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Thread: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

  1. #106
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The team gets the points, full stop. Once we start talking about credit, it's a fair conversation. I don't think anybody disagrees that the pitcher deserves the most credit for run prevention. But why should that fact mean we should pretend like be should get all of it? Can't we live in a world where pitchers get more credit than everybody else but where we still account for the fact that the are other factors responsible too and that it doesn't really serve any purpose to over simplify given that is isn't terribly difficult to look at it both ways?

    For example, using a 3.50 ERA vs a 3.00 ERA in 100ish IP to suggest that one pitcher has obviously been more dominant just doesn't really hold up. It may be true in this case that Latos has been notably better than better than Bailey so far, but it would not be at all unusual to find on closer inspection that the 3.50 ERA guy has actually pitched better.

    Amateur saber types like me get bugged when that ERA gap is treated like obvious, undeniable truth when differences like that are quite often meaningless as indications of gaps in performance in practice -- and it doesn't take a lot of fancy math and weird abbreviations to find those cases.
    This is where we disagree.

    First, I don't like ERA for some reasons, but they are not the reason most guys don't like it. I think the way MLB assigns runs to a pitcher is wrongheaded, and I don't trust official scorers. So, technically, I do agree that it is possible for a 3.5 ERA guy to have pitched better than a 3.0 ERA guy over 100 IP's. However, it would be really easy to go over the runs scored in each game and see if that is true.

    But I don't agree that a guy with a 3.5 ERA could have pitched better than a 3.0 ERA guy, if all the runs were accurately assigned to each pitcher. More importantly, I find it nearly impossible to argue that a pitcher with a 3.5 ERA has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.

    The goal of playing the season is to get into the playoffs. A team does that by winning as many games as possible. So winning games is the ultimate goal. A team does this by scoring more runs in each game than they allow in each game. Period.

    All that matters in this game is runs. And it doesn't matter how they are scored. The primary, nay, the sole goal of a pitcher, is to prevent runs from scoring. How well they do that is how we evaluate them. I don't care what park they pitch in, what defense they have behind them, what weather conditions they pitch in, who they pitch against, who was umping the game, how many lucky hits were hit against them, None of that matters. All that matters is how effective they were at preventing runs from being scored. That is their value to the team.

    A good pitcher takes advantage of all those advantages, and decreases the effect of the disadvantages. Arroyo benefits from a good defense behind him, but if he's a good pitcher, he finds a way to pitch around a bad defense, if he has one. Same with ballpark, same with "lucky" hits.

    To the point at hand.

    Bailey has never been able to minimize the damage of the "lucky" hits against him over a full season. Despite good peripherals, he's never been able to lower his ERA below 3.5. Until he does, in my mind, he can never be considered one of the best pitchers in baseball, no matter how many K's he has, no matter how many no hitters he has.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  4. #107
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    One thing I found my self wondering today was the following. Figured I'd put it here as the "who gets credit" debate has reared its head.

    It seems guys get good "credit" when they ground a base hit up the middle or thru a hole in the defense. But when the next guy in order hits the ball just as hard to the shortstop and it becomes a 6 4 3, he gets crucified.

    Is it skill to hit the ball up the middle or thru a hole as opposed to the shortstop?

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    One thing I found my self wondering today was the following. Figured I'd put it here as the "who gets credit" debate has reared its head.

    It seems guys get good "credit" when they ground a base hit up the middle or thru a hole in the defense. But when the next guy in order hits the ball just as hard to the shortstop and it becomes a 6 4 3, he gets crucified.

    Is it skill to hit the ball up the middle or thru a hole as opposed to the shortstop?
    Great point, I had the same exact thought today when Cozart hit into that DP. It's obviously a skill to be able to go the other way or pull the ball. But obviously if anyone could routinely place the ball in holes, it would lead to much higher BABIP.

    The best you can hope for is to hit the ball hard consistently, and it will lead to more hits.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  6. #109
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    This is where we disagree.

    First, I don't like ERA for some reasons, but they are not the reason most guys don't like it. I think the way MLB assigns runs to a pitcher is wrongheaded, and I don't trust official scorers. So, technically, I do agree that it is possible for a 3.5 ERA guy to have pitched better than a 3.0 ERA guy over 100 IP's. However, it would be really easy to go over the runs scored in each game and see if that is true.

    But I don't agree that a guy with a 3.5 ERA could have pitched better than a 3.0 ERA guy, if all the runs were accurately assigned to each pitcher. More importantly, I find it nearly impossible to argue that a pitcher with a 3.5 ERA has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.

    The goal of playing the season is to get into the playoffs. A team does that by winning as many games as possible. So winning games is the ultimate goal. A team does this by scoring more runs in each game than they allow in each game. Period.

    All that matters in this game is runs. And it doesn't matter how they are scored. The primary, nay, the sole goal of a pitcher, is to prevent runs from scoring. How well they do that is how we evaluate them. I don't care what park they pitch in, what defense they have behind them, what weather conditions they pitch in, who they pitch against, who was umping the game, how many lucky hits were hit against them, None of that matters. All that matters is how effective they were at preventing runs from being scored. That is their value to the team.

    A good pitcher takes advantage of all those advantages, and decreases the effect of the disadvantages. Arroyo benefits from a good defense behind him, but if he's a good pitcher, he finds a way to pitch around a bad defense, if he has one. Same with ballpark, same with "lucky" hits.

    To the point at hand.

    Bailey has never been able to minimize the damage of the "lucky" hits against him over a full season. Despite good peripherals, he's never been able to lower his ERA below 3.5. Until he does, in my mind, he can never be considered one of the best pitchers in baseball, no matter how many K's he has, no matter how many no hitters he has.
    So if Bailey's defense plays like crap behind him, while Latos gets great performances, it's his Bailey's fault. Yeah, we disagree. You made the right point above. Teams score runs and allow them and teams win and lose games. ERA is an measure of what mostly, sort-of happened in terms of a TEAM allowing runs while a guy was pitching and after he got taken out sometimes. During that time, he is the most influential single individual. But to not only ignore the role of defense but to suggest that it is a pitcher's responsibility to make up for his teammates deficiencies is just silly. Why are we giving a single, cobbled-together statistic so much weight? It's not a divining rod of wins and losses.

    This is what drives statistics people nuts. We get called all kinds of names and accused of never watching games simply for using new-fangled stats to try to measure things more precisely; meanwhile, the old-school crowd trots out old-school stats as if they were part of God's perfect creation and not just something made up in a less sophisticated attempt to measure something pretty complex.

    I can get behind the baseball is poetry-not-math arguments -- just a completely different way of enjoying the game. But the "the stats I grew up with are better because of pixie dust and fairy tales" arguments drive me absolutely bonkers.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-07-2013 at 10:35 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  8. #110
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    This is where we disagree.

    First, I don't like ERA for some reasons, but they are not the reason most guys don't like it. I think the way MLB assigns runs to a pitcher is wrongheaded, and I don't trust official scorers. So, technically, I do agree that it is possible for a 3.5 ERA guy to have pitched better than a 3.0 ERA guy over 100 IP's. However, it would be really easy to go over the runs scored in each game and see if that is true.

    But I don't agree that a guy with a 3.5 ERA could have pitched better than a 3.0 ERA guy, if all the runs were accurately assigned to each pitcher. More importantly, I find it nearly impossible to argue that a pitcher with a 3.5 ERA has been one of the best pitchers in baseball.

    The goal of playing the season is to get into the playoffs. A team does that by winning as many games as possible. So winning games is the ultimate goal. A team does this by scoring more runs in each game than they allow in each game. Period.

    All that matters in this game is runs. And it doesn't matter how they are scored. The primary, nay, the sole goal of a pitcher, is to prevent runs from scoring. How well they do that is how we evaluate them. I don't care what park they pitch in, what defense they have behind them, what weather conditions they pitch in, who they pitch against, who was umping the game, how many lucky hits were hit against them, None of that matters. All that matters is how effective they were at preventing runs from being scored. That is their value to the team.

    A good pitcher takes advantage of all those advantages, and decreases the effect of the disadvantages. Arroyo benefits from a good defense behind him, but if he's a good pitcher, he finds a way to pitch around a bad defense, if he has one. Same with ballpark, same with "lucky" hits.

    To the point at hand.

    Bailey has never been able to minimize the damage of the "lucky" hits against him over a full season. Despite good peripherals, he's never been able to lower his ERA below 3.5. Until he does, in my mind, he can never be considered one of the best pitchers in baseball, no matter how many K's he has, no matter how many no hitters he has.
    If all that matters is runs, then you've just made another argument against earned run average. We only care about runs.bbut really, the pitcher doesn't get blamed for an error that leads to possibly a bushel of runs but he gets complete credit for the run prevention effect of great defense behind him?

    Shenanigans.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    If all that matters is runs, then you've just made another argument against earned run average. We only care about runs.bbut really, the pitcher doesn't get blamed for an error that leads to possibly a bushel of runs but he gets complete credit for the run prevention effect of great defense behind him?

    Shenanigans.
    I already addressed that. I said that ERA has problems, and that was one of them.

    Shenanigans for not reading my post completely.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    So if Bailey's defense plays like crap behind him, while Latos gets great performances, it's his Bailey's fault. Yeah, we disagree. You made the right point above. Teams score runs and allow them and teams win and lose games. ERA is an measure of what mostly, sort-of happened in terms of a TEAM allowing runs while a guy was pitching and after he got taken out sometimes. During that time, he is the most influential single individual. But to not only ignore the role of defense but to suggest that it is a pitcher's responsibility to make up for his teammates deficiencies is just silly. Why are we giving a single, cobbled-together statistic so much weight? It's not a divining rod of wins and losses.

    This is what drives statistics people nuts. We get called all kinds of names and accused of never watching games simply for using new-fangled stats to try to measure things more precisely; meanwhile, the old-school crowd trots out old-school stats as if they were part of God's perfect creation and not just something made up in a less sophisticated attempt to measure something pretty complex.

    I can get behind the baseball is poetry-not-math arguments -- just a completely different way of enjoying the game. But the "the stats I grew up with are better because of pixie dust and fairy tales" arguments drive me absolutely bonkers.
    You've misconstrued my point, but I don't want to get into a detailed point by point debate.

    Instead, I will focus on the main question pertinent to this threat.

    Has Homer Bailey been one of the best pitchers in the NL this year?

    I argue that any pitcher that has a 3.5 ERA cannot be considered one of the best pitchers in the NL, when there are so many others who have much better ERA's.

    Others in this thread have argued that since he has some of the best peripherals in the league, that he has been one of the best pitchers. I think that peripherals are great at predicting future success, and isolating skills that are important for a pitcher to succeed.

    However, in terms of actual production, in terms of who has been a better, more effective pitcher, I point mostly to ERA. One can argue that there were other factors involved in determining that ERA, which is true, but that is true for everything. The truly best pitchers in the league are able to overcome those other factors, whatever they may be, and consistently post elite ERA's. Homer Bailey has yet to become one of those pitchers.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I already addressed that. I said that ERA has problems, and that was one of them.

    Shenanigans for not reading my post completely.
    No. Shenanigans for saying all that matters is runs AND then choosing ERA as your stat of preference. You argue defense matters in one breath and decry metrics that attempt to isolate its effects on pitcher performance.

    If all that truly matters to you is runs concerning understanding the game, then the box score tells the complete story for you. As boxes go, it's a very, very small one that if it were a minor leaguer, has an obvious low ceiling.

    So ya, shenanigans on steroids.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #114
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    However, in terms of actual production, in terms of who has been a better, more effective pitcher, I point mostly to ERA. One can argue that there were other factors involved in determining that ERA, which is true, but that is true for everything. The truly best pitchers in the league are able to overcome those other factors, whatever they may be, and consistently post elite ERA's. Homer Bailey has yet to become one of those pitchers.
    But peripherals also measure actual production, just different parts of it. All ERA tells you is that while a pitcher was on the mound, a certain number of "earned runs" crossed the plate per 9 innings. There are a lot of other variables in there -- I'm sure I don't have to enumerate them to you.

    Homer has not posted consistently elite ERA's for years because he hasn't been an elite level pitcher for that long. In 2013, though, his ERA lags behind the many other stats that suggest he has now attained that level.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    BTW, one call isolate exactly when Walt transitioned the Reds roster from defensive suckitude to one of the best defenses in the majors by looking at Aroyo's career as a Red.

    ERA is a crappy way to examine how a pitcher influences the only thing that matters.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    No. Shenanigans for saying all that matters is runs AND then choosing ERA as your stat of preference. You argue defense matters in one breath and decry metrics that attempt to isolate its effects on pitcher performance.

    If all that truly matters to you is runs concerning understanding the game, then the box score tells the complete story for you. As boxes go, it's a very, very small one that if it were a minor leaguer, has an obvious low ceiling.

    So ya, shenanigans on steroids.
    Again, I said ERA has problems, and I enumerated them. The problems were the exact same ones you suggested that I ignored.

    Here's a link that might be helpful to you

    http://tutoring.sylvanlearning.com/f...TOKEN=47867961

    Btw, you might want to be careful, you're close to using up your "shenanigans" quota for the season. You might want to cut back, so you can use it when it actually applies
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    But peripherals also measure actual production, just different parts of it. All ERA tells you is that while a pitcher was on the mound, a certain number of "earned runs" crossed the plate per 9 innings. There are a lot of other variables in there -- I'm sure I don't have to enumerate them to you.

    Homer has not posted consistently elite ERA's for years because he hasn't been an elite level pitcher for that long. In 2013, though, his ERA lags behind the many other stats that suggest he has now attained that level.
    Peripherals don't measure all the things that matter in terms of run prevention, they are incomplete, just as the term suggests. Peripheral, not the full story.

    My argument is that history tells us that truly elite pitchers put up elite ERA's no matter what else is happening around them. They overcome luck and other issues to make sure that very few runners cross the plate. Bailey has yet to do that. He may. I hope he does. But until then, he's a potential elite pitcher, not an actual one.
    Last edited by 757690; 07-08-2013 at 01:00 AM.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Again, I said ERA has problems, and I enumerated them. The problems were the exact same ones you suggested that I ignored.

    Here's a link that might be helpful to you

    http://tutoring.sylvanlearning.com/f...TOKEN=47867961

    Btw, you might want to be careful, you're close to using up your "shenanigans" quota for the season. You might want to cut back, so you can use it when it actually applies
    Double bullseye shenanigans. The flaws pointed out are fatal yet you rail against better metrics. There is a comprehension issue but it isn't on my end.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    BTW, one call isolate exactly when Walt transitioned the Reds roster from defensive suckitude to one of the best defenses in the majors by looking at Aroyo's career as a Red.

    ERA is a crappy way to examine how a pitcher influences the only thing that matters.
    Arroyo's ERA as a Red:

    Code:
    2006	3.29
    2007	4.23
    2008	4.77
    2009	3.84
    2010	3.88
    2011	5.07
    2012	3.74
    2013	3.51
    He had his best year when the Reds had Lopez at SS, EE at 3B and Dunn in Left.
    He had his worst year, the year three Reds won Gold Gloves.
    2009, the year he improved his ERA by almost a full run, the Reds still had EE at 3B, Gonzales at SS and Gomes in LF. The real transformation to the Reds defense happened in 2010, a year after Arroyo's improved ERA.
    Last edited by 757690; 07-08-2013 at 01:01 AM.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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  19. #120
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    Re: Beyond the Box Score All-Stars: Interesting Reds choices and non-choices

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Double bullseye shenanigans. The flaws pointed out are fatal yet you rail against better metrics. There is a comprehension issue but it isn't on my end.
    The flaws aren't fatal, and easily corrected without going into peripherals.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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