757690 (07-04-2013)
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I hope most of the sabermetric crowd isn't saying that.
He is controlling the strikeouts and the walks. The home runs, not as much, but largely they are a function of him and the ballpark.
xFIP is a tool, not an end. It is worth looking at to compare to ERA and see if a guy is due to come back to Earth (in either direction), but you need to also be able to look at the numbers and figure out why there may be a big difference.
1. So we agree. Frazier is not an All-Star.
2. Please point to my "tell your stats to shut up" post. I didn't say a word about stats.
What I did say was that no matter how the selection is made -- fan vote, bunch of dudes, eeny meeny miney moe, random draw, statistical comparison, alphabetical order, seniority -- the selection will be wrong. I like him as a player and person, but he is not worthy of the NL All-Star team this year. He is not even worthy of being considered, IMO.
Irony of using "lie" to describe what is essentially a strawman argument aside, the pitcher is mostly in control of what happens between the ball leaving his hand and the ball reaching the catcher's mitt or the bat. Someone and sometimes multiple someones are mostly in control of what happens between the bat hitting the ball and finding a glove, ground or fan's hand/beer cup.
It has been shown that FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA, et al. are much better at measuring talent and predicting future ERA than ERA is. They are especially useful when looking at 1-3 season-sized samples.
Perfect? No. Better than ERA at predicting the future and estimating talent: yes.
Let's not let perfect be the enemy of good and because of that, resort to using not-so-good until perfect comes along.
Edd Roush (07-05-2013)
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
It's funny how things that don't fit a bias become "lies" so easily these days.
Defense independent metrics remove things from the equation that are outside of the pitcher's influence and weights things that are intrinsic to his repeatable skill set. This is a lie nowadays?
Shenanigans.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Horrible, horrible blog post. Not that it wasn't well written. But those are not all stars, they're saber-friendly players.
2009 Attendance Record: 3-5 2010 Attendance Record: 2-9 2015 Attendance Record: 2-0
2011 Attendance Record: 3-4 2012 Attendance Record: 3-4
2013 Attendance Record: 5-2 2014 Attendance Record: 3-1
I am really not seeing what is causing people to rage over this article.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
Raisor (07-04-2013)
Yes, I believe I said I wouldn't have chosen him.
It was your "like" of this post and subsequent posts dismissing the system/process/dudes.2. Please point to my "tell your stats to shut up" post. I didn't say a word about stats.
Yes, agreed.What I did say was that no matter how the selection is made -- fan vote, bunch of dudes, eeny meeny miney moe, random draw, statistical comparison, alphabetical order, seniority -- the selection will be wrong. I like him as a player and person, but he is not worthy of the NL All-Star team this year. He is not even worthy of being considered, IMO.
NM
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I don't know how you cannot go with Leake if you're going to take a Reds' pitcher. I realize he's not got the best peripherals, but bottom line he's by far been the Reds' most productive starter. I don't know where the Reds would be right now without him pitching every fifth day.
His ERA is more than a run better than Bailey and his WHIP is extremely comparable. Leake deserves a nod more than Bailey based on bottom line production.
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