say it doesn't mean it isn't what they are implying. We both know that.
    Well, it seems your side of this debate falls strongly on the point that there is no evidence that Davis is using so he should be left alone. Which is a very strong case.

    But there is also no evidence that (most) people on here are accusing him of being a criminal, and I would hope you would let them say so before putting words in their mouths. There are legal routes to using testosterone.

    It only seems fair.

  7. #215
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    Steroid use allowed for the great teams the Steelers, Cowboys and Broncos had in the 70's. All those teams were tainted, IMO. Then you had Paul Brown coaching the Bengals, and he was 100% against his players using steroids. That decade might have gone a lot differently if all teams were playing on an even field.

    However, the NFL does test regularly, and has for quite a while now. When is the last time one of the NFL's marquee players tested positive for anything, or had a record erased from the books over drug testing? Did anyone ever suspect Brady, Manning, Favre, Peterson, Payton, Sanders, Rice, Marino, Montana, etc? I've never heard of any suspicion surrounding any big NFL star.
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    New York Red (07-15-2013)

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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by improbus View Post
    Deer Antler Spray?
    I absolutely despise Ray Lewis, so I'm a little surprised I'd forgotten that already. I'll use an old ORG standby though, and just say "small sample size".
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  10. #217
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    And Melky Cabrera benefited a whole lot more from a career high in BABIP last year that probably had a whole heck of a lot more to do with his performance than whatever he was taking.
    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    No Doug.. those stat tricks don't play in the steroid age, they only apply to the folks from olden days, these days everyone is a cheater until they can prove they aren't and if they can't prove they aren't they are still cheaters!!
    I really don't have a dog in this hunt, but I'm not seeing this as being any kind of an argument for a guy who is not just suspected, but was busted. I call the above rationalizing.
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  11. #218
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    Steroid use allowed for the great teams the Steelers, Cowboys and Broncos had in the 70's. All those teams were tainted, IMO. Then you had Paul Brown coaching the Bengals, and he was 100% against his players using steroids. That decade might have gone a lot differently if all teams were playing on an even field.

    However, the NFL does test regularly, and has for quite a while now. When is the last time one of the NFL's marquee players tested positive for anything, or had a record erased from the books over drug testing? Did anyone ever suspect Brady, Manning, Favre, Peterson, Payton, Sanders, Rice, Marino, Montana, etc? I've never heard of any suspicion surrounding any big NFL star.
    Pro-Bowler Shawne Merriman was suspended for PED's a few years ago. Heck, the Seattle Seahawks have had 5 guys suspended in the last 3 seasons for it. The media simply doesn't make a big deal about it. There have been 50, FIFTY, PED related suspension in the NFL since 2010 began. How many have there been in Major League baseball since then? Ten.

    Oh, and MLB has tougher testing.

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    RedEye (07-15-2013), Tom Servo (07-15-2013)

  13. #219
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Hey, is there a link to "steroid BABIP" vs. "non-steroid BABIP?" Perhaps there is causation to BABIP for steroid use. It at least needs to be considered since that is becoming a nice talking point to explain away the steroid era.
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    The Operator (07-16-2013)

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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Pro-Bowler Shawne Merriman was suspended for PED's a few years ago. Heck, the Seattle Seahawks have had 5 guys suspended in the last 3 seasons for it. The media simply doesn't make a big deal about it. There have been 50, FIFTY, PED related suspension in the NFL since 2010 began. How many have there been in Major League baseball since then? Ten.
    And part of it is that we only care about a few individual NFL players. Outside of them, it is a meat market so who cares (says the NFL fanbase).
    Variatio delectat - Cicero

  16. #221
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    Hey, is there a link to "steroid BABIP" vs. "non-steroid BABIP?" Perhaps there is causation to BABIP for steroid use. It at least needs to be considered since that is becoming a nice talking point to explain away the steroid era.
    Has this been a major talking point? I only saw it in reference to a possible other explanation for Melky Cabrera's stats last year. I think the point there was that steroid accusers tend to get tunnel vision about what could have caused a spike in numbers. For Melky, we know he used -- but we don't know if that use is what caused his performance in 2012 since he also got BABIP lucky that year. There are just other variables to consider, that's all. And that casts the process of studying statistical evidence in doubt where PED use is concerned.
    Last edited by RedEye; 07-15-2013 at 03:41 PM.

  17. #222
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    No, the fact that you are accusing him of cheating (and doing something illegal) with absolutely no actual evidence at all means you shouldn't be talking about it at all.
    Again, it's worth noting there are hundreds and hundreds of "banned" substances on the MLB list. Many of them are absolutely not illegal and can be purchased by any regular person at Wal Mart, GNC, etc.. That point really isn't very relevant to the conversation. There are many, many loopholes to legally take substances both legal and prescription-based.

    Furthermore, we're not speaking about people living in a convent. We're talking about athletes playing a game that has seen overwhelmingly pervasive usage of supplements. This isn't exactly a needle in a haystack. It's throwing the ball up against the side of a barn.
    Last edited by Brutus; 07-15-2013 at 03:44 PM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  18. #223
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Pro-Bowler Shawne Merriman was suspended for PED's a few years ago. Heck, the Seattle Seahawks have had 5 guys suspended in the last 3 seasons for it. The media simply doesn't make a big deal about it. There have been 50, FIFTY, PED related suspension in the NFL since 2010 began. How many have there been in Major League baseball since then? Ten.

    Oh, and MLB has tougher testing.
    I'm talking about marquee players and their accomplishments. That's what I originally replied to. I never said there aren't drugs in other sports. I said the marquee players who are putting up eye-opening numbers in football, basketball, hockey, etc., aren't being questioned or suspected. And no, I never considered Shawne Merriman a marquee player.

    I guarantee you, if Adrian Peterson, Tom Brady and Drew Brees tested positive for steroids, the media would be all over it. Baseball is going through a period, stretching well over a decade now, in which many of the biggest stars and most glamorous records, have involved PED use. No other major sport has endured a period like that, so maybe that's why there isn't the same suspicions and assumptions as there is in baseball.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  19. #224
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Hey a Chris Davis thread!

    Well I guess I should mention it here I am looking forward to his performance tonight in the home run derby.

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  21. #225
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Point taken on "small" samples, however does that mean that we should not talk about much until the end of the season? Mike Leake's performance, the bullpen, Dusty as a manager, if the Reds are disappointing or not, etc?

    Also, I would put more into the small sample defense if he had 20 in the first half, even 25. But he is 7 off the ML leader from all of 2012. In the first half of '13. Small sample or not, he is having the kind of season that generates buzz. Both positive and negative.
    No. As I suggested, you should talk about performance to date in the proper context of its implication on expected end-of-season performance. That way you can reasonably compare with historical performances.

    The "if he keeps this up" assumption is a silly one to make because we know that it's highly unlikely he'll keep it up.

    I agree that what he's doing is noteworthy, but it's noteworthiness is a function of the sample size. He's hitting about 3 HRs a week. If this were one week in, we wouldn't be talking history. Now that we're 14 or 15 weeks in, the historical comps become really interesting.

    But the reason they become interesting that because as the sample size grows, the more likely it is that it's "real". But this is a gradual shift. We should't just flip the switch from "too early to say anything" to "pretend like it's a full season". We can account for the increasing meaningfulness by using what has happened so far in the context of an end of year projection.

    ZiPS projects him to finish the year with a .349 ISO. There have only been 41 seasons in MLB history of a .350+ ISO, the last few being Bautista (2010), Hafner (2006) and Bonds (2004). That's one heck of a story, especially the potential Bautista ahd Hafner (especially Hafner) late-bloomer comp.

    However, let's say that project on May 15th was .303 -- at that point there 214 such seasons (.300+ ISO). It's a less interesting story in that context.

    The reality is that we basically already do this intuitively. The story becomes more "real" as the season goes on. I'm just suggesting a way to make that adjustment a bit more rigorous and not quite as black/white.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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