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Thread: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

  1. #91
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    In football, they call all the offensive players on the field during a field goal attempt, "the field goal unit." Every player plays an important part, but the kicker is the one who gets credit for the points, and rightfully so.

    Just because others are involved in preventing runs on defense, doesn't mean that the pitcher shouldn't be the guy held most responsible for prevention or lack of prevention of runs.

    Yes, the entire defense is the run prevention unit, but the person who is repsonsible for most of it is the guy who starts each pitch holding the ball on the mound. Claiming that because others are involved in run prevention, we should ignore ERA, or diminish its importance, is a classic over reaction that many amateur saber guys make.
    The pitcher is mostly responsible for his ERA, but how much of it he is responsible for depends on several things.

    Where does he pitch at (Petco and GABP are awfully different)?
    How many bats does he miss (more strikeouts means less chances for other things to come into play such as the ballpark or the defense)?
    How is his defense, and in particular his infield or outfield defense depending on whether he is a groundball or flyball guy?

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  3. #92
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    I never hear guys complaining that QB Rating is a bad statistic because of where the game is played, who is playing WR, etc. Just sayin'.

  4. #93
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    I never hear guys complaining that QB Rating is a bad statistic because of where the game is played, who is playing WR, etc. Just sayin'.
    You haven't heard about people talking about how guys that play in a dome have it easier and better numbers? I certainly have.

    I have heard people bring up how Eli Manning is better than his numbers because of the wind tunnel that is in Giants stadium.

    I have also heard a thousand times about how good a QB would be if he had better receivers.

  5. #94
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You haven't heard about people talking about how guys that play in a dome have it easier and better numbers? I certainly have.

    I have heard people bring up how Eli Manning is better than his numbers because of the wind tunnel that is in Giants stadium.

    I have also heard a thousand times about how good a QB would be if he had better receivers.
    I've heard those things mentioned, because they are obvious. That isn't what I said. I said football fans don't automatically dismiss QBR and call it a bad stat because of those factors the way baseball fans do ERA.

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    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    In football, they call all the offensive players on the field during a field goal attempt, "the field goal unit." Every player plays an important part, but the kicker is the one who gets credit for the points, and rightfully so.

    Just because others are involved in preventing runs on defense, doesn't mean that the pitcher shouldn't be the guy held most responsible for prevention or lack of prevention of runs.
    The kicker is an offensive player.

    The pitcher is a defensive player.

    Yes, the entire defense is the run prevention unit, but the person who is repsonsible for most of it is the guy who starts each pitch holding the ball on the mound. Claiming that because others are involved in run prevention, we should ignore ERA,
    This is a strawman argument.

    or diminish its importance, is a classic over reaction that many amateur saber guys make.
    Defense Independent metrics are better at predicting future ERA than ERA. They also measure more of what the pitcher does removed from defense, park, randomness and other noise. Mike Leake is a pretty good example of this.

    YMMV but to me, one's argument is significantly lessened when they have to lie about what the other side is saying and resort to ad hominem attacks like "amateur saber guys" - as opposed to what..."pro saber guys"...I already knew I didn't get paid to read Fangraphs.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  7. #96
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    I've heard those things mentioned, because they are obvious. That isn't what I said. I said football fans don't automatically dismiss QBR and call it a bad stat because of those factors the way baseball fans do ERA.
    They should.

    Maybe they should also consider how good or bad the line is in front of the QB. A QB who can stay in the pocket is going to do better than a QB on the move, right?

  8. #97
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I already knew I didn't get paid to read Fangraphs.
    Does someone get paid for it? Where can I put in my application?

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    I never hear guys complaining that QB Rating is a bad statistic because of where the game is played, who is playing WR, etc. Just sayin'.
    I've heard plenty of people complain about QB rating. That was the impetus for that ESPN QBR thing. There's advanced metrics in football too. Football Outsiders.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 10/17/14. I promise.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    I never hear guys complaining that QB Rating is a bad statistic because of where the game is played, who is playing WR, etc. Just sayin'.
    Start a thread about it on ORG and it'd be guaranteed to turn into a multi-page argument.
    "I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN

  12. #100
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    This is so out of whack, it's laughable. Sabremetrics has forever destroyed the possibility of sensible baseball discussion.
    Is this a joke post?
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

  13. #101
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Claiming that because others are involved in run prevention, we should ignore ERA, or diminish its importance, is a classic over reaction that many amateur saber guys make.
    This is a classic misstatement often made by those who don't understand sabermetrics and reject metrics based upon mistaken notions about what they measure.

    ERA is important as a basic, blunt measure of team run prevention. Saber guys take issue when someone interprets it to mean something it doesn't or claims saber guys believe things about era that they don't.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by New York Red View Post
    This is so out of whack, it's laughable. Sabremetrics has forever destroyed the possibility of sensible baseball discussion.
    I don't agree but I laughed out loud. I can see your frustration while typing that sentence. I think sabermetrics adds to the discussion, but sometimes it just adds more trees to observe in the forest.
    "Last week I helped my friend stay put. It's a lot easier'n helpin' 'em move. I just went over to his house and made sure that he did not start to load **** into a truck."

  15. #103
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by gilpdawg View Post
    I've heard plenty of people complain about QB rating. That was the impetus for that ESPN QBR thing. There's advanced metrics in football too. Football Outsiders.
    Probably a discussion for another forum, but there's also Pro Football Focus. Really interesting site IMO.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  16. #104
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    In football, they call all the offensive players on the field during a field goal attempt, "the field goal unit." Every player plays an important part, but the kicker is the one who gets credit for the points, and rightfully so.
    .
    The team gets the points, full stop. Once we start talking about credit, it's a fair conversation. I don't think anybody disagrees that the pitcher deserves the most credit for run prevention. But why should that fact mean we should pretend like be should get all of it? Can't we live in a world where pitchers get more credit than everybody else but where we still account for the fact that the are other factors responsible too and that it doesn't really serve any purpose to over simplify given that is isn't terribly difficult to look at it both ways?

    For example, using a 3.50 ERA vs a 3.00 ERA in 100ish IP to suggest that one pitcher has obviously been more dominant just doesn't really hold up. It may be true in this case that Latos has been notably better than better than Bailey so far, but it would not be at all unusual to find on closer inspection that the 3.50 ERA guy has actually pitched better.

    Amateur saber types like me get bugged when that ERA gap is treated like obvious, undeniable truth when differences like that are quite often meaningless as indications of gaps in performance in practice -- and it doesn't take a lot of fancy math and weird abbreviations to find those cases.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-07-2013 at 05:22 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  17. #105
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    YMMV but to me, one's argument is significantly lessened when they have to lie about what the other side is saying and resort to ad hominem attacks like "amateur saber guys" - as opposed to what..."pro saber guys"...I already knew I didn't get paid to read Fangraphs.
    I apologize for the misunderstanding. I was not referring to you, nor anyone else on Redszone with the "amateur saber guys" line. We are all just Reds fans with a wide array of opinions. None of us are saber guys. We all (especially you) have shown the ability to understand multiple sides of an argument and discussion.

    I was referring to the guys who write for websites and blogs, who call themselves saber guys, but really aren't very good at it. I grew up on Bill James, and love Tango and Cameron. What makes those guys special is that they aren't ever concerned with proving that their right, or that stats are better than watching the game. They are only concerned with asking tough questions and seeing if what we assume to be true, matches with the evidence we have. For me, that what advanced stats are about.

    Again, my apologies, I would never insult you by calling you, or anyone on this board, "an amateur saber guy."
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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