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Thread: One simple fix that costs nothing

  1. #76
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    I just don't follow your logic here, Sir Charles. You're re-writing the historic baseball philosophy with that one.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

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  3. #77
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I see what you are saying about individual situations. And, of course, we don't know how it would play out in a specific game, week or season. That's baseball. But... what the lineup optimizer does do is tell you that you are maximizing your odds for producing runs. To me, that's where you want to be.
    No, what that lineup maximizer is telling you is what your odds are for producing runs with a reorganized lineup IF EVERYONE PRODUCES EXACTLY AS THEY HAVE BEEN. Once you reorganize them...you don't know how they'll produce as the situations have changed. If this game was as easy as the computer models made it out to be, everyone would be following them. It's not. Some hitters handle pressure situations better than others, some batting slots induce more pressure situations than others. Handedness does matter, probably not as much as many think, but it does and that also plays a role whether we want it to or not.

    I'm not against the use of computer models and such...but I am against it when people come out and state that by following such a model our run output would increase by such and such per game...because that's just crap and a flat out guess based on speculation. It's just more information. Not a bad thing, but also not something to take as gospel on how things should be done.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

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  5. #78
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    Howzabout Alex Gordon?
    He's not available. They love him in KC and they aren't that far from contending.
    numbersinthereds.blogspot.com I actually made a post on 7/24/14. I promise.

  6. #79
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    I just don't follow your logic here, Sir Charles. You're re-writing the historic baseball philosophy with that one.
    Let me be clear, I'm not saying I want Cozart in the 2 hole. I'm simply saying that you can't just look at the top 4 hitters and put all your focus on that portion of the lineup without realizing what the impact will be on the REST of the lineup. If I was a pitcher facing the Reds, I'd much rather face those 4 guys in a row and then all the weak hitters in a row. I think it would make my job MUCH easier.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  7. #80
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    You might want to sleep on this on Sir.

    Some of your subpoints make sense but the whole not wanting to stack your best hitters together is quite puzzling.

  8. #81
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    And putting your out machines all in a row is not ideal either...pretty much ever. See my point?

    Let's just throw out a hypothetical here.

    Choo walks
    Phillips grounds out, Choo to second.
    Votto walks
    Bruce pops out. Choo advances to third.
    5th hitter flies out.

    No runs score. This is not a stretch to expect to happen, right? We put some serious pressure on the pitcher here. That's a positive. We got some guys on base here. That's a positive. We worked up his pitch count. Another positive. And now for the crash back to earth.

    Now the pitcher gets to regroup and start fresh against our 6, 7 & 8 hitters. Easy 1-2-3 inning. Pitcher gets into a nice rhythm. Next inning, starts off with the pitcher, quick out and builds on that rhythm. Focuses in to get 2 of the next 3 hitters. Next inning, he's got one tough out (Bruce), then a cake walk to build his rhythm...now we've got a pitcher who's feeling confident and is better than his stats portray him to be.

    This is not something that is too hard to see happening.

    I just think that spreading them out just a little bit (somewhat like Dusty already does) will make it harder for a pitcher to settle in over the long haul. Ideally, we'd have good hitters spread throughout the lineup, but I'm not in Fantasy-land. We're done with that part of Disney on our vacation. :O)

    I may be completely wrong here...but I just think that it's not as cut and dry as the computer models make it out to be. There's alot to be said for a pitchers' state of mind and ease on the rubber.
    In this hypothetical Bruce comes to bat with 2 on and 1 out. That's awesome.

  9. #82
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    No, what that lineup maximizer is telling you is what your odds are for producing runs with a reorganized lineup IF EVERYONE PRODUCES EXACTLY AS THEY HAVE BEEN.
    You are conflating actual production with projections. Of course it isn't a guarantee. Neither are the odds in Vegas, but people use them because they have a certain % likelihood of success.

    These are projections based on statistical probabilities. I prefer to put my money on a system that calculates run production based on the career norms of players and what they will do when put together in a certain order. That system says that 1000 games of a Choo-Votto-Bruce-Phillips lineup will outproduce 1000 games of a Choo-Cozart-Votto-Phillips lineup.

  10. #83
    RaisorZone Raisor's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    The following lineup would be above average at every lineup spot except 8 (based on NL ops)

    Lineup spot ops NL average
    1 Frazier 744 727
    2 Paul 727 709
    3 Votto 943 823
    4 Choo 872 792
    5 Bruce 821 750
    6 Phillips 735 724
    7 Rocco 698 683
    8 Cozart 631 659
    "But I do know Joey's sister indirectly (or foster sister) and I have heard stories of Joey being into shopping, designer wear, fancy coffees, and pedicures."

  11. #84
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    You might want to sleep on this on Sir.

    Some of your subpoints make sense but the whole not wanting to stack your best hitters together is quite puzzling.
    I do like stacking our best hitters together...but not if that means stacking your worst hitters together and possibly making the WHOLE worse than the sum of the parts.

    When our good hitters are only getting on around 35% of the time and our bad hitters are getting on around 25% of the time...is that difference really going to make a positive difference over the course of a game when it allows a pitcher to regroup as I described? I'm not so sure.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  12. #85
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    In this hypothetical Bruce comes to bat with 2 on and 1 out. That's awesome.
    Yes it is. And he still makes an out like around 70% of the time. Hitting is hard. So yes it does allow for a chance to score. But having someone else in that spot (no I'm not suggesting hitting someone in Bruce's spot exactly), the odds of making an out increase by what...5%? 10? But those odds depend upon sooooooo many different factors that to just state a percentage is kinda nuts. How is the pitcher throwing that day? How does that batter fare against that particular pitcher? Handedness differences? Batter on a hot streak or struggling? Day or night game? How long since a day off? etc, etc, etc, etc. A lineup optimizer doesn't take all that stuff into consideration.

    And after all that is said and done, the odds of scoring there still aren't great. But the odds of us NOT scoring the following inning are VERY good. And the next inning.

    My point is that it's not as simple as many here are making it out to be. And Dusty may not be as wrong as many here are making him out to be either.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  13. #86
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    I was saving this because I know the discussion angst it causes but it's interesting. Note, I wrote this after yesterday's game so I don't believe it includes that. Nevertheless:

    I know it's a curiosity but I plugged Dusty's most common lineup into the Baseball Musing's lineup tool and it said that lineup should product 391.587 runs through 87 games.

    The Reds have produced 384 runs through 87 games.

    The lineup tool said the most optimal lineup would produce 4.825 runs per game or 419.775 runs to this point: 35 more than we have which is about 3.5 wins.

    (Note, we are 3.5 games back in the standings.)

    If Dusty moved Cozart to 7th and everyone else up one spot, it predicts 4.630 runs/game or 402.81 runs up to this point. 18 runs or almost 2 wins more.

    Givens:

    • I used this year's stats so far
    • It's a curiosity, yes, I understand this

    While I'm all for getting better players, I think there's a (some superlative between nominal and significant) improvement gained by moving Cozart down in the lineup.

    Mock if you must. Discuss if you can.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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    joshua (07-09-2013), RedEye (07-08-2013), RichRed (07-08-2013)

  15. #87
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    You are conflating actual production with projections. Of course it isn't a guarantee. Neither are the odds in Vegas, but people use them because they have a certain % likelihood of success.

    These are projections based on statistical probabilities. I prefer to put my money on a system that calculates run production based on the career norms of players and what they will do when put together in a certain order. That system says that 1000 games of a Choo-Votto-Bruce-Phillips lineup will outproduce 1000 games of a Choo-Cozart-Votto-Phillips lineup.
    No, I'm not confusing them. It's projections based upon actual production. There's the problem. Depending on situations (batting order) the production is certain to change. You can't just juggle things around and expect the same results.

    If people would say that there's a CHANCE of a 20 run per year increase...no big deal. But that doesn't happen here. There's just as equal of a chance that we score 20 FEWER runs a year with whatever proposed lineup is thrown out there. It's a coin flip.

    And the problem again is with what you just typed. You only listed the top 4. Of course those 4 would produce better than the version with Cozart in there all things being equal. But when taken as a whole...it's MUCH less certain because you simply don't know how certain players will produce in certain spots in the bating order.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  16. #88
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    I'd want Cozart moved even if it meant scoring one more run per season. I know the numbers aren't everything, but they agree that this change is almost 100% likely to increase scoring -- and probably by much more than that. I think the Baseball Musings projection of 35 more runs is a bit too optimistic, but I think most of the players would get behind the idea of changing lineup "roles" if it meant more chances to win.

    I find the counter-arguments don't have much to say other than some vague notion of how a change would affect the team psychologically. Well, knowing that your manager has studied run production in every way possible would be comforting to many players, too. I can't imagine someone like Votto is unaware of the probabilities. He's just keeping his mouth shut because it is bad form to break the chain of command.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  17. #89
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    The following lineup would be above average at every lineup spot except 8 (based on NL ops)

    Lineup spot ops NL average
    1 Frazier 744 727
    2 Paul 727 709
    3 Votto 943 823
    4 Choo 872 792
    5 Bruce 821 750
    6 Phillips 735 724
    7 Rocco 698 683
    8 Cozart 631 659
    That lineup would be above average at every spot IF THEY MAINTAINED THAT PRODUCTION IN THAT NEW SPOT.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  18. #90
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: One simple fix that costs nothing

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    That lineup would be above average at every spot IF THEY MAINTAINED THAT PRODUCTION IN THAT NEW SPOT.
    SC, these lineups are computed using the career stats of players. The slot a player hits in the order has minimal effect on his own stats, which usually will trend toward those career norms. What it does do is change the order in which those stats take place. That changes the situations in which your best hitters come to the plate.

    The most painful example of this every day for me is when Cozart comes up with two out and Votto in the on-deck circle.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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