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Thread: Chris Davis

  1. #316
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    I'm too lazy to look this up, but I want to say that I heard them say on tv the other day that he has 56 HR in his last 162 games. Pretty exclusive club of people who have done that.
    He also has 50 in last 126, so something like that.

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  3. #317
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Davis HR's by season. I hope I did my math correctly.
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...avisch02.shtml


    Code:
    Year     Age         Games      HR        PA         HR/ PA
    2006     20           69        15       280          18.67
    2007     21           129       36       542          15.06
    2008     22           157       40       646          16.15
    2009     23           157       27       613          22.07
    2010     24           148       15       580          38.67
    2011     25           109       29       428          14.75
    2012     26           139       33       562          17.03 
    2013     27           95        37       393          10.62
    Here is an interesting blog post from early 2011 about his struggles in 09 and 10.
    http://www.bbtia.com/home/2010/6/24/...her-davis.html

    The root cause of Davis’ problems in 2009 and 2010 is easy to identify: Through his first three professional seasons, Davis posted nearly identical numbers against left- and right-handed pitchers (.300/.352/.603 and .303/.353/.558 vs. minor league right- and left-handed pitchers, respectively, and .288/.336/.534 and .286/.330/.607 vs. major league right- and left-handed pitchers, respectively). In 2009, Davis continued to hit right-handers well, but he suddenly lost his way against lefties (see graph below). It started with a 44 percent strikeout rate and a .141/.203/.282 line vs. major league left-handers at the beginning of the 2009 season.
    Prior to each season, Baseball Prospectus publishes a list of players whose age-appropriate statistical profiles are most similar to each player in the league. Earlier this year, the 15 players with statistical profiles through their age-23 seasons that were most similar to Chris Davis comprised eight players who became everyday contributors in the major leagues and included Eric Karros (No. 1), Glenn Davis (No. 4), Joey Votto (No. 6), Lee Stevens (No. 9), Richie Sexson (No. 12), and David Ortiz (No. 14).
    Last edited by klw; 07-16-2013 at 06:07 PM.

  4. #318
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by Donder View Post
    Chris Davis says the record he's chasing is 61 home runs. Votto disagrees.

    "If Chris feels like 61 is the home run record, maybe heís just selfishly pegging that number as the home run record so if he passes it he can wear a crown or something like that, there would be a lot of money in that."

    http://sports.yahoo.com/news/chris-d...024447378.html
    Blunt and extremely to the point. Classic Votto!

  5. #319
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBaron View Post
    I have no idea if Davis is juicing. It wouldn't shock me if he is, nor would it surprise me if he is clean. There are precedents for his HR surge though by players who are not suspected of using anything stronger than coffee: Roger Maris and George Foster, among others.
    Davis is in his age 27 season. His HR season totals during his age 22-26 seasons were: 17, 21, 1, 19, 33.
    Maris's age 22-26 seasons: 14, 28, 16, 39, 61.
    Foster's age 22-26 seasons: 13, 2, 4, 7, 23.
    Maris of course followed up his 61 HR season at age 26 with a 33 HR season and never thereafter reached 30 HRs. Foster followed up his age 26 season of 23 HRs with seasons of 29, 52, 40 and 30, and then never again reached 30.
    Even in those situations, Maris had an ISO jump of .216 for his career to .351 the season he hit 61 homers (135 points).

    George Foster, meanwhile, jumped 124 points from his career average to the 1977 season.

    Right now, Chris Davis' ISO is 194 points higher than his previous career.

    Here are some examples of his company that I could find with this sort of leap:

    Barry Bonds (2001), 257 points
    Brady Anderson (1996), 197 points
    Jose Bautista (2010), 195 points
    Luis Gonzalez (2001), 184 points
    Ken Caminiti (1996), 158 points
    Mark McGwire (1997), 157 points

    Do these names ring a bell for any particular reason?

    Now, going through 1960 to 1990, here are the largest ISO jumps I could find for anyone that ISO'd at least .300 in a season during that timeframe.

    Kevin Mitchell (1989), 152 points
    Roger Maris (1961), 135 points
    George Foster (1977), 124 points
    Mickey Mantle (1956), 122 points (he was still only 24 at this time)
    Jack Clark (1987), 109 points
    Fred Lynn (1979), 109 points
    Willie Stargell (1973), 104 points

    I excluded guys that previously had fewer than 1,000 plate appearances. Regardless, I think it's plain to see that the kind of jump Davis is enjoying simply never happened until the steroid/PED era and only guys that have already admitted or been implicated have seen these kinds of leaps.
    Last edited by Brutus; 07-16-2013 at 06:22 PM.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  6. #320
    Member Superdude's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I excluded guys that previously had fewer than 1,000 plate appearances. Regardless, I think it's plain to see that the kind of jump Davis is enjoying simply never happened until the steroid/PED era and only guys that have already admitted or been implicated have seen these kinds of leaps.
    The stats tell us Chris Davis is better at baseball. To imply that they tell us something definitive about how or why that's the case is just not true. I'll buy the stat conviction argument when someone can explain how Roger Maris' or Mickey Mantle's accomplishments from fifty ago in a radically different environment translate perfectly to the be-all end-all cap on human productivity in 2013.

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  8. #321
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Selig says there has been more than 16,000 drug tests administered last year, and less than half of 1% tested positive
    He also said..."sure, let's end this ASG in a tie"

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  10. #322
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    The stats tell us Chris Davis is better at baseball. To imply that they tell us something definitive about how or why that's the case is just not true. I'll buy the stat conviction argument when someone can explain how Roger Maris' or Mickey Mantle's accomplishments from fifty ago in a radically different environment translate perfectly to the be-all end-all cap on human productivity in 2013.
    I'm not comparing Chris Davis to Mickey Mantle or Roger Maris. I'm comparing Chris Davis' own previous accomplishments to his current accomplishments, and showing how literally no baseball player in the history of the game has come within 45-50 points of making the kind of improvement Davis has made in a single season over his established career baseline.

    We're not talking about a mild jump. We're talking almost 60 ISO points improvement higher than Maris' improvement. It's akin to going from .200 ISO to .336 versus .200 ISO to .394. That's highly significant, especially since only a few dozen players in the history of the game have even gone from an established .200 (ish) baseline to over .300 in a single season.

    When only steroid-era guys are making that kind of radical jump -- guys that have either admitted or been implicated -- and no one else in the history of the game showed anywhere near that kind of sudden improvement, one has to treat the conditions that caused said jump as likely being similar.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  11. #323
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    He also said..."sure, let's end this ASG in a tie"
    And now he says the ASG counts.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #324
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    When only steroid-era guys are making that kind of radical jump -- guys that have either admitted or been implicated -- and no one else in the history of the game showed anywhere near that kind of sudden improvement, one has to treat the conditions that caused said jump as likely being similar.
    But with Davis we are talking about who always hit for power in MiLB. At Age 22 he hit 40 homers including 17 in the bigs in half a season. He not like Palmeiro or Sosa who did that sort of power until their mid and late 20's or like Steve Finley who suddenly started hitting homers at age 31. Does it mean he is clean? Beats me but it makes it a bit more likely.

  13. #325
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    But with Davis we are talking about who always hit for power in MiLB. At Age 22 he hit 40 homers including 17 in the bigs in half a season. He not like Palmeiro or Sosa who did that sort of power until their mid and late 20's or like Steve Finley who suddenly started hitting homers at age 31. Does it mean he is clean? Beats me but it makes it a bit more likely.
    No one is arguing he hit for power. But the man has added 200 points to his own previous ISO. Only two guys in the history of baseball, that I have found anyhow, have ever done that. Both are known steroid users.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  14. #326
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Why don't we let the season play out before we start assuming Davis has a changed true talent level?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  16. #327
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    No one is arguing he hit for power. But the man has added 200 points to his own previous ISO. Only two guys in the history of baseball, that I have found anyhow, have ever done that. Both are known steroid users.
    Do we have Davis' ISO from the minors?

  17. #328
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Why don't we let the season play out before we start assuming Davis has a changed true talent level?
    Because we want to just toss around the label cheater right now.

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  19. #329
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    No one is arguing he hit for power. But the man has added 200 points to his own previous ISO. Only two guys in the history of baseball, that I have found anyhow, have ever done that. Both are known steroid users.
    Maybe he's a witch?

  20. #330
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Chris Davis

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Maybe he's a witch?
    A witch on PEDs of course.


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