For all the people who keep harping on the thing of getting Choo, Phillips, Votto & Bruce at the top of the order...have any of you taken a look at what that does to the rest of the batting order? Sure, it looks great seeing those 4 at the top and grouped together. But after the pitcher gets through with those 4...the remainder of the batting order becomes a walk in the park, no?
Let me be clear, I like trying to get my best hitters as many ab's as possible too. I get that concept. But I also look at our lineup from the perspective of the opposing pitcher too. Grouping them together like that (our best hitters) it seems to me it makes it easier on the opposing pitcher, because if he gets through that group (and there IS a good chance he will...simple odds) then it'll make it easier to get into a rhythm with a long line of easier outs in a row. I might not be explaining this as well as I like, but if you spread them out a bit more (your best hitters) you limit the "easy inning" opportunities for the opposing pitcher. I'm not just talking about l-r-l-r and stuff...but rather just the intensity and focus required of the pitcher when facing more difficult outs.
Just food for thought.
"Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013
You very well may be right....but just because a computer formula crunches out this "optimal" lineup and estimates it's run production doesn't make it work in the real world. So "nothing" is just a big ole' guess for an outcome here.
Sir Charles... I've never heard of an MLB manager scattering his top hitters because he feared the bottom of the order being too weak. What you say is essentially true (easier for the pitcher) but that doesn't mean you stick near-automatic outs in front of your best hitter to avoid it. That's a big reach IMO.
Rounding third and heading for home...
Last edited by BluegrassRedleg; 07-08-2013 at 03:05 AM.
Rounding third and heading for home...
Let's just throw out a hypothetical here.
Phillips grounds out, Choo to second.
Bruce pops out. Choo advances to third.
5th hitter flies out.
No runs score. This is not a stretch to expect to happen, right? We put some serious pressure on the pitcher here. That's a positive. We got some guys on base here. That's a positive. We worked up his pitch count. Another positive. And now for the crash back to earth.
Now the pitcher gets to regroup and start fresh against our 6, 7 & 8 hitters. Easy 1-2-3 inning. Pitcher gets into a nice rhythm. Next inning, starts off with the pitcher, quick out and builds on that rhythm. Focuses in to get 2 of the next 3 hitters. Next inning, he's got one tough out (Bruce), then a cake walk to build his rhythm...now we've got a pitcher who's feeling confident and is better than his stats portray him to be.
This is not something that is too hard to see happening.
I just think that spreading them out just a little bit (somewhat like Dusty already does) will make it harder for a pitcher to settle in over the long haul. Ideally, we'd have good hitters spread throughout the lineup, but I'm not in Fantasy-land. We're done with that part of Disney on our vacation. :O)
I may be completely wrong here...but I just think that it's not as cut and dry as the computer models make it out to be. There's alot to be said for a pitchers' state of mind and ease on the rubber.
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