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Thread: One simple fix that costs nothing

  1. #181
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Choo
    Hanigan
    Votto
    Bruce
    Frazier
    Phillips
    Heisey
    Cozart
    Pitcher

    I like Hanigan's ability to put the bat on the ball to avoid the DP's. He k's very rarely and with him probably seeing more fastballs in front of Votto, his eye (which is outstanding) will work the count there IMO.

    .
    Charles, this might have been fine in 2010. Maybe 2011-12. Hanigan can't hit second now. He will be a DP machine, he's very slow, hits 48% grounders, has 5 DPs this year in only 143 ABs hitting eighth (not behind a high OBP guy).

    The Hanigan you are discussing, unfortunately, is not the Hanigan of today. The Hanigan of today has a .293 OBP, a .196 BA and no power.

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  4. #182
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Charles, this might have been fine in 2010. Maybe 2011-12. Hanigan can't hit second now. He will be a DP machine, he's very slow, hits 48% grounders, has 5 DPs this year in only 143 ABs hitting eighth (not behind a high OBP guy).

    The Hanigan you are discussing, unfortunately, is not the Hanigan of today. The Hanigan of today has a .293 OBP, a .196 BA and no power.
    You may be right. But he asked me what I'd like to see, that's it.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
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  5. #183
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    This is what I think they should do that is at least somewhat within the realm of what Dusty might accept. It's not a huge improvement, but it's at least doing something reasonable given what they have to work with at this point. Besides grouping the team's best hitters together, this change also simply gives Frazier more at bats and Cozart fewer, which is good because Frazier's season and career OPS are about 100 points higher than Cozart's.

    Choo
    Frazier
    Votto
    Phillips
    Bruce
    LF -- Paul/Heisey/Robinson
    Cozart
    Catcher
    Pitcher

  6. #184
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by CesarGeronimo View Post
    This is what I think they should do that is at least somewhat within the realm of what Dusty might accept. It's not a huge improvement, but it's at least doing something reasonable given what they have to work with at this point. Besides grouping the team's best hitters together, this change also simply gives Frazier more at bats and Cozart fewer, which is good because Frazier's season and career OPS are about 100 points higher than Cozart's.

    Choo
    Frazier
    Votto
    Phillips
    Bruce
    LF -- Paul/Heisey/Robinson
    Cozart
    Catcher
    Pitcher
    I don't have a problem with this...or the corollary Choo>Phillips>Votto>Frazier>Bruce. In either respect, it would be Dusty's way of basically acknowledging that we need more offense, it basically has to come from Frazier, puts Frazier in a position to be successful, and if Frazier fails, then we aren't going to win. Frazier at least has upside - the potential to be a material contributor to the top half of the lineup. Cozart - though a potentially very useful part of a winning ballclub - doesn't.

  7. #185
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by CesarGeronimo View Post
    This is what I think they should do that is at least somewhat within the realm of what Dusty might accept. It's not a huge improvement, but it's at least doing something reasonable given what they have to work with at this point. Besides grouping the team's best hitters together, this change also simply gives Frazier more at bats and Cozart fewer, which is good because Frazier's season and career OPS are about 100 points higher than Cozart's.

    Choo
    Frazier
    Votto
    Phillips
    Bruce
    LF -- Paul/Heisey/Robinson
    Cozart
    Catcher
    Pitcher
    Frazier's ground ball rate has increased significantly this year. He also needs to hit in a spot where he can use his power and not worry too much about Ks. I'd pass on this one.

    IMO if we're stuck with this lineup, I would use the left fielders in the second spot. I'd hit Bruce fourth against righties and Phillips fourth against lefties. I'd hit Mes seventh/Cozart eighth; but I'd hit Cozart seventh and Hanigan eighth.

    The rest would be the same as now.

    I'd also play Izturis and Hannahan against righties a bit more often. They have both hit somewhat better lately against RHP.
    Last edited by Kc61; 07-09-2013 at 04:04 PM.

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  9. #186
    Member BungleBengals's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Why does Votto have to bat third? His walk rate doesn't drive in the runs. I think the most productive lineup would be:

    CF Choo
    1B Votto
    2B Phillips
    RF Bruce
    3B Frazier
    LF Heisey/Paul/Robinson
    C Hanigan/Mez
    SS Cozart
    P

    However, Dusty would never think of that so the best that we can hope for would be:

    Choo
    Heisey/Paul/Robinson
    Votto
    Phillips
    Bruce
    Frazier
    Cozart
    Hanigan/Mez
    P

    Which is still better than what we have now, but I like the first scenario more to score more runs.
    2013 Attendance: 6-0
    4/3/13, 4/16/13, 4/17/13, 8/3/13, 8/21/13, 9/7/13

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    RedEye (07-10-2013)

  11. #187
    Member BungleBengals's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    I used the ESPN lineup tool to compare the stats of each player with most ABs in a certain spot. I compared the Cardinals (most runs in NL) to our lineup. I then put them into Excel and compared strictly the averages and RBI's. I then found the percentage of RBI's coming from each spot and attached the results.

    I believe in putting our best hitteres in 1-5 and the worse one in 6-9. The best offense in the NL is using the same idea. The bulk of their RBI's and the best average hitters are all in the 1-5 with a decent option in the 6th spot in Freese. If we simply moved Cozart from 2nd to 7th or 8th, our lineup would be in the same scenario. Of course, our averages are no where near the averages of the Cards, but in terms of RBI's, which is what wins games, the percentages of total RBI's would coincide nicely with what the Cardinals' lineup has. Not to mention with Choo and Votto's walks and OBP they would set up nicely for Phillips and Bruce to knock them in.

    One of the concerns most people have are the RBI's for Votto, but no one pitches to him anyways so why not move him to 2nd spot where he can at least move Choo over if not get on base himself?
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    2013 Attendance: 6-0
    4/3/13, 4/16/13, 4/17/13, 8/3/13, 8/21/13, 9/7/13

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    RedEye (07-10-2013)

  13. #188
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Brandon in slot two with Frazier in slot four

    Then we can complain about slot four during down times and a catcher/cozart/pitcher combo

    Lineup needs some more consistent abs almost everywhere
    Yep.. Good point. With the Reds getting disappointing production from SS, C, and LF and only average production from 3b, it really doesn't matter how the lineup is juggled.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #189
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    For example, I'm sure batting 2nd might make a guy feel uncomfortable. And in Dusty's mental model, player comfort is a huge factor in what enables them to perform. But it's not like he's thinking, "Oh, if I move Frazier he'll hit .220/.290/.340, but that's still better than Cozart, so let's do it." Because he's thinking about how the clubhouse will feel about it, how Frazier will feel, how it will affect his arbitration, etc.
    .
    I know you are using this as an example, but maybe Dusty is thinking that it's good to have Frazier (an averagish bat, and RH) hitting behind Bruce.
    Because if Cozart or Hannigan is hitting behind Bruce, Bruce is going to be pitched around a lot. Frazier is probably better than any of the LFers on a given night as well.

    IMO, Frasier is better suited for the #6 hole than the #2 hole. Frasier is a 333 OBP guy with good power. That's good for driving in the runners ahead of him. Also Frazier isn't exactly a traditional #2 guy either (I realize Cozart is not either).. So.. you can improve the #2 slot, but you decimate the #6 in the process...

    The fix is to upgrade LF.. get a guy that can hit cleanup or an OBP guy that can hit #2.. Heisey/Paul aren't exactly well suited for #2 either.. although I can see the argument that they are better than Cozart.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #190
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    In the NL here are the average OPS numbers per slot:

    1 724
    2 708
    3 823
    4 797
    5 750
    6 718
    7 685
    8 658

    The way to be an above average offense is to have above average hitters versus the league.
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  16. #191
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    The problem with this thread title is the word "simple." When your manager is Dusty Baker, this fix is far from that.


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