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Thread: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

  1. #46
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    ERA is all the matters to the team. Until Bailey can translate those peripherals into a top of the rotation ERA, he ain't one of the best pitchers in the league, imo.
    I can certainly understand this argument. I don't completely agree with it because I think that more than just the pitchers performance goes into ERA (where he has pitched, against which line ups, how the weather was on a given day, his defense on a given day).

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  4. #47
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I disagree. ERA is a measure of what the run prevention unit does while the pitcher is on the mound. It's not a measure reflective of what he did by himself.

    I have no idea what a "top of the rotation" ERA is but he's transformed himself into one of the best pitchers in the league over the past calendar year and to me, it's quite refreshing. Kind of like a mojito or shoju cocktail.
    As stated before, nothing he does, he does by himself. Not even strikeouts, walks, nor home runs.

    The greatest lie of the sabermetric crowd, "xFIP measures what a pitcher can control while ERA doesn't."
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  5. #48
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    As stated before, nothing he does, he does by himself. Not even strikeouts, walks, nor home runs.

    The greatest lie of the sabermetric crowd, "xFIP measures what a pitcher can control while ERA doesn't."
    I hope most of the sabermetric crowd isn't saying that.

    He is controlling the strikeouts and the walks. The home runs, not as much, but largely they are a function of him and the ballpark.

    xFIP is a tool, not an end. It is worth looking at to compare to ERA and see if a guy is due to come back to Earth (in either direction), but you need to also be able to look at the numbers and figure out why there may be a big difference.

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  7. #49
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I feel the same as I did prior to reading your post:

    • Frazier wouldn't be on my All Star team.
    • The "tell your stats to shut up" commentary is tired

    Prediction: I'll continue to feel this way after you NEXT post too.
    1. So we agree. Frazier is not an All-Star.
    2. Please point to my "tell your stats to shut up" post. I didn't say a word about stats.

    What I did say was that no matter how the selection is made -- fan vote, bunch of dudes, eeny meeny miney moe, random draw, statistical comparison, alphabetical order, seniority -- the selection will be wrong. I like him as a player and person, but he is not worthy of the NL All-Star team this year. He is not even worthy of being considered, IMO.

  8. #50
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    As stated before, nothing he does, he does by himself. Not even strikeouts, walks, nor home runs. The greatest lie of the sabermetric crowd, "xFIP measures what a pitcher can control while ERA doesn't."
    Irony of using "lie" to describe what is essentially a strawman argument aside, the pitcher is mostly in control of what happens between the ball leaving his hand and the ball reaching the catcher's mitt or the bat. Someone and sometimes multiple someones are mostly in control of what happens between the bat hitting the ball and finding a glove, ground or fan's hand/beer cup.

    It has been shown that FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA, et al. are much better at measuring talent and predicting future ERA than ERA is. They are especially useful when looking at 1-3 season-sized samples.

    Perfect? No. Better than ERA at predicting the future and estimating talent: yes.

    Let's not let perfect be the enemy of good and because of that, resort to using not-so-good until perfect comes along.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  10. #51
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    This is so out of whack, it's laughable. Sabremetrics has forever destroyed the possibility of sensible baseball discussion.
    And this sentiment embodies the possibility of sensible baseball discussion (or frankly any kind of sensible discussion)?

    Shenanigans (spritzing anti-troll spray in your direction).
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  12. #52
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Irony of using "lie" to describe what is essentially a strawman argument aside, the pitcher is mostly in control of what happens between the ball leaving his hand and the ball reaching the catcher's mitt or the bat. Someone and sometimes multiple someones are mostly in control of what happens between the bat hitting the ball and finding a glove, ground or fan's hand/beer cup.

    It has been shown that FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA, et al. are much better at measuring talent and predicting future ERA than ERA is. They are especially useful when looking at 1-3 season-sized samples.

    Perfect? No. Better than ERA at predicting the future and estimating talent: yes.

    Let's not let perfect be the enemy of good and because of that, resort to using not-so-good until perfect comes along.
    It's funny how things that don't fit a bias become "lies" so easily these days.

    Defense independent metrics remove things from the equation that are outside of the pitcher's influence and weights things that are intrinsic to his repeatable skill set. This is a lie nowadays?

    Shenanigans.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #53
    The Future is Now Ghosts of 1990's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Horrible, horrible blog post. Not that it wasn't well written. But those are not all stars, they're saber-friendly players.
    2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9
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  14. #54
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by Ghosts of 1990 View Post
    Horrible, horrible blog post. Not that it wasn't well written. But those are not all stars, they're saber-friendly players.
    Care to explain the difference?

  15. #55
    Public Enemy #1 Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    I am really not seeing what is causing people to rage over this article.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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  17. #56
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    1. So we agree. Frazier is not an All-Star.
    Yes, I believe I said I wouldn't have chosen him.

    2. Please point to my "tell your stats to shut up" post. I didn't say a word about stats.
    It was your "like" of this post and subsequent posts dismissing the system/process/dudes.

    What I did say was that no matter how the selection is made -- fan vote, bunch of dudes, eeny meeny miney moe, random draw, statistical comparison, alphabetical order, seniority -- the selection will be wrong. I like him as a player and person, but he is not worthy of the NL All-Star team this year. He is not even worthy of being considered, IMO.
    Yes, agreed.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  18. #57
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's funny how things that don't fit a bias become "lies" so easily these days.

    Defense independent metrics remove things from the equation that are outside of the pitcher's influence and weights things that are intrinsic to his repeatable skill set. This is a lie nowadays?

    Shenanigans.
    Yes.

    Shenanigans should have it's own smiley.

    Maybe for now, this one will suffice: :bray:
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  19. #58
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    NM
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  20. #59
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    NM
    I laughed. He is good at defense though.

  21. #60
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    I don't know how you cannot go with Leake if you're going to take a Reds' pitcher. I realize he's not got the best peripherals, but bottom line he's by far been the Reds' most productive starter. I don't know where the Reds would be right now without him pitching every fifth day.

    His ERA is more than a run better than Bailey and his WHIP is extremely comparable. Leake deserves a nod more than Bailey based on bottom line production.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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