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Thread: One simple fix that costs nothing

  1. #61
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    This is wonderful post. When you can find me an actual target that would help the Reds, then maybe you will have a point. However, "do something" isn't really a valid point.
    Sorry, Reds have had three months to pick up an outfielder. I don't have to name him.

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  3. #62
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    This will help...or something.

    RT @Ken_Rosenthal Sources: Francoeur down to three teams, including #Reds. Other two teams not known.
    Kill me

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  5. #63
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Kill me
    You don't think Jacoby can fix him? Lol

  6. #64
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    You don't think Jacoby can fix him? Lol
    Can't fix something that never worked

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  8. #65
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    Find me a target. I'm not asking you to work out a deal, show me somebody who you feel like is going to get traded that would improve LF.

    I think you're going to struggle to find one.
    Howzabout Alex Gordon?
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

  9. #66
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    No. There are about 150 outfielders in the MLB. I think there is one someplace to help the Reds. Chris Denorfia. Jeff Francoeur. Alex Rios. David DeJesus. Cody Ross. Aoki.
    One of these kids is not like the others. His name starts with a "J" ends with an "R" and has "eff Francoeu" in the middle.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  10. #67
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Can't fix something that never worked
    .800 OPS and back to back 100 RBI year

    47 doubles just a couple years ago

  11. #68
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    For all the people who keep harping on the thing of getting Choo, Phillips, Votto & Bruce at the top of the order...have any of you taken a look at what that does to the rest of the batting order? Sure, it looks great seeing those 4 at the top and grouped together. But after the pitcher gets through with those 4...the remainder of the batting order becomes a walk in the park, no?

    Let me be clear, I like trying to get my best hitters as many ab's as possible too. I get that concept. But I also look at our lineup from the perspective of the opposing pitcher too. Grouping them together like that (our best hitters) it seems to me it makes it easier on the opposing pitcher, because if he gets through that group (and there IS a good chance he will...simple odds) then it'll make it easier to get into a rhythm with a long line of easier outs in a row. I might not be explaining this as well as I like, but if you spread them out a bit more (your best hitters) you limit the "easy inning" opportunities for the opposing pitcher. I'm not just talking about l-r-l-r and stuff...but rather just the intensity and focus required of the pitcher when facing more difficult outs.

    Just food for thought.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  12. #69
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    For all the people who keep harping on the thing of getting Choo, Phillips, Votto & Bruce at the top of the order...have any of you taken a look at what that does to the rest of the batting order? Sure, it looks great seeing those 4 at the top and grouped together. But after the pitcher gets through with those 4...the remainder of the batting order becomes a walk in the park, no?

    Let me be clear, I like trying to get my best hitters as many ab's as possible too. I get that concept. But I also look at our lineup from the perspective of the opposing pitcher too. Grouping them together like that (our best hitters) it seems to me it makes it easier on the opposing pitcher, because if he gets through that group (and there IS a good chance he will...simple odds) then it'll make it easier to get into a rhythm with a long line of easier outs in a row. I might not be explaining this as well as I like, but if you spread them out a bit more (your best hitters) you limit the "easy inning" opportunities for the opposing pitcher. I'm not just talking about l-r-l-r and stuff...but rather just the intensity and focus required of the pitcher when facing more difficult outs.

    Just food for thought.
    Doesn't matter for overall run production if there are "easy" stretches of a lineup. The goal is getting your best hitters more AB's and getting a lot of guys on base in a row. Interrupting your good hitters with out machines is not ideal... Pretty much ever.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  13. #70
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Exactly. What's lost by doing so? Nothing.
    How do you know that? It could very easily make things worse. Sometimes we need to look beyond the numbers and realize that these are actual people and sometimes hitters simply don't perform well or feel comfortable in a specific spot due to the historical connotations involved with it. A "clean up hitter" has a traditional role. A "lead off hitter" has one too. Same with several of those.

    You very well may be right....but just because a computer formula crunches out this "optimal" lineup and estimates it's run production doesn't make it work in the real world. So "nothing" is just a big ole' guess for an outcome here.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  14. #71
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Sir Charles... I've never heard of an MLB manager scattering his top hitters because he feared the bottom of the order being too weak. What you say is essentially true (easier for the pitcher) but that doesn't mean you stick near-automatic outs in front of your best hitter to avoid it. That's a big reach IMO.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

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  16. #72
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Ironman92 View Post
    .800 OPS and back to back 100 RBI year

    47 doubles just a couple years ago
    You've probably learned that RBI don't mean much to certain RZ quadrants. The .800 OPS, I will admit, is the one part of Francoeur's resume that intrigues. However, based on the rest of his credentials, it looks like an outlier at this point. His career as a hitter makes Heisey look like a model of consistency, frankly.

  17. #73
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    How do you know that? It could very easily make things worse. Sometimes we need to look beyond the numbers and realize that these are actual people and sometimes hitters simply don't perform well or feel comfortable in a specific spot due to the historical connotations involved with it. A "clean up hitter" has a traditional role. A "lead off hitter" has one too. Same with several of those.

    You very well may be right....but just because a computer formula crunches out this "optimal" lineup and estimates it's run production doesn't make it work in the real world. So "nothing" is just a big ole' guess for an outcome here.
    I don't see a scenario in which it gets worse... unless you put Partch or the batboy in the 2 hole. Leake approaches ABs better than Cozart.
    Last edited by BluegrassRedleg; 07-08-2013 at 02:05 AM.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  18. #74
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Doesn't matter for overall run production if there are "easy" stretches of a lineup. The goal is getting your best hitters more AB's and getting a lot of guys on base in a row. Interrupting your good hitters with out machines is not ideal... Pretty much ever.
    And putting your out machines all in a row is not ideal either...pretty much ever. See my point?

    Let's just throw out a hypothetical here.

    Choo walks
    Phillips grounds out, Choo to second.
    Votto walks
    Bruce pops out. Choo advances to third.
    5th hitter flies out.

    No runs score. This is not a stretch to expect to happen, right? We put some serious pressure on the pitcher here. That's a positive. We got some guys on base here. That's a positive. We worked up his pitch count. Another positive. And now for the crash back to earth.

    Now the pitcher gets to regroup and start fresh against our 6, 7 & 8 hitters. Easy 1-2-3 inning. Pitcher gets into a nice rhythm. Next inning, starts off with the pitcher, quick out and builds on that rhythm. Focuses in to get 2 of the next 3 hitters. Next inning, he's got one tough out (Bruce), then a cake walk to build his rhythm...now we've got a pitcher who's feeling confident and is better than his stats portray him to be.

    This is not something that is too hard to see happening.

    I just think that spreading them out just a little bit (somewhat like Dusty already does) will make it harder for a pitcher to settle in over the long haul. Ideally, we'd have good hitters spread throughout the lineup, but I'm not in Fantasy-land. We're done with that part of Disney on our vacation. :O)

    I may be completely wrong here...but I just think that it's not as cut and dry as the computer models make it out to be. There's alot to be said for a pitchers' state of mind and ease on the rubber.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  19. #75
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    I may be completely wrong here...but I just think that it's not as cut and dry as the computer models make it out to be. There's alot to be said for a pitchers' state of mind and ease on the rubber.
    I see what you are saying about individual situations. And, of course, we don't know how it would play out in a specific game, week or season. That's baseball. But... what the lineup optimizer does do is tell you that you are maximizing your odds for producing runs. To me, that's where you want to be.


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