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Thread: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

  1. #61
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I don't know how you cannot go with Leake if you're going to take a Reds' pitcher. I realize he's not got the best peripherals, but bottom line he's by far been the Reds' most productive starter. I don't know where the Reds would be right now without him pitching every fifth day.

    His ERA is more than a run better than Bailey and his WHIP is extremely comparable. Leake deserves a nod more than Bailey based on bottom line production.
    Agreed.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's funny how things that don't fit a bias become "lies" so easily these days.

    Defense independent metrics remove things from the equation that are outside of the pitcher's influence and weights things that are intrinsic to his repeatable skill set. This is a lie nowadays?

    Shenanigans.
    The lie is assuming that K's, BB's and HR's are completely within the pitcher's influence, and assuming that hits and runs allowed are completely outside of a pitcher's influence. This attitude positions ERA and DIP's stats as an either/or.

    In reality, a pitcher does not have complete control over how many strikeouts, BB's or HR's he allows, nor does he lack complete control over how many hits and runs he allows. He may have more control over how many K's, BB's and HR's he gives up, but he still has significant control over how many hits and runs he gives up, and there are limits to the control he has over K's, BB's and HR's.

    My argument is that peripherals alone don't tell all we can learn about a pitcher in order to evaluate him. The elements in ERA that are missing from xFIP and the like are very informative and need to be included as well.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    I don't know how you cannot go with Leake if you're going to take a Reds' pitcher. I realize he's not got the best peripherals, but bottom line he's by far been the Reds' most productive starter. I don't know where the Reds would be right now without him pitching every fifth day.

    His ERA is more than a run better than Bailey and his WHIP is extremely comparable. Leake deserves a nod more than Bailey based on bottom line production.
    My argument against Leake is that he hasn't proved himself as an All-Star caliber pitcher over a long enough period of time. But I am in the minority on this issue.

    I emphasis the All-Star part of the All-Star game. The way I choose my team, is I find players who have been one of the best at their position for a few years at least. Then I see how they are performing this year. If they are still in the All-Star range, even if they aren't statistically the best, they make my team. I only pick rookies or guys have great first halfs of a season for the first time, if there is no one else to pick.

    I want as many true All-Stars on my team, not just guys who are on a roll, like Leake.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The lie is assuming that K's, BB's and HR's are completely within the pitcher's influence, and assuming that hits and runs allowed are completely outside of a pitcher's influence. This attitude positions ERA and DIP's stats as an either/or.

    In reality, a pitcher does not have complete control over how many strikeouts, BB's or HR's he allows, nor does he lack complete control over how many hits and runs he allows. He may have more control over how many K's, BB's and HR's he gives up, but he still has significant control over how many hits and runs he gives up, and there are limits to the control he has over K's, BB's and HR's.

    My argument is that peripherals alone don't tell all we can learn about a pitcher in order to evaluate him. The elements in ERA that are missing from xFIP and the like are very informative and need to be included as well.
    This is a very common narrative this, let's completely ignore how BABIP regresses version of pitcher controlling hit rate means defensive independent metrics are bunk and era is awesome narrative. But the elephants in the closet are that a pitcher's k and BB rates are very stable and there are a precious few arms that have consistently abnormally low babip. Want to argue that babip isn't precise enough to capture a pitcher's true ability to control hits? Well, then one can't trumpet era as any kind of reflection of pitcher skill.

    The elements that are missing from FIP are the things that would cause Leake and Arroyo's era to dramatically increase simply from moving them from pitching in front of the reds defense and plopping them on the mound in front of the Astros' defense.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    This is a very common narrative this, let's completely ignore how BABIP regresses version of pitcher controlling hit rate means defensive independent metrics are bunk and era is awesome narrative. But the elephants in the closet are that a pitcher's k and BB rates are very stable and there are a precious few arms that have consistently abnormally low babip. Want to argue that babip isn't precise enough to capture a pitcher's true ability to control hits? Well, then one can't trumpet era as any kind of reflection of pitcher skill.

    The elements that are missing from FIP are the things that would cause Leake and Arroyo's era to dramatically increase simply from moving them from pitching in front of the reds defense and plopping them on the mound in front of the Astros' defense.
    Sticking to early, incorrect, erroneous, illogical narratives that many amateur sabermetricians drew from Voros' first, very limited discovery, is just as stubborn and wrongheaded as sticking to only baseball card stats.

    We have learned much about BABIP and DIPs since then, and as more and more days separate us from Voros' discovery, I am sure we will learn even more.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Sticking to early, incorrect, erroneous, illogical narratives that many amateur sabermetricians drew from Voros' first, very limited discovery, is just as stubborn and wrongheaded as sticking to only baseball card stats.
    That may be but it is also an irrelevant statement in the ontext of this thread.

    We have learned much about BABIP and DIPs since then, and as more and more days separate us from Voros' discovery, I am sure we will learn even more.
    This is an empty platitude that incorrectly implies that its been demonstrated that pitchers can control the fate of a batted ball at will.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I disagree. ERA is a measure of what the run prevention unit does while the pitcher is on the mound. It's not a measure reflective of what he did by himself.



    I have no idea what a "top of the rotation" ERA is but he's transformed himself into one of the best pitchers in the league over the past calendar year and to me, it's quite refreshing. Kind of like a mojito or shoju cocktail.
    Run Prevention Unit?

    "Hey, can I get a new Run Prevention Unit over to GABP? Our existing one is on the fritz. Oh and while you're at it, bring over a new run creation unit -we could use an upgrade".
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    This is an empty platitude that incorrectly implies that its been demonstrated that pitchers can control the fate of a batted ball at will.
    I politely suggest you read up on the lastest studies on this matter.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I politely suggest you read up on the lastest studies on this matter.
    I politely suggest you actually read up on the subject and also accurately characterize my position.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #70
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    My argument against Leake is that he hasn't proved himself as an All-Star caliber pitcher over a long enough period of time. But I am in the minority on this issue.

    I emphasis the All-Star part of the All-Star game. The way I choose my team, is I find players who have been one of the best at their position for a few years at least. Then I see how they are performing this year. If they are still in the All-Star range, even if they aren't statistically the best, they make my team. I only pick rookies or guys have great first halfs of a season for the first time, if there is no one else to pick.

    I want as many true All-Stars on my team, not just guys who are on a roll, like Leake.
    What he's done previously should have nothing to do with it. In theory, the all-star game is supposed to be about rewarding success for the current season. I realize in practice that's not often how it works. But that's supposed to be the concept.

    What he did previously shouldn't matter. Right now, he's been one of the more productive pitchers in baseball.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Rany Jazayerli and Joe Sheehan were talking about this on their podcast this week. Sheehan thinks a player should have more of a track record before being considered an All Star. Jazayerli thinks the opposite. I'm in the Sheehan camp. It's the All Star game. Not "guys with a hot streak in a small sample" game. Jack Armstrong started the 1990 game for the NL and didn't even make the postseason rotation. He wasn't good. He had one half of a good season. A system that rewards those type of seasons is flawed, IMO.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/24/14. I promise.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    The numbers disagree with my intuition. Therefore the numbers must be wrong.

    Yawn.

    Personally, I find the idea of WAR based All-Stars silly too. But that's just because I think it should be a game for the best, most popular players in the game, not just those who have had the best 3 months.

    Brandon Phillips should be an All-Star, but it's not because he's so clearly out-performed his peers in 2013. On that front, Matt Carpenter is clearly the leader in the NL. After that, you're comparing Phillips with a set of guys who are fairly similar -- but he should make it above them based on a combination of track record and star power.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-05-2013 at 02:17 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The numbers disagree with my intuition. Therefore the numbers must be wrong.

    Yawn.

    Personally, I find the idea of WAR based All-Stars silly too. But that's just because I think it should be a game for the best, most popular players in the game, not just those who have had the best 3 months.

    Brandon Phillips should be an All-Star, but it's not because he's so clearly out-performed his peers in 2013. On that front, Matt Carpenter is clearly the leader in the NL. After that, you're comparing Phillips with a set of guys who are fairly similar -- but he should make it above them based on a combination of track record and star power.
    I agree, but if Carpenter has a good 2014 and finishes this year strong then you've gotta put him on. He's been fantastic, but it's not been long enough yet, IMO.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/24/14. I promise.

  19. #74
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by gilpdawg View Post
    Rany Jazayerli and Joe Sheehan were talking about this on their podcast this week. Sheehan thinks a player should have more of a track record before being considered an All Star. Jazayerli thinks the opposite. I'm in the Sheehan camp. It's the All Star game. Not "guys with a hot streak in a small sample" game. Jack Armstrong started the 1990 game for the NL and didn't even make the postseason rotation. He wasn't good. He had one half of a good season. A system that rewards those type of seasons is flawed, IMO.
    Bryan LaHair was an All-Star last season. He wasn't even starting on the Cubs three weeks later. He doesn't have a job in this country this season and not really doing much in Japan either.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Bryan LaHair was an All-Star last season. He wasn't even starting on the Cubs three weeks later. He doesn't have a job in this country this season and not really doing much in Japan either.
    Great example. Can't believe I forgot that.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/24/14. I promise.


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