Regarding optimized lineups... If you pay attention to the link earlier, it says that for optional run production Cozart should bat ninth and the pitcher eighth.
That sure does sound familiar. LaRussa did a bit of that in St Louis and it worked out for him. He didn't do it because he was crazy, he didn't do it because he had shingles on his eyeballs or because steroids were rampant in every clubhouse he managed. He did it because math told him it would work, and it did.
But none of that is going to happen here. Instead, we have to find more destructive solutions to the problems with the batting order, simply because Dusty is extremely stubborn.
Dusty kept batting horrible players at leadoff not because of their numbers at the plate but because of the position they played on defense. In order to cure this, Walt had to go out and trade for a CF that fit the role. Therefore a player who could be a option off of the bench, and a productive everyday SS is playing baseball in Arizona. Now to fix the second spot in the lineup Walt will have to make a move for a SS who can hit second. And that probably won't happen until the offseason, when we will also have to address the problem of losing the CF we traded for to start fixing the top of the lineup in the first place.
When a player doesn't produce, or never produces in a role and they're put in it over and over it stops being the player's fault after it's painfully obvious they aren't capable. If you put Al Roker in at cleanup every day it's not his fault he's not driving in runs. He's a weatherman for Christ's sake.
Last edited by joshua; 07-09-2013 at 01:31 AM.
RedEye (07-09-2013)
RadfordVA (07-09-2013)
Why not put Todd Frazier and his .334 OBP in the No. 2 spot?
Raisor (07-09-2013)
Sir Charles,
What would your everyday lineup be?
I'm quite sure that given the All Star team lineup Dusty would find a way to minimize its effectiveness. That said, Walt had handed him 4-5 good hitters(depending on your view of Frazier)to fill 8 spots post RL injury.
Reds wRC+ MLB rank by position (30th is worst):
SS- 23rd
LF- 25th
C- 29th
All 3 positions are required to come to the plate by the rules of the game so as I see it the problem with having the best five hit 1-5 is that they are, in reality, our only five.
One injury resulting in that much dead wood in a lineup isn't just the managers fault.
klw (07-09-2013)
Obviously the best 5, 1-5 is the best for that stretch. My question is what happens in the optimal lineup scenarios when 6-9 are essentially auto outs? Hows does overall run production fare?
No facts to back this up but if you only had 2 out machines and a pitcher I'd try and go with the "one really bad inning" approach, jam them all down to 7,8,9 and see what happens in the long run. Unfortunately we have 4 and that seems like it would effect multiple innings.
My vote is for fewer out machines.
_Sir_Charles_ (07-09-2013)
You also have to include the fact that the "breather" hitters also make things worse for the tougher hitters. They hit into double plays or hit pop ups that do not even advance runners. I would much rather have the 5 toughest hitters in a row to extend innings and score. We are not scoring the necessary runs to win games. It is like last year all over where if the other team scores more than 3 or 4 runs we knew it would be tough for us since we that would be considered a good night for us.
Look at last night's game in the first inning. Yes Choo grounded out which will happen. But then Cozart flies out and we have one of the best hitters in baseball up with 2 outs and nobody on. He gets on and then Phillips and Bruce both single to bring him in. Now we have Frazier up with two on and two out. Which of course leads to a FC, but out of our top 5 hitters (Choo, Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Frazier) we managed to score a run and got 3 guys on base.
2015 Attendance 2-1 (4/6, 4/7,4/24)
2014 Attendance 1-3 (3/31, 4/12, 8/14)
2013 Attendance: 6-0 (4/3, 4/16, 4/17, 8/3, 8/21, 9/7)
Very good point. Indeed, you can argue with the pitcher the Reds have five out machines.
And since Phillips' OPS over the last month is .549 -- over that period arguably six out machines excluding backups.
At some point you can't hide the not-so-good hitters by changing the order. The place seems to be swarming with them.
For the season here is the list of Reds position players with major league OPS under .750: Frazier, Paul, Phillips, Mesoraco, Heisey, Robinson, Cozart, Hannahan, Hanigan, Lutz, Izturis, Miller, Rodriguez, Soto.
There are three hitters above .750. You can name them. (Four with Ludwick.)
Last edited by Kc61; 07-09-2013 at 02:50 PM.
I have said this before but by having possibly 6-9 as "out machines" could work. The top of the lineup is going to get the hits and score the runs (most likely). Then just tell the 6-9 batters to work the count and get the PC up. Too many times this season have I seen a SP go into the 7th or the 8th against us with only 70 or 80 pitches. Seems that most teams' SP are their strengths and then we feast on their BP when they come in. Just seems like it would be a good strategy to try to force them out especially if we can get them out in the 6th inning so our 1-5 hitters can feast!
2015 Attendance 2-1 (4/6, 4/7,4/24)
2014 Attendance 1-3 (3/31, 4/12, 8/14)
2013 Attendance: 6-0 (4/3, 4/16, 4/17, 8/3, 8/21, 9/7)
Choo
Hanigan
Votto
Bruce
Frazier
Phillips
Heisey
Cozart
Pitcher
I like Hanigan's ability to put the bat on the ball to avoid the DP's. He k's very rarely and with him probably seeing more fastballs in front of Votto, his eye (which is outstanding) will work the count there IMO.
But I'd change it around quite a bit based on the pitcher I'm facing or who was starting. I'm not a fan of the "plug and play" system that Dusty uses. But I understand it's purpose. When you're only swapping out one or two players, Dusty's way everyone else keeps their routines and comfort zones. I think that's overplayed somewhat.
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