Batting Average and the Reds

[AtomicDumpling]

But we can't discuss why we often have a low OPS...stat that shall not be named.

AVG is not a component of OPS, right?

The OPS is too low because the hitters are not generating enough extra-base hits. The team needs to hit for more power. That is the problem, if there is in fact a problem at all. The Reds have a pretty good offense, not in the last 10 days but in general the team scores enough runs to get to the playoffs.

If your team has a good OBP and a good SLG they will not be reliant on BA w/RISP to generate runs. Extra-base hits allow the team to score without first getting runners in scoring position.

BA w/RISP is a stat that is extremely susceptible to BABIP and other random statistical fluctuations and is therefore going to ebb and flow over a wide range due to factors other than the talent and skill of the hitters. The key is to get as many baserunners as possible (OBP) and hit the ball as hard as possible (SLG) so that the team is not reliant on the whims of variance in order to win baseball games.

[AtomicDumpling]

Your tone can easily be read as your are the superior knowledge on what is right and anyone doubting or denying is just some dummy to laugh at because they bring no relevance.

Making a point without being arrogant can go a long way. Reading through this thread one just about has to assume your nose is up in the air as your smugness exudes.

Thanks for the lecture on posting etiquette. Perhaps you should critique the snarky, rude, combative posts of the AVG crowd as well? Or do they get off scot free because you happen to agree with them? Your rude posts give you away.

If you are going to argue that AVG is a good metric then yes I will be smug in my disagreement. Guilty as charged. I don't put my nose in the air though, can't see the keyboard that way.

[Ironman92]

Thanks for the lecture on posting etiquette. Perhaps you should critique the snarky, rude, combative posts of the AVG crowd as well? Or do they get off scot free because you happen to agree with them? Your rude posts give you away.

I agree with you......but the way you throw it out there I just kinda want to call Ty Cobb the greatest hitter of all-time.

[Kc61]

Another way to try and make my point.

Reds are second in the league in walks and HBP.
Reds are fourth in the league in HRs and extra base hits.
Reds are eighth in the league in hits and ninth in BA.

To me, it seems like there is more room to improve in hits and BA than in the other aspects of SLG and OBP.

Probably not a very sophisticated statistical argument, but it makes my point.

[Ironman92]

Votto and Choo are making the team walk total misleading IMO.....it's not even remotely spread out like you might think from just looking at the numbers.

[Superdude]

AVG is not a component of OPS, right?

Does the OPS formula funnel off all the hits into Bill James recycling bin? They end up in there somewhere.

The key is to get as many baserunners as possible (OBP) and hit the ball as hard as possible (SLG) so that the team is not reliant on the whims of variance in order to win baseball games.

It's difficult to do this without getting hits frequently. That's all anyone has said in this thread.

[AtomicDumpling]

I agree with you......but the way you throw it out there I just kinda want to call Ty Cobb the greatest hitter of all-time.

Well Ty Cobb did have the 9th-best OPS+ of all time, so I wouldn't argue with you too much.

We did have a guy a while back ask if we thought Ichiro Suzuki and his career 112 OPS+ might be the best hitter of all time. I argued with him.

[Cooper]

This may not go along with this post, but it may....with the teams difficulty in stringing hits together -the 3rd base coach appears to be very conservative in his approach toward sending runners. Of course the other side of that is decreased injuries- decreased outs. They may have figured out what the cost benefit is on taking those chances. The OFers at GABP appear to be able to get the ball in quicker because of decreased power alleys.

I'm not clear where i stand with the issue -i do wonder if it wouldn't help alleviate some of the pressure on the offense to be a little more aggressive in sending guys.

[Plus Plus]

Here is a good post about the perils of using AVG: Erase Batting Average From Your Mind

Using a link to your own blog probably isn't the best resource to use in an argument between you and another poster.

Here's an article written by the Mets' SBNation site that makes the point that you are discussing:

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/12/...atting-average

The biggest issue with using OPS as a definitive stat is that it has a very clear issue with it- it counts the first base of any hit twice (e.g. going 1-1 with a single gives you an OBP of 1.000 and SLG of 1.000, so your OPS is 2.000, which isn't a direct representation of production). I agree with using wOBA and OPS more, but ignoring the fact that a single is more valuable than a walk in a lot of cases (e.g. runner on third, 2 out) seems closed minded in the BA discussion.

[AtomicDumpling]

Does the OPS formula funnel off all the hits into Bill James recycling bin? They end up in there somewhere.



It's difficult to do this without getting hits frequently. That's all anyone has said in this thread.

Actually people were saying it was wise to sacrifice OBP to maximize AVG. All I was saying was that AVG didn't matter and I explained why before the poo was hurled at me, forcing me to give a full explanation for the 50th time in this forum.

[Kc61]

This may not go along with this post, but it may....with the teams difficulty in stringing hits together -the 3rd base coach appears to be very conservative in his approach toward sending runners. Of course the other side of that is decreased injuries- decreased outs. They may have figured out what the cost benefit is on taking those chances. The OFers at GABP appear to be able to get the ball in quicker because of decreased power alleys.

I'm not clear where i stand with the issue -i do wonder if it wouldn't help alleviate some of the pressure on the offense to be a little more aggressive in sending guys.

I"ve noticed it. And it's not limited to GABP, it's also on the road.

On the other hand the Reds are a pretty slow team. Not too many base runners who SHOULD be taking chances. But I've noticed this and have wondered about it.

[Ironman92]

Well Ty Cobb did have the 9th-best OPS+ of all time, so I wouldn't argue with you too much.

We did have a guy a while back ask if we thought Ichiro Suzuki and his career 112 OPS+ might be the best hitter of all time. I argued with him.

If I started a thread about the 9th best measure of hitting you might. Lol

[AtomicDumpling]

Using a link to your own blog probably isn't the best resource to use in an argument between you and another poster.

Here's an article written by the Mets' SBNation site that makes the point that you are discussing:

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/12/...atting-average

The biggest issue with using OPS as a definitive stat is that it has a very clear issue with it- it counts the first base of any hit twice (e.g. going 1-1 with a single gives you an OBP of 1.000 and SLG of 1.000, so your OPS is 2.000, which isn't a direct representation of production). I agree with using wOBA and OPS more, but ignoring the fact that a single is more valuable than a walk in a lot of cases (e.g. runner on third, 2 out) seems closed minded in the BA discussion.

I linked to the post because it gave a thorough explanation of the topic at hand.

I agree that OPS is not perfect and I said so earlier more than once, but confusing the issue with AVG does far more harm than good.

Good night!

[AtomicDumpling]

If I started a thread about the 9th best measure of hitting you might. Lol

True. Especially if you said it was the 1st.

[AtomicDumpling]

This may not go along with this post, but it may....with the teams difficulty in stringing hits together -the 3rd base coach appears to be very conservative in his approach toward sending runners. Of course the other side of that is decreased injuries- decreased outs. They may have figured out what the cost benefit is on taking those chances. The OFers at GABP appear to be able to get the ball in quicker because of decreased power alleys.

I'm not clear where i stand with the issue -i do wonder if it wouldn't help alleviate some of the pressure on the offense to be a little more aggressive in sending guys.

Yes I agree. He seems to avoid any risky plays at the plate, much more so than Mark Berry did.