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Thread: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

  1. #31
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If there was room for one Red's pitcher, would it be Bailey, Latos or Leake?
    None. Latos maybe, but there are too many clear choice in the league better than him.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  3. #32
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Bailey has underperformed his peripherals (WAR) his entire career. Just like Arroyo has overperformed his peripherals his whole career. I think with those two, we have reached the point where we can say their ERA, WHIP, Etc, are a better reflection of their true talent level than their peripherals. Basically, both are very nice middle rotation pitchers.
    That can be taken many ways. How about this...

    Homer Bailey is the _______ best starting pitcher in baseball. A range of 5 or so would be fine.

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    RedEye (07-04-2013)

  5. #33
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    The real embarrassing part here is the outright refusal of some posters to engage with what the article is trying to say. The authors never said theirs was the perfect system; they laid out a set of criteria and explained how they used them. Even if you disagree with their conclusions, you should probably give then the benefit of the doubt before snarkily dismissing their selections as "ruining discussion."
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  6. #34
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    None. Latos maybe, but there are too many clear choice in the league better than him.
    Using which criteria?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  7. #35
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Dang Norm...you just got bullet-pointed!!!!!

    Frazier wouldn't be on my All Star team either. But I certainly am not offended by the thought that he was in the conversation, and actually picked after much debate.
    Yes. I thought the decision-making process was interesting.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  8. #36
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Haven't read the article yet, but here is my shot at a 32 man roster (20 Position players and 12 pitchers).

    C - Molina, Posey
    1B - Votto, Goldschmidt, Freeman
    2B - Carpenter, Scutaro
    SS - Segura, Desmond (Tulo on DL)
    3B - Wright, Alvarez
    OF - Cargo, Cuddyer, Gomez, Beltran, Brown, McCutchen, Choo, Schierholtz, Puig
    P - Harvey, Fernandez, Wainwright, Lee, Leake, Kershaw, Locke, Cashner, Strasburg, Zimmerman, Grilli, Kimbrel
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #37
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    This is so out of whack, it's laughable. Sabremetrics has forever destroyed the possibility of sensible baseball discussion.
    Wow... get all Giovanni Maria Tolosani why don't cha?

  10. #38
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    None. Latos maybe, but there are too many clear choice in the league better than him.
    My mind was semi-blown when I checked this.

    To me, there's a good argument saying Homer Bailey has been amongst the top-5 starting pitchers in the NL over the past 365 days:

    5th: IP
    11th: K/9
    12th: BB/9
    11th: HR/9
    5th: FIP
    6th: xFIP
    16th: ERA

    Even though we're a good three years removed from the "lost decade," this is still a bit hard to believe that this is OUR Homer Bailey.

    Latos ain't so bad either.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    dougdirt (07-04-2013)

  12. #39
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Bailey has underperformed his peripherals (WAR) his entire career. Just like Arroyo has overperformed his peripherals his whole career. I think with those two, we have reached the point where we can say their ERA, WHIP, Etc, are a better reflection of their true talent level than their peripherals. Basically, both are very nice middle rotation pitchers.
    I just don't know if that is true with Bailey. In 2009 he was basically even. In 2012 his ERA was better than his FIP. Right now, Homer Bailey has the lowest strand rate he has had since 2008. I don't expect that to continue. Do you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I just don't know if that is true with Bailey. In 2009 he was basically even. In 2012 his ERA was better than his FIP. Right now, Homer Bailey has the lowest strand rate he has had since 2008. I don't expect that to continue. Do you?
    I was going to do a blog post the other day (shameless plug) about how Bailey's peripherals were ace-like, but the no hitter made me hold off. I didn't want people to think that the piece was reactionary to the no no. I may revisit it later this year if it holds true.

    I think he's a top 5 or 10 guy in the NL right now.
    Last edited by gilpdawg; 07-04-2013 at 04:38 PM.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/24/14. I promise.

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    Nasty_Boy (07-05-2013)

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    My mind was semi-blown when I checked this.

    To me, there's a good argument saying Homer Bailey has been amongst the top-5 starting pitchers in the NL over the past 365 days:

    5th: IP
    11th: K/9
    12th: BB/9
    11th: HR/9
    5th: FIP
    6th: xFIP
    16th: ERA

    Even though we're a good three years removed from the "lost decade," this is still a bit hard to believe that this is OUR Homer Bailey.

    Latos ain't so bad either.
    ERA is all the matters to the team. Until Bailey can translate those peripherals into a top of the rotation ERA, he ain't one of the best pitchers in the league, imo.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #42
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Bailey and Latos would be a toss-up as a game 1 play-off starter (I lean toward Homer), but I think the All Star game should weigh actual production over theoretical or predicted production, so Leake would get the nod from me.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  17. #43
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    ERA is all the matters to the team. Until Bailey can translate those peripherals into a top of the rotation ERA, he ain't one of the best pitchers in the league, imo.
    There are factors in play there that aren't necessarily under his control. Plus, his ERA is sort of inflated by that one disaster start vs. MIL.

    Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk HD
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/24/14. I promise.

  18. #44
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by gilpdawg View Post
    There are factors in play there that aren't necessarily under his control. Plus, his ERA is sort of inflated by that one disaster start vs. MIL.

    Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk HD
    There are enough guys whose ERA isn't inflated by anything to make that a moot point.

    And nothing a pitcher does is truely under his control. The results of everything he does depends on the actions of others. Unless he is pitching in his backyard against the garage wall, and the results are all in his head
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  19. #45
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    ERA is all the matters to the team.
    I disagree. ERA is a measure of what the run prevention unit does while the pitcher is on the mound. It's not a measure reflective of what he did by himself.

    Until Bailey can translate those peripherals into a top of the rotation ERA, he ain't one of the best pitchers in the league, imo.
    I have no idea what a "top of the rotation" ERA is but he's transformed himself into one of the best pitchers in the league over the past calendar year and to me, it's quite refreshing. Kind of like a mojito or shoju cocktail.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    Nasty_Boy (07-05-2013), Tom Servo (07-04-2013)


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