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Thread: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

  1. #1
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    I heard this stat during one of the broadcasts over the weekend that I thought was concerning.

    The Reds by far and away swing at more first pitches than the rest of the league. I can't remember the number, but they swing at more of them than any other team.

    On those pitches, they are hitting ~.280...which sounds good, until you hear that ranks them dead last in baseball for that stat.

    So they swing at more first pitches than any other team, and get fewer hits than any other team on those pitches.

    How big of a problem is this?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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  3. #2
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    It is a problem if it is because they are swinging at crappy pitches. With that said, I have no idea if that is what is going on or not.

  4. #3
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    IMO its a stupid stat. The only time anything registers is if an action is made on that play. If you swing and miss nothing happens, if you take a ball nothing happens, if you foul a ball off nothing happens. I think its something that shows well on TV but without more information or without proper context it doesn't give you much if any information.

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    I'm pretty sure I heard they have hands down the worst BABIP on 1st pitch swings put in play too.

    Like Doug said, I don't think there's enough info to draw any conclusions.

    I do know that when Dusty told Thom the Reds needed to be more agressive on the first pitch and Dusty said he was "shocked" when Thom told him they have swung at more first pitches than any team in baseball, that wasn't a good look for Dusty.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I'm pretty sure I heard they have hands down the worst BABIP on 1st pitch swings put in play too.

    Like Doug said, I don't think there's enough info to draw any conclusions.

    I do know that when Dusty told Thom the Reds needed to be more agressive on the first pitch and Dusty said he was "shocked" when Thom told him they have swung at more first pitches than any team in baseball, that wasn't a good look for Dusty.
    Does it shock anyone that Dusty thinks his team needs to be more aggressive and yet they are already the most aggressive team in baseball?

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    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Does it shock anyone that Dusty thinks his team needs to be more aggressive and yet they are already the most aggressive team in baseball?
    I would have less of a problem with him knowing the Reds swing at the first pitch the most and still wanting them to be more agressive than I would him not knowing how often they swing at the first pitch.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

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    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Does it shock anyone that Dusty thinks his team needs to be more aggressive and yet they are already the most aggressive team in baseball?
    They may be aggressive but they are 4th in MLB in walks.
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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    Most of the Reds do fine swinging on the first pitch. The team's average is brought down big time by both catchers Mes and Hanigan, and Phillips. These three are horrible so far this year at it.

    Hanigan .286 OPS
    Mes .482 OPS
    Phillips .556 OPS

    Everyone else who plays everyday is at or above league average. Votto, Choo and Bruce are over 1.000 OPS in that situation.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    They may be aggressive but they are 4th in MLB in walks.
    This is true. Phillips, Bruce and Cozart have had low walk rates this season. Two of those were expected. Bruce is a bit of a surprise. Left field has also walked quite a bit (Lutz excluded).

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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I'm pretty sure I heard they have hands down the worst BABIP on 1st pitch swings put in play too.

    Like Doug said, I don't think there's enough info to draw any conclusions.

    I do know that when Dusty told Thom the Reds needed to be more agressive on the first pitch and Dusty said he was "shocked" when Thom told him they have swung at more first pitches than any team in baseball, that wasn't a good look for Dusty.
    BA on first pitches will only take into account balls in play. So, if they have the worst BA on first pitches, it would make sense they are the worst for BABIP on first pitches since it's the same thing.

    edit: I take that back some. It doesn't take into account home runs. Yet home runs won't change average too much.
    Last edited by scott91575; 07-01-2013 at 07:30 PM.

  15. #11
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    BA on first pitches will only take into account balls in play. So, if they have the worst BA on first pitches, it would make sense they are the worst for BABIP on first pitches since it's the same thing.
    Adjust for HR also, but I'm sure that's not an enormous difference.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Adjust for HR also, but I'm sure that's not an enormous difference.
    Yeah, just caught that before you posted. The inability to strike out on the first pitch is the main thing though.

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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    Quote Originally Posted by scott91575 View Post
    Yeah, just caught that before you posted. The inability to strike out on the first pitch is the main thing though.
    I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Drew Stubbs did that at least once in his career
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  19. #14
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Drew Stubbs did that at least once in his career
    And if he hasn't yet it'll happen soon enough now that he's on the same team with Mark Reynolds, so those two can trade tips together.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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    Re: Reds problem with swinging at first pitches

    The game today is all about analyzing player habits. With some pitchers it is a good idea to be aggressive and swing at 1st pitches. Other pitchers not so much. The idea that you should have a general strategy of swinging at more 1st pitches regardless of the opponent is questionable. The better pitchers will be disciplined and not offer anything hittable.


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