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Thread: Michael Lorenzen

  1. #31
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    Just because we've had some good luck doesn't mean all starting pitching prospects pan out and flood your rotation. It pays to have as many rolls of the dice as possible. And starters are simultaneously capable of pitching in the bullpen. If you can keep both options available, the only reason to eliminate starting is to fast track someone, which unless you have a good reason for it, is shortsighted most the time.
    Just read through the May 31 MLB.com article on relief pitching. It explains why teams are beginning guys as relievers earlier. Among other things, it makes economic sense to sign relievers early, move them up quickly, and control them as major leaguers for several years.

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  3. #32
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Just read through the May 31 MLB.com article on relief pitching. It explains why teams are beginning guys as relievers earlier. Among other things, it makes economic sense to sign relievers early, move them up quickly, and control them as major leaguers for several years.
    Sure, if they are sure fire college relievers with no chance of starting, it makes perfect sense.

  4. #33
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Sure, if they are sure fire college relievers with no chance of starting, it makes perfect sense.
    The article does say that some colleges are themselves using good arms as relievers, given the pressure to win at that level. But major league scouts are also recommending some pitchers be drafted as relievers based on such factors as durability, body type, etc.

    This isn't being done blindly, judgments are being made. But some of these pitchers could eventually be good starters. Teams are taking that risk and using them in the pen.

    I think it's economics. While relievers are paid less than starters, late innings guys (Broxton?) can still be expensive. If you can fast track a live arm to the big leagues and control him for several years, it's worth using a few of your prospects that way. Anyway that seems to be the thinking.

  5. #34
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Just read through the May 31 MLB.com article on relief pitching. It explains why teams are beginning guys as relievers earlier. Among other things, it makes economic sense to sign relievers early, move them up quickly, and control them as major leaguers for several years.
    I think we have different ideas about economic sense. Prospects are vital to small market success and high upside arms don't just walk through the door all the time. Economic sense says to get the absolute most value you can out of them. It's not like you can't flip a starter like Wood for a shutdown bullpen arm if need be.

  6. #35
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    IMO, the Reds made this move with Lorenzen as a way to fast track him. The pen has been eating money and they want a cheap under control option ASAP IMO. Sam Lecure and Alfredo Simon become arb eligible after the season. Broxton and Marshall have cost increases and Chapman's cost sky-rockets after this year. I'm guessing the Reds plan on dealing from the pen for monetary reasons and to fill holes and are trying to create depth there to ease the process.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  8. #36
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Quote Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
    I think we have different ideas about economic sense. Prospects are vital to small market success and high upside arms don't just walk through the door all the time. Economic sense says to get the absolute most value you can out of them. It's not like you can't flip a starter like Wood for a shutdown bullpen arm if need be.
    According to mlb.com, your gripe isn't with me it's with MLB teams who are opting to fast track prospects whom they see as likely relievers.

    I think the teams realize that it costs a great deal of time and money to train every good arm to be a starting pitcher. And similarly, it costs a great deal of money to build a pen with veterans like Marshall and Broxton.

    And look at all the money wasted on relievers with mileage on their arms, Madson, Masset, possibly Marshall. Bill Bray who was so often sidelined.

    So on occasion they will fast track a kid for the bullpen. A controllable fresh and healthy arm that throws hard. I think it does make sense, yes.
    Last edited by Kc61; 08-18-2013 at 03:27 PM.

  9. #37
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Two points on this elite arm/reliever issue.

    1. Teams use almost every decent arm at first as a starter, even if they plan to use them as a reliever, simply to get them as many innings as possible, to speed up their development.

    2. There's a difference between guys who throw hard and guys with elite arms. If the guy shows any chance of developing decent off speed pitches, teams always keep them as starters until they fail in that area. But there are some guys who throw high 90's that are so far away from developing secondary pitches, that the smart move is to develop them as relievers. Lorenzen seems like a perfect example of that.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  10. #38
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Two points on this elite arm/reliever issue.

    1. Teams use almost every decent arm at first as a starter, even if they plan to use them as a reliever, simply to get them as many innings as possible, to speed up their development.

    2. There's a difference between guys who throw hard and guys with elite arms. If the guy shows any chance of developing decent off speed pitches, teams always keep them as starters until they fail in that area. But there are some guys who throw high 90's that are so far away from developing secondary pitches, that the smart move is to develop them as relievers. Lorenzen seems like a perfect example of that.
    Lorenzen has a pretty good breaking ball already.

  11. #39
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Lorenzen has a pretty good breaking ball already.
    You need three good pitches to make it as a starter.

    Lorenzen makes sense as a reliever due to his late start and inexperience as a pitcher. We're looking at three, four years of development for him as a starter vs. maybe one as a reliever. The problem with developing him as a reliever is if he just turns into a decent middle reliever, which is very possible. He needs to be a late inning reliever for it to pay off.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  12. #40
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    You need three good pitches to make it as a starter.

    Lorenzen makes sense as a reliever due to his late start and inexperience as a pitcher. We're looking at three, four years of development for him as a starter vs. maybe one as a reliever. The problem with developing him as a reliever is if he just turns into a decent middle reliever, which is very possible. He needs to be a late inning reliever for it to pay off.
    You generally need three pitches, but you said "But there are some guys who throw high 90's that are so far away from developing secondary pitches", and Lorenzen is already half way there. I just wanted to point out that he does have a good offspeed pitch at this point, since it could have been read that he didn't have anything but a fastball with your quote.

  13. #41
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    You need three good pitches to make it as a starter.

    Lorenzen makes sense as a reliever due to his late start and inexperience as a pitcher. We're looking at three, four years of development for him as a starter vs. maybe one as a reliever. The problem with developing him as a reliever is if he just turns into a decent middle reliever, which is very possible. He needs to be a late inning reliever for it to pay off.
    That's a good point.. but it's a judgement call.
    Hypothetically.. let's say the Reds feel a prospect has a 90% chance of being a decent middle reliever and a 25% chance of being an impact reliever.. all within a year or two.
    Or they could feel he has a 50% chance of being a back of rotation starter, 25% chance of being middle of the rotation starter, and it would take 4-5 years of development time.

    It seems in this scenerio, it would be better to make the guy a reliever and get him on the ML roster quickly. He could get an injury during that 4-5 years of minor league training. He could wash out as a starter, etc, etc

    As far as Lorenzen specifically, I don't mind them fast tracking him as a reliever. As someone else pointed out our "cheap" relievers are going to start getting expensive. Get him up here and contributing to this window.

    The other thing is, relievers are pretty highly valued now. If Lorenzen can get ready quickly, maybe we have an extra reliever at the 2014 trade deadline to fill another hole. Heck, maybe even Lorenzen himself can be the next Zach Stewart that fills a hole in the lineup.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #42
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Doug
    Have you seen Loenzen yet? How did he look vs what you had heard? He hasn't exactly thrived his last few times out so I hope they don't force rushing him too much.


    http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats...pbp&pid=547179

  15. #43
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    I'm not sure what the success rate is of converting college relievers to starters, there won't be a whole lot of data points, but I can see the argument for taking the short path to success given his age and relative lack of pitching experience. That doesn't mean I want the Reds to try it with people they really believe have a good chance of being good starting pitchers, though. But baseball is not one-size-fits-all.
    Not all who wander are lost

  16. #44
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    Just a tidbit.

    Marty said he talked to a scout that was looking at the Reds entire minor league system. He gave the scout's name over the radio, but I forgot.

    Anyhow, Marty said the Scout ranked the Reds' prospects as:

    1. Stephenson
    2. Lorenzen.

    Thought that was interesting.
    Marty went off on a tangent after that, so I never heard beyond #2.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  18. #45
    Member icehole3's Avatar
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    Re: Michael Lorenzen

    I've seen Lorenzen twice, he has a mid 90's fastball and very good slider that he has great control over, he can hit too. I see why he wants to play OF. Great athlete.


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