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Thread: One simple fix that costs nothing

  1. #31
    8.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    I've seen Bruce make some improvements this year that give me at least cautious optimism that he won't be subject to as prolonged slumps as we've seen from him in the past.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

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  3. #32
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Switching people around right now feels like arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. OK, to be honest, this isn't a sinking ship, but the difference in the current lineup and maximum optimization would not improve a whole lot.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  4. #33
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    How about we just skip Cozart in the batting order. He can just play defense. Skip the catcher, pitcher and left fielder too.

    Choo
    Phillips
    Votto
    Bruce
    Frazier

    That's your new lineup. I don't think opposing teams will complain.

  5. #34
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Switching people around right now feels like arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. OK, to be honest, this isn't a sinking ship, but the difference in the current lineup and maximum optimization would not improve a whole lot.
    From what I've seen, the projection is that lineup maximization would add about 20 runs to the Reds' offense per season. That works out to about 2 extra wins or so, which could come in handy in September, to be sure.

    I've never understood the argument that "it won't be that much of a difference anyway." If there is any chance for a positive change, I'd like the team to make it pronto.
    Last edited by RedEye; 07-07-2013 at 09:32 PM.

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  7. #35
    8.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Switching people around right now feels like arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. OK, to be honest, this isn't a sinking ship, but the difference in the current lineup and maximum optimization would not improve a whole lot.
    If that's the case, why not draw lineups out of a hat each night, just to spice things up? Or have a fan contest to see who makes the lineup?

    Joking, of course, but I can't believe you truly think the difference would be negligible. How can it not help you to get someone on base in front of Joey F. Votto and guys like BP and Bruce who are having decent seasons?
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  8. #36
    8.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    From what I've seen, the projection is that lineup maximization would add about 20 runs to the Reds' offense per season. That works out to about 2 extra wins or so, which could come in handy in September, to be sure.

    I've never understood the argument that "it won't be that much of a difference anyway." If there is any chance for a positive chance, I'd like the team to make it pronto.
    Exactly. What's lost by doing so? Nothing.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  9. #37
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Dusty doesn't think Cozart should bat 2nd. He just can't imagine batting anybody else there on a regular basis. That's the problem. Any other combination simply forces him to think of using players outside of the roles he's already assigned them. So in his mind, he's got the lineup that puts the fewest guys out of "position". You guys are making an argument in a language Dusty doesn't speak.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #38
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Dusty doesn't think Cozart should bat 2nd. He just can't imagine batting anybody else there on a regular basis. That's the problem. Any other combination simply forces him to think of using players outside of the roles he's already assigned them. So in his mind, he's got the lineup that puts the fewest guys out of "position". You guys are making an argument in a language Dusty doesn't speak.
    That's why I would be really interested in seeing how the team would work without Dusty as the manager. Just kind of seems like they've outgrown him a bit, not exactly a great fit here anymore.
    They don't think it be like it is, but it do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Larry Schuler View Post
    He has also taught me that even when the Reds win it is important to focus on the fact that they could have lost.

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  12. #39
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Dusty doesn't think Cozart should bat 2nd. He just can't imagine batting anybody else there on a regular basis. That's the problem. Any other combination simply forces him to think of using players outside of the roles he's already assigned them. So in his mind, he's got the lineup that puts the fewest guys out of "position". You guys are making an argument in a language Dusty doesn't speak.
    It is a shame that he doesn't speak the language that most likely scores the most runs. What language would it take to make him hear what we're saying? We're on his side, really -- we just want the Reds to win, and stand to gain a lot less from it than he does if they do.

    Honestly, I wonder if he's ever heard these arguments and, if he has, whether he has ever thought seriously about them. It's not rocket science, and it's certainly not nerdy, pocket-protector stuff. It's just math that says he should do things differently.

  13. #40
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    It is a shame that he doesn't speak the language that most likely scores the most runs. What language would it take to make him hear what we're saying? We're on his side, really -- we just want the Reds to win, and stand to gain a lot less from it than he does if they do.

    Honestly, I wonder if he's ever heard these arguments and, if he has, whether he has ever thought seriously about them. It's not rocket science, and it's certainly not nerdy, pocket-protector stuff. It's just math that says he should do things differently.
    He won't. He understands baseball in a very different way; in many ways it gives him insights that we can't probably imagine. But the language of probabilities and maximizing opportunities simply takes too much of the "human" side of the game for Dusty to reorient himself. He's simply so well-versed in what he does know, that it's really hard to incorporate new information in a way that still makes sense and is properly weighted.

    For example, I'm sure batting 2nd might make a guy feel uncomfortable. And in Dusty's mental model, player comfort is a huge factor in what enables them to perform. But it's not like he's thinking, "Oh, if I move Frazier he'll hit .220/.290/.340, but that's still better than Cozart, so let's do it." Because he's thinking about how the clubhouse will feel about it, how Frazier will feel, how it will affect his arbitration, etc.

    Right or wrong, Dusty has a whole bunch of personal and clubhouse considerations that play a not-insignificant role in his "calculus", which likely doesn't include very much actually number crunching -- mostly just skill set fits and outputs like Runs and RBI.

    Suggesting that those slash line stats should be the #1, #2, and #3, driving forces behind the lineup and that the rest should matter pretty much only at the margins is a total non-starter.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  15. #41
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    The thing about this time is, I think the only place you can get noticeably better production from offensively from now to the rest of the season by adding somebody on offense is SS, and I don't see the Reds being able to acquire a SS.

    Sure Aramis Ramirez is a bit better than Frazier and you could get somebody who will be a bit better than Ludwick, but SS is the only position they could truly upgrade.

    And before somebody mentions Didi, he's been just as bad as Cozart the last few months.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldn’t do it." - Brad Kullman

  16. #42
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Dusty doesn't think Cozart should bat 2nd. He just can't imagine batting anybody else there on a regular basis.
    Precisely why Jocketty needed to "dustify" the roster before heading to his Arizona retirement community.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

  17. #43
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Precisely why Jocketty needed to "dustify" the roster before heading to his Arizona retirement community.
    He did, Ludwick got hurt.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldn’t do it." - Brad Kullman

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  19. #44
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    He understands baseball in a very different way; in many ways it gives him insights that we can't probably imagine.
    You mean like a whale or dolphin?
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

  20. #45
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    From what I've seen, the projection is that lineup maximization would add about 20 runs to the Reds' offense per season. That works out to about 2 extra wins or so, which could come in handy in September, to be sure.

    I've never understood the argument that "it won't be that much of a difference anyway." If there is any chance for a positive change, I'd like the team to make it pronto.
    In the Reds case we are talking four reliable hitters. Four.

    Three of them are already bunched up. Votto, Phillips, Bruce.

    Want to bunch them with Choo, go ahead. Nobody here is saying no.

    Think it will make much difference? Doubtful. It leaves five worse hitters all in a row.

    The Reds need a couple of additional good hitters. The batting order is not the real fix. It's a band aid, a minor upgrade.

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