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Thread: All Star Game Selection Thread

  1. #91
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    What, what? Of course you should judge a trade AFTER it happens. Usually about 5 years after the fact is best, so we're still 2-3 years away from that for the Wood/Marshall trade, but I'm confident in saying the Cubs won that one big time.

    Doug, your rationale is baffling. It would be akin to a college football or college basketball fan saying "You don't judge a recruiting class on what they accomplish after they sign with the school, you judge the recruiting class based on what they did in high school."

    Or, to use a professional sports example, it would be like you saying, "You don't judge a free agent signing on what happens after the signing, you judge it based on what happened before the contract was signed." Because, I'm sure the Angels are loving all those stats Pujols put up for the Cardinals. That sure is helping them now that he stinks.

    I will say whoever was responsible for trading Frank Robinson years ago is fully on board with not judging trades after they happen.

    Wow, Doug. Will give you a mulligan on this one I suppose. But of course the best way to judge trades is after they happen. And sports fans/media do it all the time. We look back on trades and judge who won. Example: The Latos trade. We won that one.
    You can give me a mulligan if you want, but I won't ever use it. I stand strongly on what I said.

    If you trade for a guy with clean mechanics who can throw 97 MPH and has had good numbers in his career, then three weeks later he blows his shoulder out and he comes back and never tops 91 and can't get it done, does it mean you made a bad trade? Not in my mind. If we had a time machine would you take it back? Of course, but that doesn't mean it was a bad idea to make the trade, it just means it didn't work out.

    If I am playing blackjack and the dealer is showing a 5 and I am sitting on 10, I am going to double down on that. It was the right move. If the dealer flips over a 6 and then gets a 10 it doesn't mean I made a bad bet, it means it didn't work out. There is a big difference between a bad trade and a trade that didn't work out.

    I will judge a trade by how things looked at the time they were made and the information that was available at the time.

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  4. #92
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by DocRed View Post
    That would be sad as Bruce is better than him in almost every statistical category.
    If the Reds don't lose 3 straight at home in the playoffs to the Giants.....it wouldn't happen, but since the Giants won it all...it might.

  5. #93
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    You win a trade by making the playoffs. That's all that ever matters. Everything else is just fodder for talk radio and message boards.
    This makes no sense. So by this rationale, the Astros lost the Bagwell deal because the Red Sox made the playoffs with Larry Anderson?
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  6. #94
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You can give me a mulligan if you want, but I won't ever use it. I stand strongly on what I said.

    If you trade for a guy with clean mechanics who can throw 97 MPH and has had good numbers in his career, then three weeks later he blows his shoulder out and he comes back and never tops 91 and can't get it done, does it mean you made a bad trade? Not in my mind. If we had a time machine would you take it back? Of course, but that doesn't mean it was a bad idea to make the trade, it just means it didn't work out.

    If I am playing blackjack and the dealer is showing a 5 and I am sitting on 10, I am going to double down on that. It was the right move. If the dealer flips over a 6 and then gets a 10 it doesn't mean I made a bad bet, it means it didn't work out. There is a big difference between a bad trade and a trade that didn't work out.

    I will judge a trade by how things looked at the time they were made and the information that was available at the time.
    That's obviously your prerogative, just seems like a narrow-minded way of looking at things. I guess the Japanese and Germans can say they had the right plan in WWII even though things didn't quite work out how they expected. But they thought their plan was so great!

    Final result is all that matters. Let's be real here. Let's say at the time you thought the Reds were getting the short end of the Latos deal when it was made. Does that make it a bad trade for the Reds just because you (or anyone else) thought it was a bad trade at the time? Of course not. All that matters is the end result. I'm surprised I need to explain this to you.
    Last edited by Blitz Dorsey; 07-07-2013 at 10:47 PM.

  7. #95
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I suppose one could get their swagger on and say we "won" the Latos trade but will that still be the case when the players involved are no longer with their current teams?
    No need to go through all the theatrics. Let's keep it simple for the masses: We won the Latos trade. Period.

    Absolutely no need for anyone to "get their swagger on." Just analyze facts.

  8. #96
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    Interesting

  9. #97
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey View Post
    That's obviously your prerogative, just seems like a narrow-minded way of looking at things. I guess the Japanese and Germans can say they had the right plan in WWII even though things didn't quite work out how they expected. But they thought their plan was so great!

    Final result is all that matters. Let's be real here. Let's say at the time you thought the Reds were getting the short end of the Latos deal when it was made. Does that make it a bad trade for the Reds just because you (or anyone else) thought it was a bad trade at the time? Of course not. All that matters is the end result. I'm surprised I need to explain this to you.
    I am not even going to respond to your insane comparison to WWII....

    Final result isn't what matters to me. The process going in is what matters. If we traded Aristides Aquino tomorrow for Mike Trout it is a great trade, even if Trout lost his leg in a car wreck a week later and Aquino becomes an All-Star. It didn't work out, but it is a great trade.

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  11. #98
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    How can you say we "lost" the Marshall trade? We filled a crucial need, and the guy probably still has some mileage left on his left arm. Nobody that we gave the Cubs will be an impact major leaguer. The Cubs will flip Wood first chance they get because they know this run he's on won't last. Decent starter, but not a difference-maker.

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  13. #99
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    How can you say we "lost" the Marshall trade? We filled a crucial need, and the guy probably still has some mileage left on his left arm. Nobody that we gave the Cubs will be an impact major leaguer. The Cubs will flip Wood first chance they get because they know this run he's on won't last. Decent starter, but not a difference-maker.
    Not to mention that Travis Wood most likely would have been in the pen if he was still a Red. If a guy throwing 100 MPH couldn't sway the Reds to risk changing up the rotation, no way Travis Wood would have done so.

  14. #100
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread


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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Because all ballparks don't have the same dimensions and that can drastically alter "production". Of course, in some places you need to score more runs to win and in others less runs because the overall scoring environment varies.

    OPS+ attempts to equalize OPS for all of the parks that a player spends time in. Playing in the West (in either league) that isn't also Colorado or Texas, you are going to spend a lot of time playing in very large ballparks that are very tough on hitters production.

    You don't have to adjust for those things if you don't want to. I do though because I think it matters.
    Is there a "Total Bases +", since Walking and getting hit by a pitch should not be effected much by which ballpark you're in? Or, is that already taken into account with OPS+?

  16. #102
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: All Star Game Selection Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Is there a "Total Bases +", since Walking and getting hit by a pitch should not be effected much by which ballpark you're in? Or, is that already taken into account with OPS+?
    Walking actually does come into play by ballpark. Not much, but it does a little bit. For example, ballparks with large foul territory will hurt a players walk totals because some foul balls that extend counts turn into outs in those places. HBP, not so much.


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