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Thread: Batting Average and the Reds

  1. #16
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    All that matters is OBP and SLG. AVG adds nothing meaningful to the picture at the end of the day.

    .280/.340/.440 is not any better than .260/.340/.440, in fact it is slightly worse in terms of generating runs for a team. Yes, you are turning a few walks into singles and that is good, but you are also turning home runs into doubles and/or doubles into singles (else the SLG would change) and that is bad.

    Sacrificing any OBP or SLG to improve AVG would be a losing proposition.
    But the impact of adding BA will not hold everything else even. It should increase both OBP and SLG. So even if you view BA as simply a means to that end, it is desirable.

    Further, there is a practical dilemma. The Reds are not a team with a .770 OPS, it has a .720 OPS and a low team BA. If the team simply adds power, it may lose OBP. Most power hitters are not Adam Dunn. And if a team simply adds walks, it may have a relatively minor impact on runs.

    The beauty of BA is that, for most hitters, higher BA will lead to increases in the other departments as well.

    There is a cause/effect interdependence with all these stats. In a computerized world, perhaps you can just increase the OPS components and leave it at that. In the real world, it's harder to get the OPS if you don't have the BA.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-01-2013 at 11:26 PM.

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    Superdude (07-01-2013)

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  4. #17
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    AVG is irrelevant. It is a horrifically misleading statistic with two huge flaws that render it untenable as a useful metric.
    How can anything as simple and harmless as dividing hits by at bats be horrifically misleading? BA isn't the hip stat he once was, but let's not antagonize the little fella.

  5. #18
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Your last line "sacrificing any OBP or SLG to improve AVG would be a losing proposition" made no such distinction about whether two players' SLG was identical in a vacuum.

    Still, we're not talking about two different players with identical slugging. We're talking about the concept of whether it's worth trading OBP points for additional hits (which will often raise the slugging). I also don't know how you can remove average from this like it's meaningless. Slugging is made up of two things: average and ISO. You can't have ISO (or consequently slugging) without average.
    So you acknowledge that you took one sentence from my post and used it out of context to mis-characterize my post.

    My post showed why the use of AVG in a discussion is a huge mistake and will lead to erroneous conclusions. Ignoring that point will destroy your analytical reputation in a hurry.

    If you want to find the best way to build a team's offense there is absolutely no reason to use AVG as a factor, in fact any use of AVG is likely to be detrimental. If you have access to AVG and SLG (or better yet wOBA), why risk using the misleading and flawed AVG metric? There is no good reason.

  6. #19
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    So you acknowledge that you took one sentence from my post and used it out of context to mis-characterize my post.

    My post showed why the use of AVG in a discussion is a huge mistake and will lead to erroneous conclusions. Ignoring that point will destroy your analytical reputation in a hurry.

    If you want to find the best way to build a team's offense there is absolutely no reason to use AVG as a factor, in fact any use of AVG is likely to be detrimental. If you have access to AVG and SLG (or better yet wOBA), why risk using the misleading and flawed AVG metric? There is no good reason.
    No I didn't take anything out of context. You made a matter-of-fact statement that had no application on your example, nor is it always true as to the extent in which you were stating it.

    You cannot have slugging without average. No matter how many ways or how many times you try, average is the basic construct in which slugging is built. Without it, you have no slugging. You can still get on base without average, technically. But you cannot slug without it.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  7. #20
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    How can anything as simple and harmless as dividing hits by at bats be horrifically misleading? BA isn't the hip stat he once was, but let's not antagonize the little fella.
    Because AVG counts all hits the same and ignores walks. Why would you rely on a stat that has two HUGE flaws when there are better stats without those flaws?

    It leads people to overrate guys like Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter while under-rating guys like Adam Dunn and Jim Thome. AVG will lead you astray.

  8. #21
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    No I didn't take anything out of context. You made a matter-of-fact statement that had no application on your example, nor is it always true as to the extent in which you were stating it.

    You cannot have slugging without average. No matter how many ways or how many times you try, average is the basic construct in which slugging is built. Without it, you have no slugging. You can still get on base without average, technically. But you cannot slug without it.
    You can certainly have SLG without AVG. SLG is Total Bases divided by At-Bats.

    AVG is merely hits divided by at-bats and foolishly values all hits the same.

    SLG is a poor man's linear weights. SLG is not all that useful by itself, but when combined with OBP it gives amazingly accurate results very similar to wOBA.

  9. #22
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Here is a good post about the perils of using AVG: Erase Batting Average From Your Mind

  10. #23
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    You can certainly have SLG without AVG. SLG is Total Bases divided by At-Bats.

    AVG is merely hits divided by at-bats and foolishly values all hits the same.

    SLG is a poor man's linear weights. SLG is not all that useful by itself, but when combined with OBP it gives amazingly accurate results very similar to wOBA.
    How do you propose to acquire bases without getting a hit? That makes no sense... total bases is a product of actual hits in times at-bat. You can't hit for power if you don't get any hits.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Ironman92 (07-01-2013)

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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    No I didn't take anything out of context. You made a matter-of-fact statement that had no application on your example, nor is it always true as to the extent in which you were stating it.

    You cannot have slugging without average. No matter how many ways or how many times you try, average is the basic construct in which slugging is built. Without it, you have no slugging. You can still get on base without average, technically. But you cannot slug without it.
    Wasting your time.

  13. #25
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Of all the good that comes out of the newer age of stats, these kinds of discussions are mind numbing.

    No offense.

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    Tony Cloninger (07-02-2013)

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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    How do you propose to acquire bases without getting a hit? That makes no sense... total bases is a product of actual hits in times at-bat. You can't hit for power if you don't get any hits.
    Lol

  16. #27
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling View Post
    Because AVG counts all hits the same and ignores walks. Why would you rely on a stat that has two HUGE flaws when there are better stats without those flaws?
    It's not a total value stat! What you're saying is parallel to claiming that walk rate is horrifically misleading because it doesn't count hits. Batting average is worth looking at because it's an important building block of production. OPS can correlate to runs all it wants, but there's plenty more to learn if you dig a little deeper.

  17. #28
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    How do you propose to acquire bases without getting a hit? That makes no sense... total bases is a product of actual hits in times at-bat. You can't hit for power if you don't get any hits.
    Wouldn't you agree that some types of hits are more valuable than others? If so, why use a metric that ignores the difference?

    I will content myself with having planted a seed in some people's minds. Hopefully that seed will sprout and encourage a few folks to look a little deeper and seek to understand the game at a deeper level than AVG can go. I think most people here on Redszone already know this stuff anyway.

  18. #29
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    Lol
    I'm glad I'm not the only one that found that statement bizarre.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  19. #30
    KungFu Fighter AtomicDumpling's Avatar
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    Re: Batting Average and the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    It's not a total value stat! What you're saying is parallel to claiming that walk rate is horrifically misleading because it doesn't count hits. Batting average is worth looking at because it's an important building block of production. OPS can correlate to runs all it wants, but there's plenty more to learn if you dig a little deeper.
    Was anyone stating a desire to mold the team's offense around the walk rate? No? I rest my case.


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