Chris Davis

[kaldaniels]

This is important, because remember, pitchers can be on PED's as well.

While I agree with AD that there were other factors besides PED's in play to account for more scoring a decade ago, the problem with his argument is that we don't know who or how many were using PED's at any one time. There actually could be more using now than in the late '90's.

The testing is far too minimal and the penalties far too weak to conclude that they have had any impact on actual usage. Melkey Cabrera was caught using PED's and his punishment was a $16M contract and a World Series ring.

Absolutely. Scoring goes up and down for a multitude of reasons. But I don't think it is unreasonable to think that PEDs perverted things.

[Brutus]

Although if you actually run the correlations you will see scoring was already dropping while steroid usage was still increasing. Then you will see that scoring continued to drop at the same pace even after steroid testing began and usage rates plummeted. You should have seen a rapid drop in scoring if steroids had been strongly boosting scoring as you believe. The stats clearly show that steroid usage and scoring DO NOT correlate well at all.

There were plenty of other things that were going on in baseball over those years that more accurately describe the reasons for the increase then decrease in scoring rates. I listed them all in Redszone threads a few times in the past. There were a whole host of sweeping changes over those years that fully account for the ebbs and flows in scoring. Too many people missed these transformations due to the overwhelming publicity given to steroids.

I'll side with Baseball Prospectus who pointed out the fallacy of the whole "steroids ruined the game" angle rather than the wingnuts who cry "STEROIDS!, STEROIDS!" every time someone goes on a home run tear.

There have been plenty of times in the past when home runs suddenly spiked around the league. Guys like Ted Kluszweski and Davey Johnson and many others had sudden drastic increases in home run totals. But when it happens nowadays everyone has to fall into the steroids fallacy every time. The fact that these spikes are still occurring with current players should be an indication that steroids were not as influential as most still believe.

Last 20 years, runs scored per game:

1992: 4.12
1993: 4.60
1995: 4.85
1996: 5.04
1997: 4.77
1998: 4.79
1999: 5.08
2000: 5.14
--all players not on a 40-man roster subject to testing--
2001: 4.78
2002: 4.62
2003: 4.73
2004: 4.81
--first testing implemented in spring training for all players, and subject to one random test a season--
2005: 4.59
--current punitive testing put into full force--
2006: 4.86
2007: 4.80
2008: 4.65
2009: 4.61
2010: 4.38
2011: 4.28
2012: 4.32
2013: 4.23

In the height of the PEDS era, the average RPG was 5.14. Since testing has been implemented at various stages, it has fluctuated and since gone down almost year after year once punitive measures were taken.

[jojo]

If one really wants to separate means and point to a season of demarcation, the offensive environment has significantly decreased from 2010 going forward, a period where it's difficult to blame the downturn directly on testing.

[membengal]

Here is his secret weapon:

Monkey on a stick? Cruel...

[edabbs44]

Although if you actually run the correlations you will see scoring was already dropping while steroid usage was still increasing. Then you will see that scoring continued to drop at the same pace even after steroid testing began and usage rates plummeted. You should have seen a rapid drop in scoring if steroids had been strongly boosting scoring as you believe. The stats clearly show that steroid usage and scoring DO NOT correlate well at all.

Which years, exactly, were steroid usage increasing?

[RedEye]

Absolutely. Scoring goes up and down for a multitude of reasons. But I don't think it is unreasonable to think that PEDs perverted things.

Even if this were true, it still wouldn't provide a warrant for arguing that Yadier Molina, Chris Davis or whoever else juiced.

[osuceltic]

Even if this were true, it still wouldn't provide a warrant for arguing that Yadier Molina, Chris Davis or whoever else juiced.

This isn't a court of law. It's not a newspaper or a television broadcast or any other means of mass communication. This is the equivalent of a bunch of friends sitting around talking about baseball. Whether on this board or with my friends around the lunch table, I sometimes talk about who might be using steroids or who I think is dogging it or who seems like a selfish player or any number of things (not all of them so negative -- but I doubt you would care to police my more positive conversations).

I guess I'm saying get over yourself. It's an internet message board. When someone on the board goes on 60 Minutes to accuse Chris Davis and Yadier Molina of using steroids, then you can climb on your soap box and act indignant.

[Ironman92]

In 1919 Babe Ruth had more home runs than 10 of the 15 other teams in baseball.

In 1920 Babe Ruth had more home runs than 14 of the 15 other teams in baseball.

In 1921 Babe Ruth had more home runs than 8 of the 15 other teams in baseball and tied another one.

In 1922 Babe Ruth had more home runs than 2 of the 15 other teams in baseball and he didn't play a full season.

In 1923 Babe Ruth had more home runs than 3 of the 15 other teams in baseball.

In 1924 Babe Ruth had more home runs than 8 of the other 15 teams in baseball.

Those are things that aren't happening. Guys have been hitting a lot of home runs for a long time.

George Foster hit 52 home runs in 1977. He had never hit 30 before that. What happened then?

Easily correlated....

Babe Ruth, George Foster and Chris Davis all consume HGH Poptarts....

[Norm Chortleton]

Davis is currently hitting a HR every 9.6 ABs. Over the past 40 years, there have only 15 other instances of players' HR:AB ratio being under 10:

Aaron, 1973
McGwire, 1995
McGwire, 1996
McGwire, 1997
McGwire, Sosa 1998
McGwire, Sosa 1999
Bonds, 2000
Bonds, Sosa 2001
Bonds, Thome 2002
Bonds, 2003
Bonds, 2004
Davis, 2013

Need I remind you that 13 of the 15 are known steroid users?

[Tom Servo]

Davis is currently hitting a HR every 9.6 ABs. Over the past 40 years, there have only 15 other instances of players' HR:AB ratio being under 10:

Aaron, 1973
McGwire, 1995
McGwire, 1996
McGwire, 1997
McGwire, Sosa 1998
McGwire, Sosa 1999
Bonds, 2000
Bonds, Sosa 2001
Bonds, Thome 2002
Bonds, 2003
Bonds, 2004
Davis, 2013

Need I remind you that 13 of the 15 are known steroid users?

Currently hitting a HR every 9.6 at-bats, who is to say that pace will continue the rest of the season?

[Norm Chortleton]

Who is to say he won't up the pace to 8.5? Of course, no one knows what will happen in the future.

[Tom Servo]

Who is to say he won't up the pace to 8.5? Of course, no one knows what will happen in the future.

I will go out on a real limb here and predict that Davis won't be the first player since Barry Bonds in 2001 to hit 60+ home runs.

[757690]

Currently hitting a HR every 9.6 at-bats, who is to say that pace will continue the rest of the season?

Right. It's 81 games of a season. Many players have had a great 81 games of a season and a not so great other 81 games. Davis could end up with 40 HR's for all we know.

[mbgrayson]

This isn't a court of law. It's not a newspaper or a television broadcast or any other means of mass communication. This is the equivalent of a bunch of friends sitting around talking about baseball. Whether on this board or with my friends around the lunch table, I sometimes talk about who might be using steroids or who I think is dogging it or who seems like a selfish player or any number of things (not all of them so negative -- but I doubt you would care to police my more positive conversations).

I guess I'm saying get over yourself. It's an internet message board. When someone on the board goes on 60 Minutes to accuse Chris Davis and Yadier Molina of using steroids, then you can climb on your soap box and act indignant.

You are wrong about this. RedsZone is a PUBLIC messaging board, and anyone can read what we post here. In fact, Google often indexes what we post. The same rules of libel and defamation apply here as in any other published medium.

Take a look at this case from 7 years ago: Jury awards $11.3 million over defamatory internet posts.

A Florida woman has been awarded $11.3 million in a defamation lawsuit against a Louisiana woman who posted messages on the Internet accusing her of being a "crook," a "con artist" and a "fraud." Legal analysts say the Sept. 19 award by a jury in Broward County, Fla. — first reported Friday by the Daily Business Review — represents the largest such judgment over postings on an Internet blog or message board

Now this is not to say that anything in this thread either is or isn't libelous or defamatory. However, I wanted to make clear that this is materially different than a bunch of people shooting the breeze at a party.

[Norm Chortleton]

You are wrong about this. RedsZone is a PUBLIC messaging board, and anyone can read what we post here. In fact, Google often indexes what we post. The same rules of libel and defamation apply here as in any other published medium.

Take a look at this case from 7 years ago: Jury awards $11.3 million over defamatory internet posts.

Now this is not to say that anything in this thread either is or isn't libelous or defamatory. However, I wanted to make clear that this is materially different than a bunch of people shooting the breeze at a party.

1. Davis is a public figure
2. I haven't seen any malice in this thread
3. I'd love to know what harm has been caused to him by anything posted here