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Thread: One simple fix that costs nothing

  1. #166
    Member Nasty_Boy's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I understand Mez's back was barking tonight, but my God it's tough to watch him attempt to play defense.
    The back may be the most debilitating injury out there. I give him huge props for sucking it up for 9 innings behind the plate. No way does he get any grief for tonight's performance.
    I know a lot of people are talking about his on-base percentage (.308 in 2008), but I like to think more in terms of him his in-scoring position percentage. - Our Beloved Manager

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  4. #167
    Member joshua's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Regarding optimized lineups... If you pay attention to the link earlier, it says that for optional run production Cozart should bat ninth and the pitcher eighth.

    That sure does sound familiar. LaRussa did a bit of that in St Louis and it worked out for him. He didn't do it because he was crazy, he didn't do it because he had shingles on his eyeballs or because steroids were rampant in every clubhouse he managed. He did it because math told him it would work, and it did.

    But none of that is going to happen here. Instead, we have to find more destructive solutions to the problems with the batting order, simply because Dusty is extremely stubborn.

    Dusty kept batting horrible players at leadoff not because of their numbers at the plate but because of the position they played on defense. In order to cure this, Walt had to go out and trade for a CF that fit the role. Therefore a player who could be a option off of the bench, and a productive everyday SS is playing baseball in Arizona. Now to fix the second spot in the lineup Walt will have to make a move for a SS who can hit second. And that probably won't happen until the offseason, when we will also have to address the problem of losing the CF we traded for to start fixing the top of the lineup in the first place.

    When a player doesn't produce, or never produces in a role and they're put in it over and over it stops being the player's fault after it's painfully obvious they aren't capable. If you put Al Roker in at cleanup every day it's not his fault he's not driving in runs. He's a weatherman for Christ's sake.
    Last edited by joshua; 07-09-2013 at 01:31 AM.

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    RedEye (07-09-2013)

  6. #168
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The great organizations in all sports find them.

    And if not a difference maker, somebody better than Derrick Robinson or Donald Lutz.

    A good righty platoon guy, when Heisey was out. A lefty bat with more power than XPaul. A veteran shortstop who can still hit the ball.

    It's really unbelievable to me how forgiving this fan base is. They only seem to get angry when a precious prospect is traded. Ronaldo Torreyes, Dave Sappelt get traded, that's what gets their passion. Donnie Joseph.

    You lose your cleanup hitter for most of the season, do something about it. Games like tonight get won with another bat in the lineup.
    Forgiving or realistic? Very rare for someone to be willing to be sellers earlier than the norm unless they are selling their version of Lutz or DRob. And that's a maybe.

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  8. #169
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Forgiving or realistic? Very rare for someone to be willing to be sellers earlier than the norm unless they are selling their version of Lutz or DRob. And that's a maybe.
    Please do not forget MANNY. MANNY can part the Ohio River if needed. MANNY, MANNY, MANNY...

    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

  9. #170
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Why not put Todd Frazier and his .334 OBP in the No. 2 spot?

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    Raisor (07-09-2013)

  11. #171
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Sir Charles,

    What would your everyday lineup be?
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  12. #172
    Member Marc D's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    I'm quite sure that given the All Star team lineup Dusty would find a way to minimize its effectiveness. That said, Walt had handed him 4-5 good hitters(depending on your view of Frazier)to fill 8 spots post RL injury.

    Reds wRC+ MLB rank by position (30th is worst):
    SS- 23rd
    LF- 25th
    C- 29th

    All 3 positions are required to come to the plate by the rules of the game so as I see it the problem with having the best five hit 1-5 is that they are, in reality, our only five.

    One injury resulting in that much dead wood in a lineup isn't just the managers fault.

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    klw (07-09-2013)

  14. #173
    Member Norm Chortleton's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    All 3 positions are required to come to the plate by the rules of the game so as I see it the problem with having the best five hit 1-5 is that they are, in reality, our only five.

    One injury resulting in that much dead wood in a lineup isn't just the managers fault.
    If you are an opposing pitcher, would you rather:

    1. Have to face the Reds' toughest hitters in a row?
    2. Have a breather like Cozart sprinkled in there where you know you can challenge him and get him out almost every time?

  15. #174
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    If you are an opposing pitcher, would you rather:

    1. Have to face the Reds' toughest hitters in a row?
    2. Have a breather like Cozart sprinkled in there where you know you can challenge him and get him out almost every time?
    Obviously the best 5, 1-5 is the best for that stretch. My question is what happens in the optimal lineup scenarios when 6-9 are essentially auto outs? Hows does overall run production fare?

    No facts to back this up but if you only had 2 out machines and a pitcher I'd try and go with the "one really bad inning" approach, jam them all down to 7,8,9 and see what happens in the long run. Unfortunately we have 4 and that seems like it would effect multiple innings.

    My vote is for fewer out machines.

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    _Sir_Charles_ (07-09-2013)

  17. #175
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The great organizations in all sports find them.

    And if not a difference maker, somebody better than Derrick Robinson or Donald Lutz.

    A good righty platoon guy, when Heisey was out. A lefty bat with more power than XPaul. A veteran shortstop who can still hit the ball.

    It's really unbelievable to me how forgiving this fan base is. They only seem to get angry when a precious prospect is traded. Ronaldo Torreyes, Dave Sappelt get traded, that's what gets their passion. Donnie Joseph.

    You lose your cleanup hitter for most of the season, do something about it. Games like tonight get won with another bat in the lineup.
    You act like it's easy to go find a cleanup hitter in the middle of the season. It's not.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  18. #176
    Member BungleBengals's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    If you are an opposing pitcher, would you rather:

    1. Have to face the Reds' toughest hitters in a row?
    2. Have a breather like Cozart sprinkled in there where you know you can challenge him and get him out almost every time?
    You also have to include the fact that the "breather" hitters also make things worse for the tougher hitters. They hit into double plays or hit pop ups that do not even advance runners. I would much rather have the 5 toughest hitters in a row to extend innings and score. We are not scoring the necessary runs to win games. It is like last year all over where if the other team scores more than 3 or 4 runs we knew it would be tough for us since we that would be considered a good night for us.

    Look at last night's game in the first inning. Yes Choo grounded out which will happen. But then Cozart flies out and we have one of the best hitters in baseball up with 2 outs and nobody on. He gets on and then Phillips and Bruce both single to bring him in. Now we have Frazier up with two on and two out. Which of course leads to a FC, but out of our top 5 hitters (Choo, Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Frazier) we managed to score a run and got 3 guys on base.
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  19. #177
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    Obviously the best 5, 1-5 is the best for that stretch. My question is what happens in the optimal lineup scenarios when 6-9 are essentially auto outs? Hows does overall run production fare?

    No facts to back this up but if you only had 2 out machines and a pitcher I'd try and go with the "one really bad inning" approach, jam them all down to 7,8,9 and see what happens in the long run. Unfortunately we have 4 and that seems like it would effect multiple innings.

    My vote is for fewer out machines.
    Very good point. Indeed, you can argue with the pitcher the Reds have five out machines.

    And since Phillips' OPS over the last month is .549 -- over that period arguably six out machines excluding backups.

    At some point you can't hide the not-so-good hitters by changing the order. The place seems to be swarming with them.

    For the season here is the list of Reds position players with major league OPS under .750: Frazier, Paul, Phillips, Mesoraco, Heisey, Robinson, Cozart, Hannahan, Hanigan, Lutz, Izturis, Miller, Rodriguez, Soto.

    There are three hitters above .750. You can name them. (Four with Ludwick.)
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-09-2013 at 02:50 PM.

  20. #178
    Member BungleBengals's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Marc D View Post
    Obviously the best 5, 1-5 is the best for that stretch. My question is what happens in the optimal lineup scenarios when 6-9 are essentially auto outs? Hows does overall run production fare?

    No facts to back this up but if you only had 2 out machines and a pitcher I'd try and go with the "one really bad inning" approach, jam them all down to 7,8,9 and see what happens in the long run. Unfortunately we have 4 and that seems like it would effect multiple innings.

    My vote is for fewer out machines.
    I have said this before but by having possibly 6-9 as "out machines" could work. The top of the lineup is going to get the hits and score the runs (most likely). Then just tell the 6-9 batters to work the count and get the PC up. Too many times this season have I seen a SP go into the 7th or the 8th against us with only 70 or 80 pitches. Seems that most teams' SP are their strengths and then we feast on their BP when they come in. Just seems like it would be a good strategy to try to force them out especially if we can get them out in the 6th inning so our 1-5 hitters can feast!
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  21. #179
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Sir Charles,

    What would your everyday lineup be?
    Choo
    Hanigan
    Votto
    Bruce
    Frazier
    Phillips
    Heisey
    Cozart
    Pitcher

    I like Hanigan's ability to put the bat on the ball to avoid the DP's. He k's very rarely and with him probably seeing more fastballs in front of Votto, his eye (which is outstanding) will work the count there IMO.

    But I'd change it around quite a bit based on the pitcher I'm facing or who was starting. I'm not a fan of the "plug and play" system that Dusty uses. But I understand it's purpose. When you're only swapping out one or two players, Dusty's way everyone else keeps their routines and comfort zones. I think that's overplayed somewhat.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  22. #180
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm Chortleton View Post
    If you are an opposing pitcher, would you rather:

    1. Have to face the Reds' toughest hitters in a row?
    2. Have a breather like Cozart sprinkled in there where you know you can challenge him and get him out almost every time?
    1. Because after Bruce you get a MAJOR breather. But I'm sure every pitcher will feel differently about this.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG


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